Stage Analysis Forum - Trading & Investing using Stan Weinstein's Stocks Breakout method
US Stocks Breakouts & Breakdowns - SP500, NYSE, & Nasdaq Stock Charts - Printable Version

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RE: US Stocks and ETFs - Watchlist and Discussion - pcabc - 2019-06-30

(2019-06-29, 11:41 PM)Mactheriverrat Wrote: No I wasn't - 

I like your charts

I think I just won't post anymore-

Don't stop posting but I admit your bold text response did provoke me to respond.  Anyway, not sure if this is the best place, but I think some annotation of one of my charts is a good idea.  My charts are very busy, but I like to see all infomation in one go.  See CURE below:
   

1 & 2:  Breakout (green) and stop loss levels (red).  I created my own breakout level indicator many years back.  The one shown here is the results of my experimentation after some discussions on this forum and my back testing.  The green line is used in my screener to detect breakouts.  The red stop loss level is something that worked well in backtesting, but I use it more as a guide and often place it tighter.  If you look at 2 you will note it is higher than the price.  This is a faily insidious bug that I am yet to track down and only appears occasionally.

3.  Keltner channels.  Yes, not covered in the book.  There has been some discussion of them on this forum.  I probably ought to turn them off by default, so fair point.

4.  The black and red is the relative strength of the stock price against the chosen index and the zero line with is a long term moving average.  If you flattened this moving average line out you would get the Mansfield relative strength.  So it is not quite like the book.  On some charting software you cannot plot the Mansfield relative strength, but you can plot this.  There is a thread on this subject.  Further, from Isa's interview with Stan Weinstein (a coup) and I think review of some of Stan Weinstein's newsletters it is apparent that the slope of the zero line on the relative strength should be rising.  So it is well worth plotting this one.

5.  The Mansfield relative strength, as per the book.

6. This is the ratio of today's volume versus the average volume of the past few weeks.  You won't see this elsewhere (unless someone else independently plots it).  I find this a useful gauge of volume and it fits in with the principles of the book.  More rigorous than just eyeballing it.

7.  The average volume of the past week (five days) compared to the previous few weeks.  I'm afraid I mislaid my copy of the book, but it is along the lines of the principle of the book in that it allows me to compare the last weeks volume with proceeding weeks, again, more rigorous than just eyeballing it.

8. Compares volume of the last few weeks with the weeks proceeding that.  Alternative / compliment to 7, again, based on the descriptive text in the relative part of the book.

9.  The MACD.  Don't use it much but I have used it for judging pullbacks.

10.  Price / Volume Trend, Cummulative Force Index and On Balance volume overlaid.  Fair cop, thought they would be useful but don't really use them.  Ought to delete at some point.

11.  Average True Range.  Can be used for stop loss and position sizing.  Useful idea of volatility, also used as a basis for Keltner Channels.

12.  Something I made up completely - compares last five days price * volume with that of a longer term, and using some maths makes this into an oscillator.  If it is near +2 price is rising on strong volume, -2 falling on strong volume, -1 to +1, nothing interesting happening.  Some utility, I was experimenting.

US Stocks and ETFs - Watchlist and Discussion - isatrader - 2019-07-02

Ok, I'm back from my holidays, so will be back to normal service for the US and Canadian listed stocks watchlist from now on.

Here's what has catch my eye from Tuesdays scans - AMRN, AMZN, AVLR, AVXL, BRFS, BZUN, CD.V, HUYA, ROKU, RY, TRX, ZS

Disclaimer: I'm already long ZS, which appears in tonights list. See my journal thread for details of the trade entry from 6th May.

                                           

RE: US Stocks and ETFs - Watchlist and Discussion - Mactheriverrat - 2019-07-03

@pcabc 
I jumped the gun here. I will still post here as I enjoy you posts . I  was really referring to other stock filters scanner's that I've seen. I like your breakdown of the indicators that you have. To me if one can use what ever they use to make a buck  then do it.

@isatreader
Always enjoy your US stock posts.

