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+--- Thread: Stage Analysis Beginners Questions (/Thread-Stage-Analysis-Beginners-Questions)
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RE: Beginners Questions - badcharts - 2018-07-31
Hi all,
Lookong for guidance as to what os the new GM?
Stan says.. "as gm goes..." and uses it as an indicator.
Apple? IBM? Still gm?
I guess the ticker would also have to be old, if we want to back test it.
Regards,
Patrick
RE: Beginners Questions - StageAnalysis - 2018-07-31
(2018-07-31, 05:00 PM)badcharts Wrote: Looking for guidance as to what os the new GM?
Stan says.. "as gm goes..." and uses it as an indicator.
Apple? Â IBM? Still gm?
Assuming that GM was the biggest stock at the time of the book being written in the 80s, I'd say these days it would be Apple as it has the biggest weighting of the S&P 500 stocks, and makes up almost 4% of it's moves.
RE: Beginners Questions - arkyuan - 2018-08-02
hi Guys,
FUND.V showed up in recent breakout list. Today it crashed by 21%, I think it's a classic pump & dump ? My question is what are the indicators to identify pump & dump? or false stage 2 continuation like this one.
thanks,
ark,
RE: Beginners Questions - isatrader - 2018-08-02
(2018-08-02, 02:44 AM)arkyuan Wrote: hi Guys,
  FUND.V showed up in recent breakout list. Today it crashed by 21%, I think it's a classic pump & dump ? My question is what are the indicators to identify pump & dump? or false stage 2 continuation like this one.
thanks,
ark,
Slightly off the question, but just incase anyone is unclear in what the watchlist thread is. As FUND.V didn't appear in a breakout list, but was highlighted in the watchlist thread. So by being highlighted in the watchlist thread, it means a stock may have already broken out with some of the things that we look for in the method, or be approaching a breakout level etc. And so the idea is to then watch the stocks behaviour to see if it exhibits the things that we look for in the method once it makes a pullback or a breakout etc. Depending on where it is in it's Stage so that we can try to identify the next low risk entry point once it forms.
In this stocks case it's Stage 2 breakout was back in mid June around the 0.82 level. And so even after this heavy move today it's still 52% above that breakout level, but, the big but, would be that todays initial move was large and on heavy volume for the stock. So this is counter to what we look for in the method, as we look for an orderly pullback on contracting volume. So hence, it would now come off the watchlist, as it's behaviour is not in line with that.
So whether it's a pump or dump or something else doesn't matter, as if you follow the method properly it will keep you out of stocks that aren't behaving in the correct way.
RE: Beginners Questions - arkyuan - 2018-08-02
(2018-08-02, 08:19 AM)isatrader Wrote:(2018-08-02, 02:44 AM)arkyuan Wrote: hi Guys,
  FUND.V showed up in recent breakout list. Today it crashed by 21%, I think it's a classic pump & dump ? My question is what are the indicators to identify pump & dump? or false stage 2 continuation like this one.
thanks,
ark,
Slightly off the question, but just incase anyone is unclear in what the watchlist thread is. As FUND.V didn't appear in a breakout list, but was highlighted in the watchlist thread. So by being highlighted in the watchlist thread, it means a stock may have already broken out with some of the things that we look for in the method, or be approaching a breakout level etc. And so the idea is to then watch the stocks behaviour to see if it exhibits the things that we look for in the method once it makes a pullback or a breakout etc. Depending on where it is in it's Stage so that we can try to identify the next low risk entry point once it forms.
In this stocks case it's Stage 2 breakout was back in mid June around the 0.82 level. And so even after this heavy move today it's still 52% above that breakout level, but, the big but, would be that todays initial move was large and on heavy volume for the stock. So this is counter to what we look for in the method, as we look for an orderly pullback on contracting volume. So hence, it would now come off the watchlist, as it's behaviour is not in line with that.
So whether it's a pump or dump or something else doesn't matter, as if you follow the method properly it will keep you out of stocks that aren't behaving in the correct way.
You are right.Â
it looks like a good indicator for short selling? (no pullback on contracting volume). But this wasn't an indicator for shorting selling in stan's book.
RE: Beginners Questions - StageAnalysis - 2018-08-02
(2018-08-02, 03:46 PM)arkyuan Wrote: You are right.Â
it looks like a good indicator for short selling? (no pullback on contracting volume). But this wasn't an indicator for shorting selling in stan's book.
Not an indicator for short selling imo. Just an indicator that a stock no longer meets the methods high standards and hence should be avoided, as opportunities costs are key.
RE: Beginners Questions - badcharts - 2018-08-07
Hi all!
I'm currently trying to expand/apply Stan Weinstein's stage analysis to Forex! Some notable differences with zero sum charts and regular upwards skewed stocks.
1- volume as confirmation. not quite identifiable in the 2x prev 4-5 weeks manner. (some crescedo vol. observed on breakdowns)
2- more sinusoïdale looking charts
3- not sure the element of fear is as present (for breakdowns) or greed (for breakouts)
4- seems more dirven by strong underlyning conditions than human emotion... (overnight interest rates, outlook, etc)...
Here is my playlist..Â
https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLgHMxleXwSBXTkQj6I4QpnnCKUhD85IkE
Let me know if you guys had some experiences with that!
Regards,
Patrick
RE: Beginners Questions - arkyuan - 2018-08-09
(2018-08-02, 08:19 AM)isatrader Wrote:(2018-08-02, 02:44 AM)arkyuan Wrote: hi Guys,
  FUND.V showed up in recent breakout list. Today it crashed by 21%, I think it's a classic pump & dump ? My question is what are the indicators to identify pump & dump? or false stage 2 continuation like this one.
thanks,
ark,
Slightly off the question, but just incase anyone is unclear in what the watchlist thread is. As FUND.V didn't appear in a breakout list, but was highlighted in the watchlist thread. So by being highlighted in the watchlist thread, it means a stock may have already broken out with some of the things that we look for in the method, or be approaching a breakout level etc. And so the idea is to then watch the stocks behaviour to see if it exhibits the things that we look for in the method once it makes a pullback or a breakout etc. Depending on where it is in it's Stage so that we can try to identify the next low risk entry point once it forms.
In this stocks case it's Stage 2 breakout was back in mid June around the 0.82 level. And so even after this heavy move today it's still 52% above that breakout level, but, the big but, would be that todays initial move was large and on heavy volume for the stock. So this is counter to what we look for in the method, as we look for an orderly pullback on contracting volume. So hence, it would now come off the watchlist, as it's behaviour is not in line with that.
So whether it's a pump or dump or something else doesn't matter, as if you follow the method properly it will keep you out of stocks that aren't behaving in the correct way.
Hi Isatrader,
  Just want to clarify with you, the watchlist thread was created base on the daily P&F breakouts/breakdown thread? What are the conditions to be on the watchlist thread?Â
thanks,
Ark,