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RE: Group Indexes - pcabc - 2018-07-18
(2018-07-17, 01:06 PM)StageAnalysis Wrote:(2018-07-17, 01:00 PM)badcharts Wrote: Hi Mr. Barron,
I use also http://sceener.nextbigtrade.com
You can drill down index => sectors => stock.
Also has a bunch of cool other metrics, as how many stocks in each stage...Â
Regards,
Patrick
I would add a note of caution, as although a useful tool. The stages are generated by automated software and so are often not correct, as no one has found a good way to automate it yet, as there's too many variables involved. But it's certainly useful as a rough guide, but I'd recommend rechecking the stages yourself manually on anything that you look at.
This is interesting. I spent some time trying this myself. I found that by comparing closing price and the direction and relation of moving averages then stage 2's and 4's could be estimated, though one could argue about early and late parts of these stages and also what to do if the close drops below a rising 150 day MA. But I had difficulty distinguishing stages 1 and 3 and often found that reporting stage '1/3' was pragmatic. Prices are moving sideways with potentially lots of ups and downs so the MAs and their relations are not so useful.Â
I recall someone here using something, Donchian channels perhaps to help with estimating, which was interesting. Unfortunately I can't remember much of it.
I also note BadCharts use of the TrendAdviser diamond. I tried calculating the stages of that system a while back. It is logically defined, there is no ambiguity or human judgement, no wiggle room.
RE: Group Indexes - malaguti - 2018-07-22
(2018-07-18, 12:09 AM)pcabc Wrote: I recall someone here using something, Donchian channels perhaps to help with estimating, which was interesting. Unfortunately I can't remember much of it.
I also note BadCharts use of the TrendAdviser diamond. I tried calculating the stages of that system a while back. It is logically defined, there is no ambiguity or human judgement, no wiggle room.
That may have been me, pcabc. I've played with donchian for some time
a close greater than donchian 40, along with a trend filter to enter or stage 2
a close less than donchian 20, along with trend to exit or stage 4
anything in between is stage 1 or 3
Reentry at various points in a stage 2Â
I've been less concerned with stages 3 or 1 in all fairness as the optimum results is to hang onto your holdings, or reduce (not exit) at stage 3, exit completely at stage 4
the way I have it now is that a stage 4 might be a little late, but keeps me in a trend much much longer and not too late to eat into gains
the chart below is of the SPX without stages 1 and 3. blue is 2, 4 is red with reentry points at every pullback as long as stage 2 is in play
RE: Group Indexes - pcabc - 2018-07-23
(2018-07-18, 12:09 AM)pcabc Wrote: I also note BadCharts use of the TrendAdviser diamond. I tried calculating the stages of that system a while back. It is logically defined, there is no ambiguity or human judgement, no wiggle room.
I think I got that wrong, it was GrbaNT? Sorry.
RE: Beginners Questions - malaguti - 2018-07-24
In prorealtime I've created this indicator which gives a value for each stage
Stage 2 = 1, stage 4 = -1 and stage 3 and 1 =0
the code is attached also. It allows for a screener for a stage 2 or stage 2 continuation. let me know if you need anything for the screener
also, if anyone would like to make any suggestions, then i'm all ears
such as refining the entry, exit etc
it should be pretty self explanatory but in case of any doubt, just shout
it should be pretty easy to change if you prefer your own criteria
the stage2 is still as long as it can be, but have given the option of including stage 3s (and 1s), for a reentry type of screener
ironically a stage 2 sill advance as often as 5 (sometimes more)Â re-entries. if anyone who has covered elliot wave will know where im coming from!
RE: Beginners Questions - pcabc - 2018-07-24
(2018-07-24, 12:03 AM)malaguti Wrote: In prorealtime I've created this indicator which gives a value for each stage
Stage 2 = 1, stage 4 = -1 and stage 3 and 1 =0
the code is attached also. It allows for a screener for a stage 2 or stage 2 continuation. let me know if you need anything for the screener
also, if anyone would like to make any suggestions, then i'm all ears
such as refining the entry, exit etc
it should be pretty self explanatory but in case of any doubt, just shout
Thanks. Looks like there are several ways to skin a cat on this. Yours looks nice. I've not plotted my, now elderly, estimates in such a manner. Looking at the chart it would look like it would work nicely with the investors method.
RE: Beginners Questions - malaguti - 2018-07-24
(2018-07-24, 12:21 AM)pcabc Wrote:(2018-07-24, 12:03 AM)malaguti Wrote: In prorealtime I've created this indicator which gives a value for each stage
Stage 2 = 1, stage 4 = -1 and stage 3 and 1 =0
the code is attached also. It allows for a screener for a stage 2 or stage 2 continuation. let me know if you need anything for the screener
also, if anyone would like to make any suggestions, then i'm all ears
such as refining the entry, exit etc
it should be pretty self explanatory but in case of any doubt, just shout
Thanks. Looks like there are several ways to skin a cat on this. Yours looks nice. I've not plotted my, now elderly, estimates in such a manner. Looking at the chart it would look like it would work nicely with the investors method.
I updated it slightly for an earlier stage 3 since your post. and yes, its all about the investor method for me. on a weekly chart, its pretty good. allows for a long hold all the way to the end of a trend, also allows to add to positions on continuations
anyway, as you say many ways to skin a cat
I'll amend it to colour the bars as its probably easier visually
RE: Group Indexes - badcharts - 2018-07-24
(2018-07-23, 08:06 PM)pcabc Wrote:(2018-07-18, 12:09 AM)pcabc Wrote: I also note BadCharts use of the TrendAdviser diamond. I tried calculating the stages of that system a while back. It is logically defined, there is no ambiguity or human judgement, no wiggle room.
I think I got that wrong, it was GrbaNT? Sorry.
Hi Pete!
Yeah, I was wondering what I was doing with TrendAdviser
No prob!
Patrick
RE: Beginners Questions - badcharts - 2018-07-24
Hi All,
I'm re-reading some sections of Stan's book "Secret's for profiting in Bull and Bear markets"... two points I need guidance on:
1- p.25 Article 3. Do not use 30 week Simple moving average, but the 30 week Weighted moving average. Can't believe I oversaw that most important point. What are you guys using? Any experiments?
2- p.26 Article 5. Don't buy if Mansfield Relataive Strength Indicator is in a downtrend, even if above 0 line. I knew about crossing over the 0 (from neg to pos) was bullish. but had glossed over the first fact. By this mesure, do we have to wait for MRS to turn upwards before we enter after a pullback?
To go even furthur, does the calculation for the Mansfield Relative Strength Indicator change? Instead of using the simple MA, we should use the weighted MA?
(currently digging here => https://stageanalysis.net/forum/showthread.php?tid=11&pid=10033&highlight=weighted#pid10033 )
Thanks again in advance for your feedback!
Regards,
Patrick