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Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis and Market Breadth - Technical Analysis - Printable Version

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RE: Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis - BarnabeBear - 2018-05-06

Thanks grbaNT !

A tat disappointing given the end of the week move. But I guess congruent with the fact that the rest of the week was gloomy. Interesting times which enable to test the validity of the Weinstein theory in real-life Wink


RE: Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis - grbaNT - 2018-05-06

(2018-05-06, 05:52 PM)BarnabeBear Wrote: Thanks grbaNT !

A tat disappointing given the end of the week move. But I guess congruent with the fact that the rest of the week was gloomy. Interesting times which enable to test the validity of the Weinstein theory in real-life Wink

Yep, had the exact same feeling. Was expecting up week in the Survey. That is why I like the market breadth. Waiting for 3% and bigger weekly moves in the averages and the survey out of the range is the real signal to put much more cash at work. Best


RE: Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis - isatrader - 2018-05-06

(2018-05-06, 07:11 PM)grbaNT Wrote: Yep, had the exact same feeling. Was expecting up week in the Survey. That is why I like the market breadth. Waiting for 3% and bigger weekly moves in the averages and the survey out of the range is the real signal to put much more cash at work. Best

I know you don't use the NYSE Percentage of Stocks above their 150 day MA chart, and the other time frame MA breadth averages due to your survey, but the daily version of the 150 day MA does give some extra context to the week, as it was almost 7% lower than last week at it's low, but although it finished the week lower than the previous by 2.53%, it did have a recovery near the end of the week to finish higher than it opened the week, and so recovered over 4%, and is also around 10% higher than it was at the April lows a month ago, so there is a fairly strong divergence showing in the NYSE Percentage of Stocks above their 150 day MA chart. And also the other short and longer term timeframes too. The short term especially, which gave a new P&F Bull Confirmed signal on April 10th, which was then followed by the 150 day chart on April 16th. (See http://www.investorsintelligence.com/x/breadth_indicators.html for descriptions of the P&F market breadth signals for anyone reading this that doesn't understand what they are).

So I find the usefulness of the multi time frame approach from these missing from Weinstein's survey. Whereas the moving average breadth charts can give short, medium and long term information, as well as being used together as one for the weight of evidence approach. Hence I think there's benefits to both the stage survey and MA breadth if used in a multi time frame approach for the weight of evidence. As have been clear leading indicators over the years.

           


RE: Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis - BarnabeBear - 2018-05-07

Agree with you, Isa, also looking at the 50D and 150D to have the full picture. This adds momentum to grbaNT's survey

By the way, I'm not monitoring the 200D. Does it really bring something to the table when you already have the 150 at hand?


RE: Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis - isatrader - 2018-05-07

(2018-05-07, 03:06 PM)BarnabeBear Wrote: Agree with you, Isa, also looking at the 50D and 150D to have the full picture. This adds momentum to grbaNT's survey

By the way, I'm not monitoring the 200D. Does it really bring something to the table when you already have the 150 at hand?


Definitely as it's a more long term indicator and less frequently gets below the 50% level than the 150 day does, and only really gets below 40% when the market is in Stage 4, but it should also be combined with the NYSE Bullish Percent Index, which is considered the head coach for long term moves using the signals based on the definitions created by investors intelligence. i.e. Bull Confirmed, Bull Correction, Bull Alert, Bear Confirmed, Bear Correction, Bear Alert and Bull Top. For example the NYSE Bullish Percent Index currently remains on Bear Correction status, and would need to make a P&F double top breakout above the 60% level to move back to Bull Confirmed or drop below 48% to move to Bear Confirmed status.

       


RE: Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis - grbaNT - 2018-05-08

(2018-05-06, 08:08 PM)isatrader Wrote:
(2018-05-06, 07:11 PM)grbaNT Wrote: Yep, had the exact same feeling. Was expecting up week in the Survey. That is why I like the market breadth. Waiting for 3% and bigger weekly moves in the averages and the survey out of the range is the real signal to put much more cash at work. Best

I know you don't use the NYSE Percentage of Stocks above their 150 day MA chart, and the other time frame MA breadth averages due to your survey, but the daily version of the 150 day MA does give some extra context to the week, as it was almost 7% lower than last week at it's low, but although it finished the week lower than the previous by 2.53%, it did have a recovery near the end of the week to finish higher than it opened the week, and so recovered over 4%, and is also around 10% higher than it was at the April lows a month ago, so there is a fairly strong divergence showing in the NYSE Percentage of Stocks above their 150 day MA chart. And also the other short and longer term timeframes too. The short term especially, which gave a new P&F Bull Confirmed signal on April 10th, which was then followed by the 150 day chart on April 16th. (See http://www.investorsintelligence.com/x/breadth_indicators.html for descriptions of the P&F market breadth signals for anyone reading this that doesn't understand what they are).

So I find the usefulness of the multi time frame approach from these missing from Weinstein's survey. Whereas the moving average breadth charts can give short, medium and long term information, as well as being used together as one for the weight of evidence approach. Hence I think there's benefits to both the stage survey and MA breadth if used in a multi time frame approach for the weight of evidence. As have been clear leading indicators over the years.

Thank you for your observation. I do use MA breadth and P&F market breadth signals, but I like to see their signals confirmed by the survey for obvious reasons. I think that together they make a great tool set. 

