(2022-01-20, 12:15 PM)isatrader Wrote: 20 year Nasdaq Composite chart with percentage of stocks above their 200 day MA, 150 day MA and 50 day MA underneath for comparison to past periods

Highlighted areas are when 200 day MA was below 30% level. Red line is current level in each.



#stocks #trading #investing #money

(2022-01-20, 10:23 PM)pcabc Wrote: Hmm.  Not too sure what to conclude.  Unless it is 2008 it seems that we are in a pullback but in a few months it will be higher.  But if it is early 2008 then if you hold on there is a much bigger drop to come.  However, looking at the red lines versus the %ages in the shaded areas, t, those percentages have a fair way to drop.  On that basis the pullback will continue for a while?

Does this sound reasonable?

(2022-01-20, 10:36 PM)isatrader Wrote: I think the last two year period in the breadth resembles the 2003/2004 and 2009/2010 periods. So I'm judging it compared to the 2004 and 2010 data. Hence we are currently lower than 2010 correction in the 200 day MA, but still above the 2004 level. So my working theory is that we are near to a swing low, but could get a lot more painful yet, that then could give us a modest run for 6 months or so.

(2022-01-20, 10:45 PM)pcabc Wrote: It would be very good if you are right, here's hoping.  My more agressive approach to breadth has kept me out of equities for quite a while.  Pivoting to bond ETFs in that account whist I'm waiting for breadth to improve has done me no favors though.

Also worth adding, its a shame that the last 10 minutes of Googling has not found a simple CSV or text format list of NASDAQ composite components - so its hard for my to run my breadth calcs on that.  Breadth of the other index components is does not exactly follow the NASDAQ composite at the moment, the picture is a bit rosier.