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+--- Thread: Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis and Market Breadth - Technical Analysis (/Thread-Stan-Weinstein-s-Stage-Analysis-and-Market-Breadth-Technical-Analysis)
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RE: Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis - Discussion Thread - Lplate - 2013-05-04
New interview with Stan 16 minutes in, and lasts 20 minutes. http://www.financialsense.com/financial-sense-newshour/big-picture/2013/05/04/stan-weinstein/still-bullish-stocks
As per isatrader's suggestion, he mentions Expedia as breakdown.
Glamour stocks (sometimes referred to as Pretty Girls), for anyone wondering, I think are the widely-discussed trendy stocks, mainly in the tech/internet/media and food/clothing/leisure sectors. (For UK think Notting Hill.) Obviously, if tech sector has lagged, and Apple has fallen hard, then this partly explains lag in such stocks as a group,
Economic Indicators - isatrader - 2013-05-04
I thought it would be interesting to add some Economic Indicators to the market breadth set that I look at on here as they give an alternate insight into the market moves. They are monthly datasets, and tend to lag, but look to have a good correlation especially on the long term trends. So attached is the 20 year US Non-Farm Payrolls chart, the 13 year S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index chart and the 20 year US Unemployment Rate chart. The Case-Shiller Home Price Index is just moving into Stage 2A for the first time since it topped out in 2006 which is a positive for housing in the US. Home builder stocks have obviously been anticipating this and have had huge moves over the last year or so, and so it will be interesting to see if the improving fundamental data in housing will help continue their Stage 2 runs.
RE: Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis - Discussion Thread - isatrader - 2013-05-04
(2013-05-04, 08:40 AM)Lplate Wrote: New interview with Stan 16 minutes in, and lasts 20 minutes. http://www.financialsense.com/financial-sense-newshour/big-picture/2013/05/04/stan-weinstein/still-bullish-stocks
As per isatrader's suggestion, he mentions Expedia as breakdown.
Glamour stocks (sometimes referred to as Pretty Girls), for anyone wondering, I think are the widely-discussed trendy stocks, mainly in the tech/internet/media and food/clothing/leisure sectors. (For UK think Notting Hill.) Obviously, if tech sector has lagged, and Apple has fallen hard, then this partly explains lag in such stocks as a group,
Good to see him finally do another interview, although it was much less detailed than the previous ones I thought with only a few stocks mentioned. General themes I took from it were that he was long term bullish now and to focus on sector rotation and that he still considers it a stock pickers market. I think he conveniently forgot that he did the last interview following the November bottom and at the time only considered it a short term bottom and was advising covering extended shorts and to look to do further shorting when it next rolled over as he was calling it as early Stage 4. Obviously, we don't get the weekly newsletter and so don't know exactly when that view changed, although I imagine it was when the four main markets recovered strongly back above their 200 day MAs. But, I think I would have got more out of the interview if he'd talked about getting it wrong last time and how he dealt with it with his institutional clients once his view changed back to long term bullish and the reasons why he dropped the bearish view. Maybe I'll email him and ask and see if he replies.
S&P 500 Cumulative P&F Breakouts - Breakdowns - isatrader - 2013-05-04
As I noted earlier in the week on the S&P 500 Daily breakouts and breakdowns thread, the S&P 500 Cumulative P&F Breakouts - Breakdowns chart broke out this week back above it's previous high and finished the week at new highs once more. There was a total of 51 breakouts and 7 breakdowns this week in the S&P 500. Attached is the updated charts.
Advance Decline Breadth Charts - isatrader - 2013-05-04
Attached is the updated Advance Decline Breadth Charts, including the cumulative AD line, momentum index, cumulative AD volume line, 10 Day AD oscillator, NYSE Volume Advancing / Volume Declining Ratio and the McClellan Oscillator and Summation Index
New Highs New Lows $NYHL - isatrader - 2013-05-04
Attached is the New Highs / New Lows charts.
Volatility Breadth Charts - isatrader - 2013-05-04
Attached is the updated volatility breadth charts
Moving Average Breadth Charts Update - isatrader - 2013-05-05
Attached is the NYSE long, medium and short term moving average breadth charts and the NYSE Bullish Percent Index.
The medium and longer term Bear Alerts from my last update two weeks ago have been averted with reversals on the NYSE Percentage of Stocks above their 200 day Moving Averages and the NYSE Percentage of Stocks above their 150 day Moving Averages charts to a column of Xs and hence they regain Bull Confirmed status once more near the upper end of their ranges. Also, you'll note that the time period above the key 70% level has now been over 4 months, which as you can see on the line chart is not out of the ordinary, as the 2010 move above 70% lasted for around 7 months until it broke down in May 2011. And so there's certainly recent precedent for it to continue for longer, but be aware that we are in the upper end of the scale and that we are moving towards right side of the bell curve.
The short term NYSE Percentage of Stocks above their 50 day Moving Averages chart has also regained the 70% level, with a new continuation breakout on Friday and is also now back on Bull Confirmed status with a little bit of potential upside capacity after being refreshed down to the 42% level. So that means that a lot of stocks have had a pullback below their 50 day moving averages and have now recovered back above it.