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+--- Thread: Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis and Market Breadth - Technical Analysis (/Thread-Stan-Weinstein-s-Stage-Analysis-and-Market-Breadth-Technical-Analysis)
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RE: Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis and Market Breadth - Technical Analysis - pcabc - 2023-06-18
A few breadth measures - comparisons
Broker dealers versus the S&P500
The brokers have been weaker than the S&P 500 for a few months now, suggesting that people are less confident in the market owing to the prices of brokers being depressed.
S&P500 versus the equal weight S&P500
The relative strength of the market cap weighted S&P500 versus the equal weight S&P500 as has a small pullback, but generally the market cap weighted has been stronger - indicating that its the larger caps leading.
Equal weight Consumer Discretionary versus equal weight Customer Staples
Looks like discresionary have been strengthening, but with a big climb up, pullback but another climb. This is generally a bullish sign versus the more bearish signs above.
S&P600 versus S&P500
Simply the small caps are weaker than the large caps, a bearish sign.
RE: Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis and Market Breadth - Technical Analysis - pcabc - 2023-06-18
S&P500 versus Russell 3000
% stocks over their 20, 50 and 200 day EMAs are approximately 75, 70 and 50% respectively [2, 3, & 4]. THis is looking strong except for the % stocks over their 200 day EMA which you would think would be stronger if the index was rising so strongly. My estimation of the % stocks in Stage 2 and 4 show slightly more stocks in Stage 2 than 4. However, given that these are around the 33% level I'd want to see the number in Stage 2 rise to so it was clear the broader market was in Stage 2.
All in all I think that breadth is a bit of a mixed bag. There are some bearish and some bullish indicators. So although some of the indicies are strong need to be cautious.
RE: Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis and Market Breadth - Technical Analysis - pcabc - 2023-07-09
Possible general strengthening of breadth, relative strength comparisons?
I've seem some signs, but there is a contradiction.
S&P600 versus S&P500 (market cap weighted):
The S&P600, small-cap, has plunged in recent months against the S&P500, large caps. But that has just leveled off. So the small caps were weaker than the large caps, but now they are showing similar relative strength.
S&P500, market cap weighted versus S&P500, equal weighted:
This time the S&P500 is compared against an equal weight version of it. So, if only the largest market cap constituents are moving the index up then the market cap weighted version should lead the equal weighted version - if the broad market, the largest and smaller constituents should move together meaning that the relative strength plot should flatten. After a strong rise, which will be due to the large caps, it has leveled off over the last six weeks.
Russell 1000 Equal weight versus Russell 1000:
This is where I am confused. The above indicate a broad strengthening in market breadth with small caps gaining strength compared to large caps. However, here we have the Russell 1000 Equal Weight plotted against the Russell 1000 (which is market cap based). The equal weighted is stronger then weekend over the last month. So the small caps weaken having been stronger. This is the opposite behaviors to the previous comparisons. Perhaps I've got the two indices back to front when calculating the relative strength, but I cannot see it.
Still, better to be honest and post the data 'warts and all' than cherry pick the charts that fit a theory.
RE: Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis and Market Breadth - Technical Analysis - pcabc - 2023-07-20
Signs of strengthening continue
The small caps continue to strengthen against the large caps after a long decline:
Broker dealers strengthening against the S&P500 over the last two weeks:
RE: Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis and Market Breadth - Technical Analysis - pcabc - 2023-07-20
S&P500 v Russell 3000 - strengthening
Looking at the breadth chart here we have not only strong %s of stocks above their 20 and 50 day EMAs [3 & 4], but the % above their 200 day EMAs is up to around 60%. Significantly my estimate of the % stocks in Stage 2 is about 45% roughly [6 green], and the % in Stage 4 [6 red] has dropped sharply over the last couple of weeks.
RE: Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis and Market Breadth - Technical Analysis - isatrader - 2023-11-09
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