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+--- Thread: Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis and Market Breadth - Technical Analysis (/Thread-Stan-Weinstein-s-Stage-Analysis-and-Market-Breadth-Technical-Analysis)
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Effective Volume - SPY, QQQ, IWM - isatrader - 2021-11-27
Cumulative Effective Volume has deteriorated since around the 3rd November and Large player EV in the S&P 500 has been hit the most. However, it's only given up around half of the prior advance. So $SPY $QQQ and $IWM are all on negative signals currently but seems orderly so far.
To see the all of the effective volume charts go to: http://www.effectivevolume.com/content.php?156-etf-review
RE: Market Breadth Update - isatrader - 2021-11-27
NYSE and Nasdaq Bullish Percent Indexes both had strong down moves this week of -14% to -16%, with the Nasdaq BP making a third P&F breakdown since the first in February from the upper zone.
Short Term Percentage of Stocks Above Their 20 Day EMAs in the Nasdaq, NYSE, S&P 500 Large Caps and S&P 600 Small Caps
All areas of the US market reached the lower zone on Friday with very strong selling across the board. So we are now in the value zone where risk reward is highest, but it is also the most dangerous area initially until the selling reaches its climax. Bullish signal is on the reversal back through the key 30% level.
US New Highs - News Lows continued to move lower into the end of the week and on the 5 day average chart made a lower low than we've seen compared to the 8 other small corrections over the last few years. So it is now the third lowest level since late 2018.
The Advance Decline Line charts continued lower this week with NYSE giving up the breakout level and dropping back into the range and the Nasdaq making a lower low.
McClellan Oscillators & Summation Indexes have remain negative but Oscillators approaching the lower extremes. So on alert for reversals.
I'm going to go through the market breadth charts I've posted in Part 1 of the Members Weekend Video, which I'm just prepping for now. So don't worry if you don't understand them from the posts, as I will go through them in more detail in the video and explain how to read them.
RE: Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis and Market Breadth - Technical Analysis - pcabc - 2021-11-27
S&P500 versus Russel 3000 breath
Basically all breath measures are sloping down right now. On a zoomed in higher resolution version of this chart New Highs - New Lows is below zero. Advance / Decline and its volume counterpart have not diverged, but everything else is pointing down includeing the Silver and Gold Cross indices. So not a good time to buy now unless you are convinced it is just a pullback.
Pete
RE: Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis and Market Breadth - Technical Analysis - pcabc - 2021-11-27
Crypto breadth
It seems to me that cryptos are in a pullback. The data for the % cryptos above their 50 and 200 day emas, though noisy, seems to be increasing. The Gold and Silver Cross Indices are affected by this noise but they are increasing.
The various McClellan based incidators seem to be strengthening as does the 1% A/D line. The A/D line itself and its volume counterpart however, do seem to have majorly diverged in that they are not making new highs where bitcoin was. Bitcoins price seems to have bounced off of support at its 50 day SMA. So this is loooking hopeful, though perhaps a little early to be more sure?
Addendum:
The McClellan Oscillators are strengthening, but the Summation indices are positive but falling. The non-volume version is very close to its zero line. The Silver Cross Index has dropped but it above 50%. So I was a little over optimistic in my interpretation. We will just have to keep watch.
Stage Analysis Members Weekend Video Part 1 - 27 November 2021 (1hr 3mins) - isatrader - 2021-11-27
RE: Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis and Market Breadth - Technical Analysis - pcabc - 2021-11-28
Gold v Gold Miners
My breadth plot of gold versus gold miner breadth is quite negative at present. 1. The 150 day SMA for the gold price is now rising slightly, the curve had been falling but was slowly levelling out. So this is a good sign. However, the gold price has just dropped below it. However, every other breadth indicator, 2 - 15 is dropping. The Silver Cross Index is essentially flat at around 70%, but it is on its 10 day EMA after topping at around 70%. Based on this, things are not bullish for gold miners.
Percentage of stocks above their 20 day EMAs - isatrader - 2021-11-30
Large / Mega caps with bullish signals moving out of the lower zone today, but the broader market indexes are still deep in the lower zone. So potential Day 1, but need to see broader participation or could easily falter.
Effective Volume - SPY, QQQ, IWM - isatrader - 2021-11-30
The Effective Volume did not match yesterdays rally as you can see on the charts, as large players didn't participate in the SPY and QQQ move, so it is an anomaly, and hence raises questions about validity of the move.
Effective volume charts can be found at http://www.effectivevolume.com/content.php?156-etf-review