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Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis and Market Breadth - Technical Analysis - Printable Version

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Major Stock Indexes Update - isatrader - 2013-06-01

Attached is the updated major equity index charts and relative performance table. I've switched the Nasdaq 100 with the Nasdaq Composite as the yahoo data has been having problems for a while now on the Nasdaq 100. So as Weinstein looks at the Nasdaq Composite anyway, I think it's ok to change and has less weighting to Apple.

Note the VIX's (Volatility Index) climb up the relative performance table to 5th just under the zero line from 12th place last week.

[Image: attachment.php?aid=1448]

US Stock Indexes

               

European Stock Indexes

       


Commodities Update and the Dollar Index - isatrader - 2013-06-01

Attached is the updated major commodities charts, Gold (GC), Copper (HG), West Texas Intermediate Crude (CL) and the Dollar Index (DX)


US 10 & 30 Year Treasuries - isatrader - 2013-06-01

Attached is the updated US 10 & 30 Year Treasuries charts, which have made a Stage 4 continuation move below the March swing low on the heaviest weekly volume I can see on my chart this week. It was a contract rollover week, and so the adjusted charts don't show the breakdown that the unadjusted charts that I show do.

The cumulative volume has broken down strongly though on both the 10 & 30 Year Treasuries charts and relative performance versus the S&P 500 continues to be weak.

The Treasuries did previously move into Stage 1A briefly in April, but have had a strong sell off during May on increasing volume.

Attached is the updated charts and I've also attached the 10 and 30 year yield charts to give a different perspective as you can see the secondary Stage 2 breakouts on both yield charts.

       

       


UK FTSE 350 Stocks Relative Performance - isatrader - 2013-06-01

Below is the updated weekly FTSE 350 stocks relative performance table

Top 50 FTSE 350 Stocks by Overall RS Score

   

Also attached below is the biggest moving FTSE 350 stocks since last week by their Mansfield Relative Performance figures. Brewin Dolphin (BRW.L) was this weeks strongest stock and Thomas Cook Group (TCG.L) was the weakest.

FTSE 350 Gainers

       

FTSE 350 Fallers

       


RE: Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis - Discussion Thread - Tryst - 2013-06-01

(2013-05-30, 08:17 PM)bluemosaic Wrote:
(2013-05-30, 07:58 PM)isatrader Wrote: I've been expanding my datasets on my chart software, and have added the FTSE AIM UK Top 50 which might be of interest to some of the UK traders on here. The relative performance table is in order of strength compared to the S&P 500 as usual. So for example Iofina (IOF.L) is the strongest stock and Quindell Portfolio (QPP.L) is the weakest.

Definitely useful and of interest. Thanks

I agree with bluemosaic, this list will definitely be useful.

I notice AMER in near the bottom. Without looking at the chart, but from purely watching their price in my portfolio for the last 2 years, they went from a stage 1 back around when they was 8-9p into a stage 2 rising to around 50-55p which seemed to be a balance area where they bobbed back and forth which may have been the stage 3 and now they are breaking down lower where they are now around 45p, which could be the start of a stage 4.

Onto something else, does anyone know if the ETFs are very tightly geared to the sectors they relate to? For example, in the US the Real Estate ETF which is called, IYR, if you look at the weekly chart of that, it has had a sharp drop. Will the Real Estate sector in the US follow this, if so, will this correction then apply to the Real Estate sector in the UK markets? I have to keep a close eye on my Taylor Wimpey investment Smile

Hi,

sorry if the link to this has already been posted over at T2W. I am only on page 20 there currently so not sure it has already been posted or not, but has anyone read the book 'Heretics of Finance - conversations with leading practitioners of technical analysis'?

There seems to be a section in there on Stan Weinstein which is quite useful...

http://books.google.co.uk/books?id=c6L0cJyPz40C&pg=PA105&lpg=PA105&dq=the+heretics+of+finance+stan+weinstein&source=bl&ots=p3n8jOs75r&sig=QitFKav4xNA0_Xd8YCbpAZbn1aI&hl=en&sa=X&ei=mUSmUdDWLqOR0AWG9YGoCA&ved=0CC8Q6AEwAA#v=onepage&q=the%20heretics%20of%20finance%20stan%20weinstein&f=false

I have been trying to find a free copy online but no joy. The Google preview missing out some pages. Does anyone have a digital copy of this?

no sure what happened there, I did want two separate posts but my last post seems to have been attached to the end of my previous post :-s


RE: Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis - Discussion Thread - isatrader - 2013-06-02

(2013-06-01, 07:27 PM)Tryst Wrote: Onto something else, does anyone know if the ETFs are very tightly geared to the sectors they relate to? For example, in the US the Real Estate ETF which is called, IYR, if you look at the weekly chart of that, it has had a sharp drop. Will the Real Estate sector in the US follow this, if so, will this correction then apply to the Real Estate sector in the UK markets? I have to keep a close eye on my Taylor Wimpey investment Smile

I've attached the weekly chart of the Dow Jones US Real Estate Investment Trusts Index ($DJUSRI) which as you can see from the legend has correlation of 1 with the iShares IYR ETF. Also from looking at the iShares fact sheet for the IYR it says it aims to track the Dow Jones U.S. Real Estate Index. So the IYR is basically identical to the Real Estate Index, but with some tracking error that you get in all ETFs that aim to replicate an index.

   

To your question of whether this will effect the corresponding UK Real Estate Investment Trusts sector - it looks as if it already has to a certain extent imo. See attached NMX8670 below:

   

However, Taylor Wimpey (TW.L) isn't in either of the Real Estate sectors - NMX8630 and NMX8670. It is in fact in the Household Goods and Home Construction Sector (NMX3720) - details of which can be found here: http://www.londonstockexchange.com/exchange/prices-and-markets/stocks/indices/constituents-indices.html?index=NMX&industrySector=3720&page=1

   

I'm not qualified to give you direct advice on an open position, as I'm still learning myself. But would recommend that you re-read Chapter 6 in the book - When to Sell on page 164 onwards, as it gives some clear guidance on the methods exit strategies. And there's also a a tip in the the heretics of finance interview you found on page 108 (good find by the way, I hadn't seen that one before). Attached below is the Talyor Wimpey chart and the Household Goods and Home Construction Sector (NMX3720) chart.


RE: Market Breadth Update - Strohem - 2013-06-02

isatrader -

You've been busy over the past few months! Nice work. Sorry to have not replied earlier. Thanks for the heads-up.

Strohem


RE: Market Breadth Update - isatrader - 2013-06-02

(2013-06-02, 12:32 AM)Strohem Wrote: isatrader -

You've been busy over the past few months! Nice work. Sorry to have not replied earlier. Thanks for the heads-up.

Strohem

Thanks Strohem, and welcome to the site. It is really good to see someone with your knowledge of market breadth measures on here. I really liked your old thread on the stockrants forum (which members that are interested can find through this link: NYA50R and other Breadth Indicators)

And I hope you'll be able to participate in this thread when you have the time.

Cheers