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+--- Thread: Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis and Market Breadth - Technical Analysis (/Thread-Stan-Weinstein-s-Stage-Analysis-and-Market-Breadth-Technical-Analysis)
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New Highs New Lows $NYHL - isatrader - 2013-06-22
Attached is the New Highs / New Lows charts.
Advance Decline Breadth Charts - isatrader - 2013-06-22
Attached is the updated Advance Decline Breadth Charts, including the cumulative AD line, momentum index, cumulative AD volume line, 10 Day AD oscillator and the McClellan Oscillator and Summation Index.
S&P 500 Cumulative P&F Breakouts - Breakdowns - isatrader - 2013-06-22
Attached is the updated S&P 500 Cumulative P&F Breakouts - Breakdowns charts which broke down firmly this week, and now have a tally for the month of 47 breakouts to 119 breakdowns.
Also note on the straight P&F Breakouts minus Breakdowns chart that the 20 day MA has crossed firmly below the zero line into bear territory.
RE: Market Breadth Update - isatrader - 2013-06-22
Attached is the NYSE Bullish Percent Index and the NYSE long, medium and short term moving average breadth charts, which have now all moved into negative territory.
Today saw the first double bottom breakdown on the NYSE Bullish Percent Index since August 2011 and moves the long term gauge to Bear Confirmed status while crossing below the key 70% level.
US Industry Sectors Breadth - isatrader - 2013-06-22
This week saw more big moves in the individual sectors with Utilities being hit particularly hard with an over -20% move. But no sector escaped the selling and all had reasonably large moves lower as stocks broke below their 150 day moving averages, and the last hold out which was Technology last week, moved to a sell signal to put all nine of the sectors on sell signals. But note that they are still mostly in the upper mid ranges of their scales currently - as can be seen clearly on the visual diagram.
Remember as we've mentioned previously the NYSE percentage of stocks above their 150 Day moving average has a strong correlation with Weinstein's proprietary Stages Surveys that measure the amount of stocks in Stages 1 and 2. And he mentioned on the November interview that a move from the upper range to below the 50% in his Stages Surveys is an indication that the market is moving into Stage 4, so at the current levels we are getting closer to that, but are not quite there yet. So from these internals I'd surmise that the majority are currently in Stage 3, and that we need to be alert to the possibility of them moving into Stage 4.
Below is the data table for the Percent of Stocks Above 150 Day Moving Average in each sector which I've ordered by relative strength, with the highest to the lowest percentage in each sector. Also attached is the visual diagram of the 9 sectors and the NYSE Percentage of Stocks above their 150 day Moving Averages line chart.
Major Stock Indexes Update - isatrader - 2013-06-23
Attached is the updated major equity index charts and relative performance table.
I wrote last week about the Vix moving to the top of the relative performance table and that a close above 18.20 this week would move it into Stage 2A. Well we got that this week as the Vix moved higher and extended it's lead on the relative performance table. However, there were a number of interesting developments this week as well with the 30 week WMA momentum breaking down on the S&P 500 and clearer Stage 3 tops beginning to form in the major US markets.
The European markets fared worse however, with the Dax also in Stage 3, and the FTSE 100 breaking down below it's 2013 lows to move into early Stage 4A. Both of which can be seen with their declining positions on the relative performance table below.
US Stock Indexes
European Stock Indexes
Commodities Update and the Dollar Index - isatrader - 2013-06-23
Attached is the updated major commodities charts, Gold (GC), Copper (HG), West Texas Intermediate Crude (CL) and the Dollar Index (DX).
US 10 & 30 Year Treasuries - isatrader - 2013-06-23
Attached is the updated US 10 & 30 Year Treasuries charts, which continued their Stage 4 declines this week on above average volume once again, and in fact passed the initial Stage 4 swing targets that I marked up back in March on the thread here: http://stageanalysis.net/forum/showthread.php?tid=1&pid=198#pid198