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Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis and Market Breadth - Technical Analysis - Printable Version

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RE: Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis - isatrader - 2013-12-09

(2013-12-09, 03:23 PM)Tryst Wrote: Where did you generate that first chart? Also, what is the difference between the two charts. I know they are giving different readings, but I am failing to see the variables that is making them read different.

Go to http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?$SPX,XLY,XLF,XLK,XLI,XLE,XLB,XLP,XLV,XLU and you can change the symbols to whatever you want. But to get the histogram chart view you need to click on the "Show Histogram Chart" button under the chart, bottom left.

It's the same chart, but on the second chart I clicked on the $SPX tab, just above the chart - top left, which makes that symbol the baseline, and hence the other readings are then shown relative to that. i.e. Cyclicals were up 32.97% and S&P 500 was up 21.32%, so therefore 32.97% - 21.32% = 11.65%, which you can see on the second chart.

Hopefully that makes sense. But basically you can show any symbol and use that as the baseline, and you can also change the timescale at the bottom using the slider.

RE: Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis - Tryst - 2013-12-09

got it. Thanks, isatrader!

Advance Decline Breadth Charts - Warning Signs - isatrader - 2013-12-10

The Advance Decline Cumulative 10 day and 30 day moving averages had a negative crossover today, and the other measures continue to look quite weak currently. So it's needs a quick recovery like the last few breakdowns had or there could be trouble ahead. So a warning sign to keep an eye on.

RE: Market Breadth Extra - Tryst - 2013-12-10

Hi isatrader, thanks for the market breadth updates. I am just catching up with them as have been away for a bit recently.

Yesterday I came across this website which produces a 'market health update' (I believe each week). It seems like it is taken from the Financial Sense website, and Chris Paplava is the author. One thing I think could be useful for us on this site as another breadth indicator is digging down into the S&P internal (whether this is something that Stain Weinstein is referring to in his recent December 2013 interview on Financial news hour when is says 'Proprietary Secondary Surveys'...I am not sure. Have a look at the chart which covers the 'Index 52 Week Breadth' for the S&P 500, 400, 600 and 1500 and shows a chart with the stocks that are within 2% of 52 week highs against those more than 20% (bear market) off their 52 week highs.

[Image: 07.jpg]

http://www.elliottwaveanalytics.com/2013/12/markets-health-update-momentum-continues-to-weaken/

RE: Market Breadth Extra - isatrader - 2013-12-10

(2013-12-10, 01:14 AM)Tryst Wrote: ...One thing I think could be useful for us on this site as another breadth indicator is digging down into the S&P internal (whether this is something that Stan Weinstein is referring to in his recent December 2013 interview on Financial news hour when is says 'Proprietary Secondary Surveys'...I am not sure

The Proprietary Surveys he mentioned in the interviews are explained briefly in the book in the footnote on page 76 and chart on page 77. But basically Weinstein and his staff mark down the stages of every stock in the S&P 500 and the small and mid caps. So it covers the S&P 1500 mostly these days. But when the book was written in 1988 it used to be called the NYSE Survey, so was obviously broader back then.

What it is, is the percentage of stocks in Stages 1 & 2 in those markets, and works in exactly the same way as the NYSE percentage of stocks above their 150 day (30 week) moving averages chart that I show each week on here. Weinstein was asked about the correlation between his Proprietary Surveys and NYSE percentage of stocks above their 150 day (30 week) moving averages chart in the 1997 Technically Speaking interview on page 439, and he said that in his opinion that they have around a 75% to 80% correlation to his Proprietary Surveys. Which could be heard in this weekends interview that mentioned that two thirds of the market in his survey were in Stages 1 & 2, which compares to the weekend reading of the NYSE percentage of stocks above their 150 day (30 week) moving averages chart of 64.15%

So the moving average breadth charts are the closest thing that we have to his Proprietary Surveys of Stage 1 and Stage 2 stocks without a $10,000 a year subscription, and do a very good job of keeping us on the same path as Weinstein's subscribers.

RE: Market Breadth Extra - Tryst - 2013-12-10

thanks for the response, isatrader.

it costs even more for institutional investors per year doesn't it? Around 70-80$ thousand I think i have read somewhere.

Good night

RE: Market Breadth Extra - isatrader - 2013-12-10

(2013-12-10, 02:06 AM)Tryst Wrote: thanks for the response, isatrader.

it costs even more for institutional investors per year doesn't it? Around 70-80$ thousand I think i have read somewhere.

Good night

$60,000 a year I believe for institutional investors the last time he mentioned it on the interviews. But that's for full consultation work where they can talk to him regularly on the phone, so he can advise them on their portfolios etc, as well as the Global Trend Alert updates. So $10,000 is the cost of the Global Trend Alert newsletter alone. So is only accessible for private individuals with seriously large amounts of money to invest. For the rest of us, my hope is to bring together serious like minded traders and investors on this site, so we can do the same kind of work covered in the Global Trend Alert through collaboration and ongoing research ourselves.

RE: Market Breadth Extra - JimStudent - 2013-12-12

(2013-12-07, 04:46 PM)isatrader Wrote: Attached is the New Highs / New Lows charts.

Can you educate me about the 52 week new high. From looking at the 52 week high being above it's 50 day moving average, I would say everything is bullish.

"MacNeil Curry, Head of Global Technical Strategy at Bank of America Merrill Lynch," sees the 52-week high differently.

"If you look at new 52-week highs, that has slowly been declining," says Curry. "If you look at the percent of stocks in the New York Stock Exchange trading above their 200-day [moving average], that is starting to decline." While that in and of itself doesn't mean a correction will occur, it increases its probability, says Curry." http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/talking-numbers/bofa-merrill-lynch-prepare-20-correction-next-152010397.html

I appreciate insights on how to interpret the 52-week highs.