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RE: Stage Analysis Beginners Questions - isatrader - 2020-10-30
(2020-10-30, 06:03 PM)miche Wrote: Just curious what you'd recommend a beginner to focus on. I don't have a lot of time and sometimes feel a wee bit overwhelmed with everything to learn.
How do you use IBD? Is it wrong to pick a stock with good rating and in stage 2? Reviewing fundamentals is overwhelming to say the least. I like to read Seeking Alpha as well.
I'm reading O'Neils book and it's not as easy as Stan's. Thinking switching to Mark's for the time being. O'Neil uses 50MA whereas Stan it's 30MA confused on which and why.
I try to draw support and resistance on my charts and still learning how to read the patterns and practice. Plan on re-viewing class on Udemey and re-reading Stan's book. Thanks!!!
If you are using IBD then a simple rule is to only focus on stocks with a strong composite rating. O'Neil said in one of his interviews that almost every one of the model stocks had a rating of 87 or greater when they broke out of their first base. Which would be the initial Stage 2 continuation breakout in Stage Analysis. Not the Stage 2A breakout, as that's early than O'Neil focuses on.
I'd say take it one at a time, as information overload won't help you. I always suggest for beginners to focus on learning a single entry type first, which is the Stage 2 continuation breakout from either base 1 or base 2 following the Stage 2A breakout. Look for a Volatility Contraction Pattern (VCP) - see Minervini's book for detailed instructions. As this will give you the lowest risk setup if you do it properly. Study it, practice it, manage your risk and learn from your mistakes.
"I don't fear the man who has practiced 10,000 kicks. I fear the man who practiced one kick 10,000 times."
Hope that helps
RE: Stage Analysis Beginners Questions - JordanBrogan - 2020-10-30
(2020-10-30, 07:02 PM)isatrader Wrote:Thank you!!(2020-10-30, 05:40 PM)JordanBrogan Wrote: Hi, Sorry to be a noob and a pest. Im trying to put everything into practise without making too many beginner errors
Would the 2 attached charts be start of stage 2 ?
Am i right in thinking that MGI would be good to enter now as its got good volume and no near resistance
However UAA needs more volume to break the resistance before considering entering ?
First you need to use weekly charts when determining the Stages, and get your chart settings right. As the weekly chart uses the 30 week MA and 10 week MA.
Both are in early Stage 2A, but UAA is what we'd consider a low quality Stage 2, as it is still under significant zone of resistance, and the Relative Strength versus the S&P 500 is still below a declining zero line. So would likely need a lot more time before it was considered under the method. Probably another 6 months or more to get away from the resistance.
MGI was better, but its already move almost 50% above the breakout point. So you would be waiting for the initial Stage 2 pullback / next base to form for a potential entry.
RE: Stage Analysis Beginners Questions - miche - 2020-11-01
Thanks! Yeah was just listening to an interview w Minervini interview where he says we can't be everything TA, fundamentals etc. I think that's where it gets overwhelming. Thanks very helpful. I just re-review Udemy class and it's helpful to repeat information. Read a chapter on VCP and watched some you tube videos explaining it. Kinda of cool I can see the pattern. Going to aim to review more charts! Thanks again!
RE: Stage Analysis Beginners Questions - JordanBrogan - 2020-11-03
Hi,
Im using the free trial on stock charts.com
Is there a script to show stage 1, starting into stage 2 ?
Also what script is used for ISA's daily screens ?
Thank you all - think I'm starting to pick it up and understand it better, however not found a stock I'm happy about yet so not buying for the sake of having a open position
Jordan
RE: Stage Analysis Beginners Questions - isatrader - 2020-11-03
(2020-11-03, 01:48 AM)JordanBrogan Wrote: Hi,
Im using the free trial on stock charts.com
Is there a script to show stage 1, starting into stage 2 ?
Also what script is used for ISA's daily screens ?
Thank you all - think I'm starting to pick it up and understand it better, however not found a stock I'm happy about yet so not buying for the sake of having a open position
Jordan
No, you have to work out the Stages for yourself I'm afraid. It's takes practice. But once you learn to identify the characteristics of the stages, it's easy to run through the charts visually in 10 per page view in stockcharts and delete all of the stocks that don't meet the requirements.
I run multiple scans each day (around six) and merge the results into a single chartlist and then run through the results in 10 per page view and delete all the stocks that aren't interesting.
You can find the majority of the scans that I run in the Code for Stock Scanners Thread
RE: Stage Analysis Beginners Questions - JordanBrogan - 2020-11-04
(2020-11-03, 04:04 PM)isatrader Wrote:(2020-11-03, 01:48 AM)JordanBrogan Wrote: Hi,
Im using the free trial on stock charts.com
Is there a script to show stage 1, starting into stage 2 ?
Also what script is used for ISA's daily screens ?
Thank you all - think I'm starting to pick it up and understand it better, however not found a stock I'm happy about yet so not buying for the sake of having a open position
Jordan
No, you have to work out the Stages for yourself I'm afraid. It's takes practice. But once you learn to identify the characteristics of the stages, it's easy to run through the charts visually in 10 per page view in stockcharts and delete all of the stocks that don't meet the requirements.
I run multiple scans each day (around six) and merge the results into a single chartlist and then run through the results in 10 per page view and delete all the stocks that aren't interesting.
You can find the majority of the scans that I run in the Code for Stock Scanners Thread
Thank you again!
RE: Stage Analysis Beginners Questions - miche - 2020-11-04
Are your screens focusing on Stage 2 continuation breakout? If we're looking for an early Stage 2A we'd screen for stage one right?
I'm looking for an entry in TSM and it looks like it's breaking resistance and volume looks good on two hour chart but Relative Strength line is pointing downwards. I'm I missing something? Thanks
Looking at IBD the average volume is -11% so I guess I answered my own question I would wait until the volume increased?
RE: Stage Analysis Beginners Questions - isatrader - 2020-11-07
(2020-11-04, 06:41 PM)miche Wrote: Are your screens focusing on Stage 2 continuation breakout? If we're looking for an early Stage 2A we'd screen for stage one right?
I'm looking for an entry in TSM and it looks like it's breaking resistance and volume looks good on two hour chart but Relative Strength line is pointing downwards. I'm I missing something? Thanks
Looking at IBD the average volume is -11% so I guess I answered my own question I would wait until the volume increased?
My screens look for multiple things. So they cover stocks in Stages 1 and 2. But they all focus on strong relative strength and rising moving averages etc. I've found when looking for early entries points, like Stage 2A, that sometimes its easiest to just go through all the charts in a particular group that you are focusing on visually. As sector themes can be one of the strongest indicators that a Stage 2A breakout will work. As if multiple stocks in the same group are all shaping up in the same way, and ready to breakout or already breaking out into Stage 2 on increased volume across the group. Then it's a good sign that the Stage 2 advance will succeed.
TSM is in a reasonably good position, but volume has only remained around average this week as many stocks have been exploding higher. So although technically in good shape. It's not showing strong demand as yet. Although that may come in if it attempts to breakout next week to new highs. But you want to see at least a 50% increase in daily volume on a breakout, but ideally 2 or 3 times at least. So 100% or more than the 50 day average volume. As that increased demand is what will drive a stock higher for more than just a day or two.