(2020-04-29, 02:01 PM)marry123 Wrote: S+P is now breaking above the 61.8% retracement level from its drop. In 2000 and 20008 the stock market made it up to the 61.8% retracement level before tanking. Let's see what happens next but to me it looks like the market saw its bottom in March and we are getting a V bottom as horrendous GDP and unemployment #s mean absolutely nothing to the stock market.

(2020-04-29, 03:25 PM)marry123 Wrote: This is the big weakness with the stage analysis method after a market crash, having to wait and watch stocks go up 50-75%+ waiting for the S+P to get over the 30 MA weekly. My worry now is that it makes it over the 30 MA weekly as more and more get bullish then it takes the next leg lower which would mean the smart money bought in March on extremely oversold indicators and made huge returns while stage analysis folks who follow the Weinstein method religiously sit and continue to wait and then risk buying right before the next leg lower (if there is to be a next leg lower).

(2020-04-29, 03:38 PM)isatrader Wrote:

(2020-04-29, 03:25 PM)marry123 Wrote: This is the big weakness with the stage analysis method after a market crash, having to wait and watch stocks go up 50-75%+ waiting for the S+P to get over the 30 MA weekly. My worry now is that it makes it over the 30 MA weekly as more and more get bullish then it takes the next leg lower which would mean the smart money bought in March on extremely oversold indicators and made huge returns while stage analysis folks who follow the Weinstein method religiously sit and continue to wait and then risk buying right before the next leg lower (if there is to be a next leg lower).

Every method has strengths and weaknesses. Stage Analysis is not about catching bottoms. But if you traded it right then you would have been rotated into others areas of strength as stocks weakened like gold or treasuries while the market was falling. Or you would have captured the far bigger down move by shorting the Stage 4 decline in individual stocks.

I feel like you're focusing on the far smaller up move, as the majority of markets and stocks remain heavily down from where they were in February. So although the bottom fishers have done great in certain stocks. They are probably still sitting on heavy loses to their portfolios as they were likely fully invested in February.

(2020-04-29, 03:25 PM)marry123 Wrote: This is the big weakness with the stage analysis method after a market crash, having to wait and watch stocks go up 50-75%+ waiting for the S+P to get over the 30 MA weekly. My worry now is that it makes it over the 30 MA weekly as more and more get bullish then it takes the next leg lower which would mean the smart money bought in March on extremely oversold indicators and made huge returns while stage analysis folks who follow the Weinstein method religiously sit and continue to wait and then risk buying right before the next leg lower (if there is to be a next leg lower).

(2020-04-29, 03:41 PM)marry123 Wrote: All  valid points you make. Yes, I have been focussing on the up move in the NASAQ and S+P watching many stocks make very large moves higher; however,  if we do get over the 30 MA on S+P and DOW then maybe that will be the signal that this is indeed a new bull market starting with much higher highs to come and that this was not just a strong bear market bounce.

(2020-04-29, 03:48 PM)isatrader Wrote:

(2020-04-29, 03:41 PM)marry123 Wrote: All  valid points you make. Yes, I have been focussing on the up move in the NASAQ and S+P watching many stocks make very large moves higher; however,  if we do get over the 30 MA on S+P and DOW then maybe that will be the signal that this is indeed a new bull market starting with much higher highs to come and that this was not just a strong bear market bounce.

That may be the case, but a V recovery straight to new highs (in the overall market) is still very low odds imo (except the Nasdaq 100), as the high volatility we have, will likely continue throughout the year, which could mean multiple sharp declines still as a Stage 1 base forms, which will give many opportunities to get into strong leading stocks already in early Stage 2.