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Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis and Market Breadth - Technical Analysis - Printable Version

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$TLT 20+ year Treasuries - isatrader - 2021-09-28

$TLT 20+ year Treasuries ETF Stage Analysis

Currently in Stage 1 and above a rising 30 week MA with the Relative Strength versus the S&P 500 below a still declining zero line (52 week RS MA) although the RS line is getting closer.

   

Stage Analysis Midweek Members Video - 29 September 2021 - isatrader - 2021-09-30

The Stage Analysis Members Midweek Video (1h 17mins) has been posted in the private twitter feed and Premium members forum.

Members get two main videos a week at about an hour each + much more content.

➜ Non-members can find out more via the link on the homepage: stageanalysis.net

   

Market Breadth Update - isatrader - 2021-09-30

Bullish Percent

NYSE & Nasdaq Bullish Percent Indexes remain in a column of Os with a middle field position, so is on Defense i.e the playbook in this area of the field is:
  • Reduced equity exposure
  • Raise cash levels
  • Hold strong RS sectors
  • Sell weak RS sectors
  • Hold leaders (strong RS) stocks
  • Sell laggards (weak RS) stocks etc
       


NYSE and Nasdaq Advance Decline Lines

The cumulative lines for both remain below their 50 day MAs currently. The McClellan Oscillators have pulled back to neutral- zone with a series of higher lows and the McClellan Summation Indexes are below their zero lines.

               


US New Highs - New Lows

Nasdaq new lows has picked up relative to the new highs, but overall combined remains slightly positive currently. Hence I'd give this a neutral rating towards the weight of evidence at the moment.

               


Percentage of Stocks Above 20 Day EMA in the Nasdaq, NYSE, S&P 500 and S&P 600 Small Caps

Higher lows compared to last weeks swing low (20th Sept) with Small Caps showing the most relative strength with 58% above their 20 Day EMA versus 17% last week

               


Effective volume

$QQQ Effective volume from http://effectivevolume.com/content.php?156-etf-review which separates the larger player (institutional) volume from the smaller player (individuals) volume

Subtle divergence with large player volume flat since 20th Sept swing low & smaller player volume still declining

   

Percentage of Stocks Above 20 Day EMA in Nasdaq, NYSE, S&P 500 & S&P 600 Small Caps - isatrader - 2021-09-30

Higher lows compared to last weeks swing low (20th Sept) with Small Caps showing the most relative strength with 58% above their 20 Day EMA versus 17% last week

➜ Members login to the premium board or private twitter to see the full market breadth update, including the Bullish Percent Indexes, Advance Decline Lines, New High New Lows and Effective Volume, and there will be a more detailed run through in the weekend members only video.

               

Cumulative Point & Figure Breakouts - Breakdowns - isatrader - 2021-10-01

Totals for the week:

+440 double top stock breakouts
-706 double bottom stock breakdowns

-266 net stock breakouts - stock breakdowns

The cumulative line continues to hold below the 20 and 50 day MAs, but is still within the near term range.

Status: Neutral / Negative Environment

   

Cumulative Point & Figure Breakouts - Breakdowns MA Momentum Oscillators

               

RE: Percentage of Stocks Above their 50 Day, 150 Day & 200 Day Moving Averages Combined - isatrader - 2021-10-02

US Total % Stocks Above their 50 Day, 150 Day & 200 Day Moving Averages Combined

44.28% (-3.21% 1wk)

Pulled back below its own 50 day MA, and so the status remains as a Difficult Environment, but noting the higher low and proximity to the 50 day MA still. The Point and Figure Chart reversed back to a column of Os on Tuesday with a middle range field position. So moved back to defense once more.

       

20 and 50 day Oscillator

These show the distance that the combined chart is from the 20 day MA and 50 day MA on the chart. Above the zero is positive environment and below is a difficult / negative environment 

       

Nasdaq Total % Stocks Above their 50 Day, 150 Day & 200 Day Moving Averages Combined

Nasdaq Total % Stocks Above their 50 Day, 150 Day & 200 Day Moving Averages Combined

37.32% (-3.67% 1wk)

       

NYSE Total % Stocks Above their 50 Day, 150 Day & 200 Day Moving Averages Combined

NYSE Total % Stocks Above their 50 Day, 150 Day & 200 Day Moving Averages Combined

51.25% (-2.76% 1wk)

       

104 Dow Jones Industry Groups sorted by Relative Strength - isatrader - 2021-10-02

104 Dow Jones Industry Groups sorted by Relative Strength using stockcharts SCTR score

The purpose of the RS tables is to track the short, medium and long term RS changes of the individual groups to find the new leadership earlier than the crowd.

100 is strongest, 0 is weakest

You can find out which stocks are in each industry group by going to https://stockcharts.com/freech... and clicking on the name of the group

       

1 week, 2 week, 4 week and 12 week RS changes

               

Stocks in the Coal group lead once again this week and it remains at the top of the RS table. $ARCH is a good example of using the Forest to the Trees approach with Stage Analysis, where you focus on group strength. See attached chart from May that I highlighted at the time when it was still in Stage 1B and the Coal group was rising strongly up the RS table - led by $BTU. But $ARCH was in late Stage 1B at the time and so I highlighted that based on the group strength that it could move into Stage 2 also. So a good example of the top down approach.

   

US Sectors & Major Index ETFs Relative Strength Table & Thumbnail Charts - isatrader - 2021-10-03

US Sectors & Major Index ETFs Relative Strength Table using the @stockcharts SCTR score

$XLE Energy continued its rise up the RS table and is now back at the top once more, after a strong +5.78% move this week while the majority of other sectors were negative.