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Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis and Market Breadth - Technical Analysis - Printable Version

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RE: Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis - Discussion Thread - isatrader - 2013-03-18

Attached are the updated US Industry Sector Charts and relative performance table.

[Image: attachment.php?aid=492]

RE: Market Breadth Update - isatrader - 2013-03-20

The short, medium and long term moving average breadth charts are breaking below their 10 week EMAs and recent swing lows, as you can see in the bottom three boxes on the attached chart. So it's flashing a warning sign.

[Image: attachment.php?aid=512]

Cumulative P&F Breakouts - Breakdowns - isatrader - 2013-03-22

The breakdowns slightly beat the breakouts for a change with 16 breakouts and 17 breakdowns this week in the S&P 500, giving a flat profile for this weeks action on the cumulative chart. The oscillator chart, which shows the same cumulative data, but in a flattened format relative to the 20 day MA, tells a slightly different story, as it looks to have put in a lower high relative to the 20 day MA, which I'm using as the signal line. So although it's above the 20 day MA still, I'm moving my rating for this one to a neutral bear alert status, due to the divergence and loss of momentum in the breakouts. Attached is the charts.

Volatility Breadth Charts - isatrader - 2013-03-23

Attached is the updated volatility breadth charts, which continue to be on the sell side of the 50 day MA. The $NYA/$BPNYA has joined the other three this week, and is now also above it's 50 day MA, however they are all still below their February swing highs and so to go to "Bear Confirmed" status I want to see a weekly close above that, and hence for the time being I'd rate them as flashing a "Bear Alert" warning.

Advance Decline Breadth Charts - isatrader - 2013-03-23

Attached is the updated Advance Decline Breadth Charts, including the cumulative AD line, momentum index, cumulative AD volume line, 10 Day AD oscillator, NYSE Volume Advancing / Volume Declining Ratio etc.

Notes:
  • The Advance Decline Line continues to make new highs
  • Momentum Index has reached levels not seen since early 2010
  • The Advance Decline 10 Day and 30 day MAs remain on a bull signal
  • The flattened cumulative AD line to the 200 day EMA is testing it's trendline support from the last four months, but is still near the top of it normal range.
  • The Advance Decline 10 Day MA Oscillator has pulled back to neutral levels
  • The Advance Decline MACD line is testing it's trendline support and looks to have made a lower high
  • Cumulative AD volume line is still behaving inline with the straight AD line and is well above it's 50 day MA still.


New Highs New Lows - isatrader - 2013-03-23

Attached is the New Highs / New Lows set of charts which slowed a bit this week, but there's no major changes to be aware of yet. New lows finished the week at only 14, so until this picks up these remain on the bullish side imo.

Effective Volume Update - isatrader - 2013-03-23

Attached is the updated Effective Volume charts from http://www.effectivevolume.com of the SPY, QQQ and IWM ETFs. It was a fairly flat week for the effective volume until Friday near the close which saw a spike higher in the SPY and QQQ volumes, and so although in neutral territory imo, I'll be watching to see if they can breakout once more next week, or whether the divergences that I can see will lead to a breakdown instead.

US Industry Sectors Breadth - isatrader - 2013-03-23

It was a mostly down week for the individual sectors breadth with 7 of the 9 sectors with more stocks declining below their 150 day MA than were rising above it. There was no big moves in any of the sectors, but 4 of the 9 went to a sell signal as they closed below their 10 week MAs - which I use as the signal line. So as you can see on the sector visual diagram the picture is looking a lot more toppy with slightly more negative sectors than bullish sectors and the majority still trading in the higher risk zone.

Industrials remains the strongest sector, with the weakest sector still Basic Materials, which has continued to decline this week to near it's 50% level.

Below is the data table for the Percent of Stocks Above 150 Day Moving Average in each sector which I've ordered by relative strength, with the highest to the lowest percentage in each sector. Also attached is the visual diagram of the 9 sectors and the overall NYSE Percentage of Stocks above their 150 day Moving Averages, plus the 1% P&F chart and line chart of the nine sectors.

[Image: attachment.php?aid=585]