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+--- Thread: Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis and Market Breadth - Technical Analysis (/Thread-Stan-Weinstein-s-Stage-Analysis-and-Market-Breadth-Technical-Analysis)
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RE: Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis and Market Breadth - Technical Analysis - pcabc - 2022-04-19
US Sectors:
My breadth charts for the US sectors. Note, there may be a glitch in the % stocks above their MA and Silver and Gold Cross Indices (SCI & GCI).
Consumer staples
Still in Stage 2. Breadth strong.
Communications services
Stage 4. Weinstein Momentum [5] and !% A/D [6] match this, GCI [16] hints that there may be come strengthening, but that is not matched by other indicators.
Consumer discretionary
Stage 4. Breadth supports this.
Energy
Strong Stage 2, which is generally matched by the breadth. The % stocks above their MAs [11, 12 & 13] and SCI and GCI, ignoring a potential glitch, are sloping down however, for the last week or two.
Financials
Looks like the start of Stage 4. Lower highs and lower lops, MA flat.
Healthcare
Stage 3? Recent high [1] is barely higher than the last. Wei9nstein Momentum [5] and SCI & GCI [15] have been falling for a while.
Industrials
Stage 3. PRice and MA almost flat [4]. Weinstein and 1% A/D [5 & 6] have been falling and are crossing zero lines. GCI is falling and has crossed 50% [15].
Materials
Stage 3, but is it looking for a breakout [1]? Weinstein [5] and 1% A/D [6] rising through / above zero line. GI has recently risen [15]. New highs - new lows [3] has been positive for last 6 weeks approx.
Real Estate
Stage 3, forming a head and shoulders top perhaps [1]? Weinstein Momentum [5], 1% A/D [6] and GCI [15] falling.
Technology
Stage 4. Weinstein Momentum [5], 1% A/D [6] and GCI [15] falling and below zero. New highs - new lows below zero [3].
Utilities
Stage 2, but is this a positive movement or a blow out top? Breath fairly neutral, Weinstein Momentum just around zero having been higher previously [5].
RE: Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis and Market Breadth - Technical Analysis - pcabc - 2022-04-23
Everything is looking quite negative right now
In general there has been a decrease in short term market breadth across the board, so even things that were doing well, gold and oil and gas producers, in the short term are a lot weaker. For gold / gold producers, oil & gas hopefully this is a short term pullback. Long term breadth is a lot weaker for S&P500 v Russell 3000. Crypto is also weak but longer term breadth, unlike the S&P500 versus the Russell 3000, is strengthening.
S&P500 v Russell 3000:
Chart replaced with correct one.
Gold v Gold Miners:
WTI Crude Oil versus Gas & Oil Producers:
Bitcoin v Crypto Currencies:
RE: Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis and Market Breadth - Technical Analysis - pcabc - 2022-04-24
Market and Sector overviews
My own 'Weight of Evidence' scores on various time periods. A little arbitrary in what I pick to make each score, but consider them logical choices. The aim of posting this is to give a more general view on where things are now. Breen, score above zero, red below zero (range -100 - +100). Arrows show whether the score is rising or falling compared to a few days ago.
Major indices:
US Sectors:
Commodities & Crypto:
Squinting a bit and just taking in how red or green they are is probably the best thing that can be done with these.
It is evidence that equities, oil and gas produces, precious metals and cryptos are all not very strong at present. OF course, short term sentiments can change in a week.
RE: Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis and Market Breadth - Technical Analysis - pcabc - 2022-04-24
S&P500 v Russell3000, Gold v Miners, Crypto
A bit of an abbreviated post as I have some other stuff to do.
For gold it looks like we are in the first pull back after a break out.
RE: Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis and Market Breadth - Technical Analysis - pcabc - 2022-04-26
These have not got today's data, so these are based on Monday's data, but this sell off is horrible and seems to affect everything to some degree or the other:
S&P500 v Russell 3000:
Note that the % stocks above the 20, 50 and 200 day EMAs is pretty low and the Silver and Gold Cross Indicies (SCI & GCI) are falling.
