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RE: Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis and Market Breadth - Technical Analysis - pcabc - 2020-04-02
Based on Russell 1000 constituents.
The ranking I use to select these is based onthe slope of the 50 and 150 day MAs. But recent events are so rapid the 150 day MA slope is barely reacting. I'll try a different scan later.
RE: Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis and Market Breadth - Technical Analysis - pcabc - 2020-04-02
Another batch with strong relative strength
RE: Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis and Market Breadth - Technical Analysis - isatrader - 2020-04-02
(2020-04-02, 09:26 PM)pcabc Wrote: Another batch with strong relative strength
So what themes are you seeing from all of these charts? As I'm trying to get to the potential themes that people are seeing emerging that I might not have, as it's easy to run scans. But I want people to go into more depth and find the hot sectors that might be the next leaders when the Stage 4 decline is over.
For example in October/November 2008 the precious metals bottomed around 4 months before the market did, and then metals miners had some huge moves, while the market was still declining in Stage 4. So as history likes to repeat itself, one area I'm looking at currently is the precious metals miners, as they have been showing some very strong relative strength and the GDX etf that covers the larger gold / precious metals miners has rebounded over 50% from its lows in just 3 weeks, and so has the potential to bottom earlier than stocks which haven't shown anywhere near that kind of strength.
So that is what mean by a potential theme. What I want to know is what people are seeing, and the reasoning behind it. What areas are standing out ignoring the obvious pharmaceuticals and health care stocks.
RE: Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis and Market Breadth - Technical Analysis - pcabc - 2020-04-03
(2020-04-02, 09:41 PM)isatrader Wrote:(2020-04-02, 09:26 PM)pcabc Wrote: Another batch with strong relative strength
So what themes are you seeing from all of these charts? As I'm trying to get to the potential themes that people are seeing emerging that I might not have, as it's easy to run scans. But I want people to go into more depth and find the hot sectors that might be the next leaders when the Stage 4 decline is over.
For example in October/November 2008 the precious metals bottomed around 4 months before the market did, and then metals miners had some huge moves, while the market was still declining in Stage 4. So as history likes to repeat itself, one area I'm looking at currently is the precious metals miners, as they have been showing some very strong relative strength and the GDX etf that covers the larger gold / precious metals miners has rebounded over 50% from its lows in just 3 weeks, and so has the potential to bottom earlier than stocks which haven't shown anywhere near that kind of strength.
So that is what mean by a potential theme. What I want to know is what people are seeing, and the reasoning behind it. What areas are standing out ignoring the obvious pharmaceuticals and health care stocks.
Isa, apologies. I get rather carried away. If that is not obvious. If it helps they perhaps could be moved or removed if it confuses the issue. Anyway, moving on...
The most obvious theme is major biotechs pharmaceuticals and biotechnology. That barely need stating, I would think. However, I calculate my own breadth data, and I look at this area. But desipte stunning moves I see not hint in the breadth for either. This is most odd. Similar in healthcare.
I make no claim that my calculations are perfect, but they should give some approximation. I wonder if I am drilling down into the wrong area? I will investigate.
The breadth for gold miners is improving. A/D is still at lows. A/D volume is flattish after an increase. I wonder if I have an upward bias in my a/d volume calculations, but I cannot track one down. The main improvements are that new highs minus new lows are around zero having increased from the negative zone and the percentages of stocks above the 50 and 200 day EMAs are about to leave the oversold area perhaps.
Other than this it looks pretty bleak for all the US sectors.
So I need to see if I have anomalies, perhaps recalculate my numbers and see if I can drill into very specific areas.
RE: Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis and Market Breadth - Technical Analysis - pcabc - 2020-04-04
Sectors that are showing up, based on momentum
I screen using a database of my own. I tag stocks, sometimes manually and sometimes with sector constituent information I've managed to download when I find a usable source. I've just run a screen based on momentum, the slope of a moving average and recorded the number of times a sector / tag has been hit. This produces the table below. The first number is the number of stocks that passed through the filtering (upward slope etc) and the percentage, the percentage this number is compared to the sector (tag) size. This explains why pharmaceuticals and biotechs are not showing up in my breadth charts. Though there are a number of good movers the sectors are large so the relative percentage is low. I need to go a deeper dig into specifics, but this might be a guide.
Code:
Tag (sector etc) , No., % of tags
Food Chains , 4, 36 %
Consumer goods , 9, 27 %
Consumer Staples , 9, 27 %
Packaged Foods , 5, 15 %
Investment Managers , 3, 14 %
NASDAQ100 , 8, 9 %
Information Technology , 4, 8 %
Biotechnology: Biological Produc, 6, 7 %
Healthcare , 5, 7 %
Consumer Non-Durables , 10, 5 %
S&P500 , 22, 5 %
Business Services , 3, 4 %
Computer Software: Prepackaged S, 5, 4 %
SP100 , 4, 4 %
Telecommunications Equipment , 4, 4 %
Russell_1000 , 33, 4 %
Medical/Dental Instruments , 3, 3 %
Miscellaneous , 3, 3 %
Russell 3000 , 69, 3 %
Consumer Discretionary , 6, 2 %
Health Care , 16, 2 %
russell2000 , 36, 2 %
Consumer Services , 14, 2 %
Technology , 11, 2 %
Real Estate Investment Trusts , 4, 2 %
Utilities , 4, 2 %
Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology , 10, 2 %
Major Pharmaceuticals , 4, 1 %
Finance , 5, 1 %RE: Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis and Market Breadth - Technical Analysis - grbaNT - 2020-04-05
Attached are the updated charts of the RABWDB Indicator, Individual Phases, SP500 RABWDB, SP400 RABWDB and SP600 RABWDB.
To learn more about the indicator go to https://dg-swingtrading.blogspot.com/search/label/RABWDB
RE: Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis and Market Breadth - Technical Analysis - grbaNT - 2020-04-05
Attached are the updated charts of the US Stock Market Survey Indicator, Individual Stages, SP500 Survey, SP400 Survey and SP600 Survey.
If you want to read my commentary, please go to https://dg-swingtrading.blogspot.com/search/label/The%20Survey
RE: Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis and Market Breadth - Technical Analysis - pcabc - 2020-04-05
(2020-04-05, 09:50 AM)grbaNT Wrote: Attached are the updated charts of the US Stock Market Survey Indicator, Individual Stages, SP500 Survey, SP400 Survey and SP600 Survey.
If you want to read my commentary, please go to https://dg-swingtrading.blogspot.com/search/label/The%20Survey
Thanks for this, as always, appreciated.
Can you clarify a little?
Volatility dropped somewhat last week and if that continues in the coming weeks, maybe we will see individual stocks creating patterns and, generally, we can begin to trade on technicals after a lengthy period where market environment was good only for day trades.
Regarding 'only good for day trades', do you mean the lengthy period up and including February or the March decline?
Anyway, of volatility becomes more sensible we will better know where we are.