There is one other market breadth indicator I use that I would like to share here if you agree. I use the same sample as for the Survey but the data set is smaller as I started putting it together almost two years ago. Stock classification is done as per Chuck Dukas's TrendAdvisor Diamond described in his book. Stocks in bullish, accumulation and recovery phase are considered healthy and cumulatively plotted as an oscillator, same as in the Survey. Those in warning, distribution and bearish phases are considered technically unhealthy. I would post the trendadvisor diamond picture from the book here (for other members to get to know more about the phase) but I am not sure if I am allowed to do so (for copyright reasons). Let me know if I can do that and if you are interested in adding this indicator to the forum tools. Best


RE: Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis - isatrader - 2018-05-08

(2018-05-08, 07:01 AM)grbaNT Wrote: Thank you for your observation. I do use MA breadth and P&F market breadth signals, but I like to see their signals confirmed by the survey for obvious reasons. I think that together they make a great tool set. 

There is one other market breadth indicator I use that I would like to share here if you agree. I use the same sample as for the Survey but the data set is smaller as I started putting it together almost two years ago. Stock classification is done as per Chuck Dukas's TrendAdvisor Diamond described in his book. Stocks in bullish, accumulation and recovery phase are considered healthy and cumulatively plotted as an oscillator, same as in the Survey. Those in warning, distribution and bearish phases are considered technically unhealthy. I would post the trendadvisor diamond picture from the book here (for other members to get to know more about the phase) but I am not sure if I am allowed to do so (for copyright reasons). Let me know if I can do that and if you are interested in adding this indicator to the forum tools. Best

I would say as it's something that you compile yourself, then I can't see any copyright issues of showing it, as it's your own work. And we can just call it something else to be on the safe side. grbaNT's Trendadvisor Diamond Smile

So I think it would be a great addition to the breadth indicators that we show use on here, as it all adds to the weight of evidence.


RE: Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis - grbaNT - 2018-05-08

(2018-05-06, 08:08 PM)isatrader Wrote:
(2018-05-06, 07:11 PM)grbaNT Wrote: Yep, had the exact same feeling. Was expecting up week in the Survey. That is why I like the market breadth. Waiting for 3% and bigger weekly moves in the averages and the survey out of the range is the real signal to put much more cash at work. Best

I know you don't use the NYSE Percentage of Stocks above their 150 day MA chart, and the other time frame MA breadth averages due to your survey, but the daily version of the 150 day MA does give some extra context to the week, as it was almost 7% lower than last week at it's low, but although it finished the week lower than the previous by 2.53%, it did have a recovery near the end of the week to finish higher than it opened the week, and so recovered over 4%, and is also around 10% higher than it was at the April lows a month ago, so there is a fairly strong divergence showing in the NYSE Percentage of Stocks above their 150 day MA chart. And also the other short and longer term timeframes too. The short term especially, which gave a new P&F Bull Confirmed signal on April 10th, which was then followed by the 150 day chart on April 16th. (See http://www.investorsintelligence.com/x/breadth_indicators.html for descriptions of the P&F market breadth signals for anyone reading this that doesn't understand what they are).

So I find the usefulness of the multi time frame approach from these missing from Weinstein's survey. Whereas the moving average breadth charts can give short, medium and long term information, as well as being used together as one for the weight of evidence approach. Hence I think there's benefits to both the stage survey and MA breadth if used in a multi time frame approach for the weight of evidence. As have been clear leading indicators over the years.

(2018-05-08, 08:03 AM)isatrader Wrote:
(2018-05-08, 07:01 AM)grbaNT Wrote: Thank you for your observation. I do use MA breadth and P&F market breadth signals, but I like to see their signals confirmed by the survey for obvious reasons. I think that together they make a great tool set. 

There is one other market breadth indicator I use that I would like to share here if you agree. I use the same sample as for the Survey but the data set is smaller as I started putting it together almost two years ago. Stock classification is done as per Chuck Dukas's TrendAdvisor Diamond described in his book. Stocks in bullish, accumulation and recovery phase are considered healthy and cumulatively plotted as an oscillator, same as in the Survey. Those in warning, distribution and bearish phases are considered technically unhealthy. I would post the trendadvisor diamond picture from the book here (for other members to get to know more about the phase) but I am not sure if I am allowed to do so (for copyright reasons). Let me know if I can do that and if you are interested in adding this indicator to the forum tools. Best

I would say as it's something that you compile yourself, then I can't see any copyright issues of showing it, as it's your own work. And we can just call it something else to be on the safe side. grbaNT's Trendadvisor Diamond Smile

So I think it would be a great addition to the breadth indicators that we show use on here, as it all adds to the weight of evidence.
 
There it is! This is from the weekend scan, so does not include yesterday's data. I call this indicator RABWDB (recovery, accumulation, bullish, warning, distribution, bearish).

I will repeat again, sample is the same as for the Survey (2287 stocks). Stock classification is done as per Chuck Dukas's TrendAdvisor Diamond described in his book (see attached TrendAdvisor Diamond). Stocks in bullish, accumulation and recovery phases are considered healthy and cumulatively plotted as an oscillator, same as in the Survey. Those in warning, distribution and bearish phases are considered technically unhealthy. I have also attached RABWDB for SP500, SP600 and SP400 and the plots of individual stages. Hope you find it useful!