XLE v Energy Sector:
I'd really like to hope this is just a pullback (as I have some energy positions personally). The % stocks above the 20 & 50 day EMAs have dropped a fair amount [11 & 12] but the SCI & GCI are less dramatic [14 & 15] which might support this thesis.
Gold v Gold Miners:
As above, but the SCI [14] and GCI [15] are definitely rolling over, and the Weinstein and 1% A/D lines, [5 & 6] unfortunately are negative & headed down. Plus New Highs minus New Lows [3] has just poked below zero.
I include silver and platinum mines as a contrast to gold & gold miners, these never got the same strength that gold recently did.
Silver v Silver Miners:
Similar breadth to Gold v Gold Miners but the silver price was never as strong [1].
Platinum v Platinum Miners:
As above but generally weaker.
Bitcoin v Cryptos:
RE: Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis and Market Breadth - Technical Analysis - pcabc - 2022-04-29
Gold v Gold Miners:
This is an interesting one. The gold price in GBP is much stronger than it is in USD owing to £/$ movement recently. The breadth sata is based on a set of miners in a number of exchanges, so priced in a number of different currencies.
The price [1] is in a pullback. Who knows where it will go next? It looks like it may find support here? But it might not.
New Highs minus New Lows [3] has recently dipped below zero, but the cummulative line [4] remains above its 100 day SMA, but has turned down as a result of [3].
The % stocks above the 20, 50 and 200 day EMAs [11, 12 & 13] has dipped dramtically, wohth hints it might be turning up, but only small hints. However, the Silver Cross and Gold Cross Indicies [14 & 15] have both turned down and show no such sign of recovery. They are both below their EMAs which are also slopped down. This is a negative sign in both the medium and long terms. I'd expect that we'd need to see a dramtic upswing in gold price followed by the miners for this to improve.
RE: Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis and Market Breadth - Technical Analysis - pcabc - 2022-04-29
Oil v Oil & Gas Producers
This is based on comparing an WTI Crude ETF versus a selection of oild & gas businesses.
The oil price itself [1] has made a triangle / pennant shape, which it must break out of soon, one way or the other. Momentum would suggest upwards.
No divergences on A/D and A/D volume [2].
New Highs minus New Lows [3] is positive.
There has been a recent +ve cross of Weinstein Momentum [5], 1% A/D [6] did so six weeks ago, but has faltered but not crossed back [6].
The % stocks above their 20 day EMAs have pulled back sharply but may be recovering [11]. The % above their 50 day EMAs also pulled back but stayed above 50% [12]. There was a minor reduction in % above their 200 day EMAs, but nothing dramtic [13].
The Silver Cross Index [14], % stocks with their 20 day EMAs above their 50 day EMAs, is around 80%, having reduced a little, is below its 10 day EMA which is sloping down. So a little weaker but still strong.
The Gold Cross Index [15] is basically flat around 70%.
Breadth has pulled back in the shorter term but longer term it is still strong.
RE: Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis and Market Breadth - Technical Analysis - pcabc - 2022-04-29
S&P500 versus Russell 3000
This is the S&P500 plotted against breths calculated for a rather outdated list of Russell 3000 stocks. Likely makes little difference to the outcome.
The index itself [1] is in a pullback, is this the endo f the pullback or will it make a new low?
The A/D line [2, red] has not diverged, but is headed downward. For some reason A/D Volume [2, yellow] is stronger?
New Highs minus New Lows [3] have mainly been negative since January [3], with the expected impact on the cummulative line and its SMA [4].
Weinstein Momentum [5] and 1% A/D [6] are below their zero lines.
The % stocks above their 20, 50 and 200 day EMAs are all well below 50% but seem to be having a small recent increase following a dip [11, 12 & 13].
The SCI and GCI [14 & 15] are all falling and are below their EMA which are also falling.
Overall this looks rather negative, albeit there might be a minor short term breadth increase, but much smaller than the long term trend.