US Stocks and ETFs - Watchlist and Discussion - isatrader - 2019-07-03

For the watchlist from Wednesdays scans - ARVN, BAND, CHGG, MTCH, PI, SBGI, SVMK

                           

RE: US Stocks and ETFs - Watchlist and Discussion - pcabc - 2019-07-07

CPK, CSCO, GSI, LSCC, MIDD, NKE, MLAB, MORN, MRVL, NSTG, TERP, TSN:
           
           
           
           

US Stocks and ETFs - Watchlist and Discussion - isatrader - 2019-07-07

For the watchlist from the weekend scans - BLDP, CPA, CVNA, CVRS, CWEB.TO, PINS, RVLV, X.TO, ZM

                                   

RE: US Stocks and ETFs - Watchlist and Discussion - briansmith456 - 2019-07-07

(2019-07-07, 07:26 PM)isatrader Wrote: For the watchlist from the weekend scans - BLDP, CPA, CVNA, CVRS, CWEB.TO, PINS, RVLV, X.TO, ZM

Hi Isa,
I was wondering how BLDP may be a buy candidate from your scan given it is about 30% above the 30 ema? I notice many others you show from your scan on various days seem to be very extended from the 30 ema so just wondering if I am missing something?

Thanks,
Brian

RE: US Stocks and ETFs - Watchlist and Discussion - isatrader - 2019-07-07

(2019-07-07, 09:07 PM)briansmith456 Wrote: I was wondering how BLDP may be a buy candidate from your scan given it is about 30% above the 30 ema? I notice many others you show from your scan on various days seem to be very extended from the 30 ema so just wondering if I am missing something?

The daily watchlist that I do is not necessarily showing stocks at a buy point. The majority are not when they are posted. However, they are showing characteristics that I look for in the method and may be near to a potential buy point, or have recently passed a buy point and only come on to the radar at a higher level due to the volume coming in as a stock has broken out. This doesn't mean that there won't be other chances to enter if a stock continues to show what I look for. So how I use the watchlist is to set alerts in the stocks in my trading software at the correct buy points once the stocks come onto my radar, which maybe months away still. Personally I'm always looking for a Volatility Contraction Pattern  (VCP) these days - read Mark Minervini's excellent books, which expands on the Stage Analysis trader method, as I believe it's essential in managing risk and still getting high returns.

With regards to BLDP. The 30 week MA isn't the only MA to consider, as with the Stage Analysis Trader method the 10 week or 50 day MA is more important for entries and exits, as you rarely get near to the 30 week MA. I'm also a big believer that percentage moves are mostly irrelevant, as every stock has it's own unique volatility i.e a small cap might move 10% a week on average whereas a very large cap stock might only move 2% on average. BLDP for example has an 8.7% a week range currently, whereas AAPL has a 4.4% a week range (which is quite high for a stock like Apple, but shows how volatile it's been over the last year even in the large caps). So I prefer to use the Average True Range (ATR) to judge if a stock is extended at the entry point and for position sizing to equalize this disparity. I use the 52 week ATR (others prefer to use a much shorter time frame). But for me when using a weekly chart, I want to know what a stocks average weekly trading range has been over the last year. So the 52 week ATR suits me best. I use 2 x the 52 week ATR as my maximum risk from years of trial and error. To calculate that, I'll subtract 2 x the 52 week ATR from the entry point price. Then if that figure is below the most recent swing low and also the 50 day MA (or 10 week MA) then it's within my risk tolerance and hence not extended from normal weekly range.

BLDP is near a potential early Stage 2 continuation buy point at 4.28, and the 52 week ATR is 0.369. So therefore, 4.28 - (0.369 x 2) = 3.542 max risk. The 50 day MA is at 3.75 and the most recent swing low is at 3.44. So, currently the buy point would violate my risk tolerance, as the stop loss would have to be more than 2x the 52 week ATR to put it below the 50 day MA and the most recent support. However, the move up since mid June has been sharp, and so the current buy point also wouldn't meet my requirements, as I look for volatility contractions before the breakout point. So I'd want to see it consolidate around the current level with a shallower pullback than the June pullback was. i.e. the volatility contraction and on light volume during the consolidation. Then it would be more interesting, as would have a lower risk setup. But currently, as I said, it breaks my rules. So is on the watchlist so I can keep an eye on it incase it ever meets the above criteria. Most stocks don't. But that's the point of the watchlist.

I hope that helps.