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+--- Thread: Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis and Market Breadth - Technical Analysis (/Thread-Stan-Weinstein-s-Stage-Analysis-and-Market-Breadth-Technical-Analysis)
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RE: Market Breadth - isatrader - 2013-09-21
Attached is the NYSE Bullish Percent Index and the NYSE long, medium and short term moving average breadth charts.
The NYSE Bullish Percent Index
NYSE Percentage of Stocks above their 200 Day, 150 Day and 50 Day Moving Averages P&F charts
NYSE Percentage of Stocks above their 200 Day, 150 Day and 50 Day Moving Averages line charts
US Industry Sectors Breadth - isatrader - 2013-09-21
The sector breadth charts continued higher this week with a further three sectors moving above their moving averages and back on to buy signals. So all the sectors are now back in the green.
Below is the data table for the Percent of Stocks Above 150 Day Moving Average in each sector which I've ordered by relative strength, with the highest to the lowest percentage in each sector. Also attached is the visual diagram of the 9 sectors and the NYSE Percentage of Stocks above their 150 day Moving Averages line chart.
Advance Decline Breadth Charts - isatrader - 2013-09-21
Attached is the updated Advance Decline Breadth Charts, including the cumulative AD line, momentum index, cumulative AD volume line, 10 Day AD oscillator and the McClellan Oscillator and Summation Index.
New Highs New Lows - isatrader - 2013-09-21
Attached is the New Highs / New Lows charts
Volatility Breadth Charts - isatrader - 2013-09-21
Attached is the updated volatility breadth charts
US Industry Sectors - isatrader - 2013-09-22
Attached are the updated US Major Sector Charts and relative performance table.
RE: Market Breadth Update - theory6453 - 2013-09-24
I don't keep up with this Market Breadth thread as much as I should however I have gathered from other threads that we may be nearing a top in the overall market and entering an early Stage 3. That being said, I read this tidbit in this week's Barron's and thought it was particularly interesting. Apparently the author of one of the articles quoted an analyst as saying that the average bull market lasts about 39 months and this bull market is currently 54 months old. Food for thought...
RE: Market Breadth Update - gbarbs - 2013-09-24
I posted my thoughts on the market indicators on this thread about 10 days ago. I'll revisit them below. Others thoughts are appreciated. I am treating the market with caution as if it may be topping. But certainly am still invested and buying opportunities because I haven't seen strong enough warning but have initiated some short positions to provide a hedge. As I am writing this I've been stopped out on one of my shorts (GEO). So, maybe that means Im trying to go against the market with those shorts.
As far as the length of the bull market, I don't put much into that. If you did that you'd have missed out more than the last year. So I am just going by the indicators. Here's my take. Interested to see what others think....
1. Dow is still stage 2 but has pierced its 30 wma and is rising less sharply. Its losing some incline but still increasing. Remains stage 2. I revisited this today and noted the S&P has not broken its 30 wma, or its trendline, and although the Dow pierced its 30 wma, its 150 day MA acted as support. A double check of all the sector charts shows the overwhelming majority are bullish. Bottom line is stage analysis is still BULLISH
2. NYAD. I see very slight divergence on recent peaks. It is over a few months. Maybe it will be easy to see if the Dow gets to another peak and the AD does not. I don't give this a bullish rating because there is slight divergence since the beginning of August. It is short term so not a dire warning, but warrants caution. NEUTRAL
3. Div ratio. I don't use this since it has been low for 20 years, but the Schiller PE and S&P PE are above average. I don't know that it is flashing a signal necesarily, but again some caution is warranted. NO SIGNAL
4. Momentum Index - I don't see any warning there. There was a sharp drop last year but not down thru zero. Its been declining since about May but not to a level of warning. BULLISH
5. World index is in stage 2. I went through the individual charts and have 11 stage 2's, 6 neutral (stage 1 or 3), and 3 stage 4's. Went through them again today and the majority are bullish. BULLISH
6. GM is probably not valid any more but is stage 2 along with Ford, and General Electric. XOM is neutral and AAPL is just coming out of stage 1 into 2. Today I added in WMT and that is bearish but the majority here are bullish. BULLISH.
7. I have noticed analyst ratings are becoming more bullish. I was exploring my brokerage site and entering tickers into the research page. I did not come across a single one that had a sell signal. Not scientific at all as I was picking them at random, but that made me think of this indicator. I can't count it as a vote against but would like to know what others think. NO SIGNAL for now...
8. NYHL - I see divergence on this. This one has declining peaks going back to last year. So a definite warning there. Its also dipped into negative territory this year so can't say it has consistently been in positive territory.
BEARISH
9. Not a Weinstein indicator but the NYSE bullish % reversed down from above 70. It has not crossed back below 70 so I am not sure if it is a valid warning sign yet. It did cross 70 on the previous column of O's so I will count it as an early warning unless someone advises otherwise. BEARISH
So, total score:
2 bearish
4 bullish
3 no signal
Below was from my previous post about 10 days ago. I saw things a little different that day. That's why it is good to keep up every week I suppose:
3 bearish warnings of reversal (2,3,8)
2 bullish signs (1,5)
3 no signal (4,6,7)