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Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis and Market Breadth - Technical Analysis - Printable Version

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US 10 & 30 Year Treasuries Stage Analysis - isatrader - 2013-04-07

The last Stage Analysis of US Treasuries was back on 10th March in post#9 here: http://stageanalysis.net/forum/showthread.php?tid=1&pid=198#pid198 when I highlighted that the 10 & 30 Year US Treasuries had made their first continuation moves lower following their Stage 4 breakdowns early in the year. That continuation breakdown failed and marked the swing low for US Treasuries this year, which have since rebounded strongly for the last four weeks, and on Friday broke back above the most recent swing highs and the 30 week MA to move back into Stage 1A.

I noted in post#23 that there was a divergence forming in the cumulative volume at the bottom of the charts, and since then cumulative volume has continued to recover and crossed above it's own MA on the weekly chart this week. Relative performance versus the S&P 500 is also improving again, and so US Treasuries are back in neutral territory in the early part of Stage 1 after a relatively short Stage 4 phase of only three months.

The fact that Treasuries have broken above their recent swing highs is interesting to me, as they have a strong inverse relationship with equities, which haven't broken down yet below their February swing lows yet. And so the question is, are Treasuries acting as a leading indicator of weakness to come in the equity market? Definitely, something to keep an eye on imo.

Major Stock Indexes Update - isatrader - 2013-04-07

Attached is the updated major equity index charts and relative performance table

[Image: attachment.php?aid=775]

US Stock Indexes

               

European Stock Indexes

       

Commodities Update and the Dollar Index - isatrader - 2013-04-07

Attached is the updated major commodities charts, Gold (GC), Copper (HG), West Texas Intermediate Crude (CL) and the Dollar Index (DX).

US Industry Sectors - isatrader - 2013-04-07

Attached are the updated US Industry Sector Charts and relative performance table.

The defensive sectors are taking the lead, with Health Care, Consumer Staples and Utilities all outperforming the S&P 500 on the Mansfield 200 day Relative Strength reading. Health Care (XLV) moves into the top spot this week, while Technology (XLK) continues to be the weakest sector.

[Image: attachment.php?aid=782]

S&P 500 Cumulative P&F Breakouts - Breakdowns - isatrader - 2013-04-09

I spent some time today adding historical data points to the S&P 500 Cumulative P&F Breakouts - Breakdowns chart, as it previously only went back to July 2012. So I've now added the previous 6 months to the beginning of 2012, so it has 13 months of data now, as I especially wanted to see how it behaved during the April period last year due to the similarities in the markets behavior. Attached is the extended charts.

US Industry Sectors Breadth - isatrader - 2013-04-13

Last weeks very negative week saw a modest recovery this week with all the sectors closing higher for the week. However, only three managed to get back above their 10 week WMA to move back onto the buy side, and so the signals remain slightly weighted to the bearish side with five sectors on a sell and four sectors on a buy.

The biggest mover of the week was Consumer Discretionary up 3.74% to 71.77% of stocks in that sector above their 150 day MA. Overall Financials (79.47%) remains the strongest sector and Basic Materials (41.58%) the weakest.

Below is the data table for the Percent of Stocks Above 150 Day Moving Average in each sector which I've ordered by relative strength, with the highest to the lowest percentage in each sector. Also attached is the visual diagram of the 9 sectors and the overall NYSE Percentage of Stocks above their 150 day Moving Averages, plus the 1% P&F chart and line chart of the nine sectors.

[Image: attachment.php?aid=813]

Moving Average Breadth Charts - isatrader - 2013-04-14

Attached is the NYSE long, medium and short term moving average breadth charts and the NYSE Bullish Percent Index.

The long and medium term charts didn't have much movement, but the short term charts all reversed back to a column of Xs, and the three quicker measures all made double top buy signals and so move back to Bull Confirmed status near the tops of their ranges again. So it's a very mixed picture currently with some short term positives, but the short term NYSE Percentage of stocks above their 50 Day MA chart failed to get back above it's own 50 day MA, which is trending lower and it's relative performance is still below it's 200 day MA. So that's the chart I'm watching the most closely at the moment, as it's still leaning towards a down move soon imo, unless it can breakout again, which would reverse the negative signs it has.

[Image: attachment.php?aid=818]

[Image: attachment.php?aid=819]

S&P 500 Cumulative P&F Breakouts - Breakdowns - isatrader - 2013-04-14

The S&P 500 Cumulative P&F Breakouts - Breakdowns made new highs once more this week after coming close to rolling over again last week. There was a total of 42 breakouts and 6 breakdowns, so the bulls haven't given up just yet, but the MA's are starting to tighten up and the distance above the 20 day MA oscillator is putting in lower highs, so the momentum is slowing, but the bulls remain in control currently.