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RE: Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis and Market Breadth - Technical Analysis - pcabc - 2020-02-27

Market breadth

Sadly the market breadth feed at http://unicorn.us.com/advdec/ has lost its feeds and is no longer updating.  I was using this for my NYSE, NASDAQ and AMEX breadth data.  I was investigating why my advance / decline line had flatlined despite the last week.    My workaround is that I have been calculating my own breadth data for some areas (UK, US and some UK sectors).  So I will extend that to a more general US calculation.  However, I would not consider my data as robust as it will not match the exchange data, I am not tracking the same constituents for example, not updating them automatically.

Unfortunately this means that I loose some observational data.  Does the death cross of the NYSE advance decline line with two of its MA's in 1987 apply to my data.  It would take quite an effort to calculate my data back to then, if I event can - which is doubtful.  I also had made an observation that the AMEX advance decline line is very pessamistic, i.e. it is invariably falling, so it it is rising that is a very good sign.

I'll have to see how my US calcs go.

RE: Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis and Market Breadth - Technical Analysis - BarnabeBear - 2020-02-27

You can fall back on the WSJ data published every day

RE: Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis and Market Breadth - Technical Analysis - BarnabeBear - 2020-02-27

https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks?mod=md_home_overview_stk_main

RE: Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis and Market Breadth - Technical Analysis - pcabc - 2020-02-29

Breadth

US:
Owing to the loss of an advance / decline data feed I now calculate my own advance decline data for the US, as I have already done for other areas.  THe data it likely lower quality, but hopefully good enough.
           

UK:
       

Europe:
   

Oil and Gold & Silver:
           

RE: Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis and Market Breadth - Technical Analysis - pcabc - 2020-02-29

(2020-02-29, 03:48 PM)pcabc Wrote: Breadth
On the whole the last 6 months gains have been erased.  The drop, both in the prices and breadth indications have been so rapid that the longer MAs have barely been affected. You might argue that the indices are still in stage 2, as we have not had a serious pullback in 6 months and in general, if the low goes no lower then the previous low is not breached, even if the 150 day MA is.  Does this mean will will get a rapid climb back up, goe sideways, or pullup into a bull trap?

US Stock Market Breadth – Quickest 10% Decline From an All-Time High in History - isatrader - 2020-02-29

I've added a jumbo blog post on the front of the site about the weeks price action and the key market breadth charts. To view it go to:

https://www.stageanalysis.net/blog/20755/us-stock-market-breadth-quickest-10-decline-from-an-all-time-high-in-history

RE: US Stock Market Breadth – Quickest 10% Decline From an All-Time High in History - pcabc - 2020-03-01

(2020-02-29, 08:03 PM)isatrader Wrote: I've added a jumbo blog post on the front of the site about the weeks price action and the key market breadth charts. To view it go to:

https://www.stageanalysis.net/blog/20755/us-stock-market-breadth-quickest-10-decline-from-an-all-time-high-in-history

Would those views apply to investor positions as much as trader positions?    The reason I ask is there does not seem to be much in the way of a divergence in the advance / decline line for example.  THe % stocks abovre the 50 day MA was > 70% for a while but the % above the 200 day MA has only been grazing it and it does seem to vary depending on which dataset you pick.  I've not seen the breakdown in the momentum index that you have seen, and as I post elsewhere, I have been having data issues of late which makes apples to apples comparisons difficult.

Back to the % stocks above the 50 and 200 day MAs (I don't have 150 day data).  From my data it has been notable that they have been declining since the end of January but only crossed below 50% in the past week, right at the start of the meltdown.

RE: US Stock Market Breadth – Quickest 10% Decline From an All-Time High in History - isatrader - 2020-03-01

(2020-03-01, 12:28 PM)pcabc Wrote: Would those views apply to investor positions as much as trader positions?    The reason I ask is there does not seem to be much in the way of a divergence in the advance / decline line for example.  THe % stocks abovre the 50 day MA was > 70% for a while but the % above the 200 day MA has only been grazing it and it does seem to vary depending on which dataset you pick.  I've not seen the breakdown in the momentum index that you have seen, and as I post elsewhere, I have been having data issues of late which makes apples to apples comparisons difficult.

Back to the % stocks above the 50 and 200 day MAs (I don't have 150 day data).  From my data it has been notable that they have been declining since the end of January but only crossed below 50% in the past week, right at the start of the meltdown.

The NYSE advance decline line was only showing some small divergences via the different Momentum indexes and the McClellan Oscillator and summation index. But the other Nasdaq AD Line and the NYSE AD Volume both had divergences and weren't making new highs with the price action.

With the Percentage of Stocks above the 50, 150 and 200 day MAs, they all gave bear alert signals in the middle of January (see investorsintelligence.com - Definitions of current Market Breadth Status) when they moved strongly back below 70% while the stocks were making new highs still. You are right though that the 150 day and 200 day only gave full bear confirmed signals on the breakdown this week. But the short term 50 day MA gave a Bear Confirmed signal on the 27th January.

So this and other changes is why I had been highlighting in my videos for the last month that we needed to protect our account and have a more defensive strategy. As the market was very extended after 5 months of running strongly higher, and the breadth was showing some weakness appearing, which is why I had downgraded the Weight of Evidence to Neutral + status before this weeks fall. Which means taking a more defensive strategy in my playbook. But that is obviously more difficult for an investor than a trader.