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+--- Thread: Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis and Market Breadth - Technical Analysis (/Thread-Stan-Weinstein-s-Stage-Analysis-and-Market-Breadth-Technical-Analysis)
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RE: Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis - BarnabeBear - 2018-04-27
My pleasure. As mentioned by Weinstein in the Technically Speaking ITW (another hugely valuable item from this forum!), the two indicators he would bring with him on a desert island (but to what avail, if you're on a desert island anyway??) are the ADLine and the Nyse Survey. So I'm VERY grateful to you that you publicly display your huge work on the survey every week, that's an amazing feat.
Through your methodology do you think it will ever be possible to potentially extend further back in the past the survey, or is it impossible to do or to time-consuming. The great benefeit I would see in that is that we would be able to backtest how pertinent the survey is to identifying major crises in the markets? (yes, I know I'm a dreamer, but I would love to be able to do this
I did this job of looking back for all the indicators that SW puts forth (in his book and also in the TS ITW) and which can be had from stockcharts and it gives huge comfort that all MAJOR downturns in the market (ie those that smash your portfolio big time and take a long time for it to recover) can be "foreseen" by a major divergence (as he says 3 to 4 months (TS ITW)) b/w ADLine and the indices. Then it's a question of confirmation with what he calls his Momentum Index (200D AD average) that goes below 0, as well as the NHNL. The beauty of his system to assess the market's health is that we have out of sample examples since the publishing of his book, and some significant at that ! (2000/01, 2007/08 - huge krachs with clear divergences beforehand, but also 2011 or 2015 which stopped at max -20% and recovered rapidly). And they work !
So, with the ADLine, and your survey (+all the other indicators he uses in his weight of evidence) we should be able to avoid being crushed when the next big ones shows up. (that's been my main objective since I first discovered about SW). Kudos for you.
(ps: I have mentioned this forum and your survey on a French traders' forum where there is a thread dedicated to Stan Weinstein [and Lars Tvede], so you may get more interest coming your way)
Major US Stock Indexes Update - NYSE, Nasdaq, S&P 500, DJIA & S&P 600 small caps - isatrader - 2018-04-28
Here's the overview charts of the US Bullish Percent and Moving Average Breadth.
Note: the US markets remain in Stage 3. However, the push below the 30 week MAs was rejected again, and the weekly candles all managed to close above it with only minor negative changes from the previous week. So the markets are forming some shorter term ranges which will help guide on direction depending on which way it breaks from it.
The Bullish percent and moving average breadth remains in the middle ranges around the 50% to 60% range in most, so are neutral currently which is a sign of consolidation range. i.e. what we see in Stage 3 or 1.
As I've said previously, remain nimble, minimise your risk and focus on the quality of your trades, as Stage 3 is very much a volatile traders environment for both longs and shorts.
P&F Double top breakouts and P&F Double bottom breakdowns breadth charts - isatrader - 2018-04-28
Attached is my custom breadth charts that I do based on the daily point and figure double top and double bottom breakdowns for those that don't follow the thread.
Note: a positive divergence with the market price action seems to be occuring with all the oscillators above zero in positive territory and the cumulative line above it's 50 day MA, which has itself now turned up.
RE: Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis - kero - 2018-04-28
Interesting. The divergence can also be seen on the Nyse-NHNL chart.
NYSE Market Breadth Update - isatrader - 2018-04-28
Attached is the NYSE Bullish Percent Index and the NYSE long, medium and short term moving average breadth charts.
The NYSE Bullish Percent Index
Note: Bear correction status
NYSE Percentage of Stocks above their 200 Day, 150 Day and 50 Day Moving Averages P&F charts
Note: 200 day is on Bull confirmed status, and the 150 day and 50 day are on Bull correction status
NYSE Percentage of Stocks above their 200 Day, 150 Day and 50 Day Moving Averages line charts
NYSE Advance Decline Breadth Charts - isatrader - 2018-04-28
Attached is the updated Advance Decline Breadth Charts, including the cumulative AD line, momentum index, cumulative AD volume line, 10 Day AD oscillator and the McClellan Oscillator and Summation Index.
US New Highs / New Lows Charts - isatrader - 2018-04-28
Attached is the US New Highs / New Lows charts.
Note: divergence occuring in the standard charts with progressively lower amounts of new lows occuring, a well as progressively lower new highs, which can be seen clearly in the cumulative line as it has flattened out since the start of the year. However the cumulative line still remains below it's flattening 50 day MA which it hasn't been below for a few years, although it is very close to the MA and the highs still, so could easily change.
RE: Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis - grbaNT - 2018-04-29
(2018-04-27, 06:30 PM)BarnabeBear Wrote: My pleasure. As mentioned by Weinstein in the Technically Speaking ITW (another hugely valuable item from this forum!), the two indicators he would bring with him on a desert island (but to what avail, if you're on a desert island anyway??) are the ADLine and the Nyse Survey. So I'm VERY grateful to you that you publicly display your huge work on the survey every week, that's an amazing feat.
Through your methodology do you think it will ever be possible to potentially extend further back in the past the survey, or is it impossible to do or to time-consuming. The great benefeit I would see in that is that we would be able to backtest how pertinent the survey is to identifying major crises in the markets? (yes, I know I'm a dreamer, but I would love to be able to do this
I did this job of looking back for all the indicators that SW puts forth (in his book and also in the TS ITW) and which can be had from stockcharts and it gives huge comfort that all MAJOR downturns in the market (ie those that smash your portfolio big time and take a long time for it to recover) can be "foreseen" by a major divergence (as he says 3 to 4 months (TS ITW)) b/w ADLine and the indices. Then it's a question of confirmation with what he calls his Momentum Index (200D AD average) that goes below 0, as well as the NHNL. The beauty of his system to assess the market's health is that we have out of sample examples since the publishing of his book, and some significant at that ! (2000/01, 2007/08 - huge krachs with clear divergences beforehand, but also 2011 or 2015 which stopped at max -20% and recovered rapidly). And they work !
So, with the ADLine, and your survey (+all the other indicators he uses in his weight of evidence) we should be able to avoid being crushed when the next big ones shows up. (that's been my main objective since I first discovered about SW). Kudos for you.
(ps: I have mentioned this forum and your survey on a French traders' forum where there is a thread dedicated to Stan Weinstein [and Lars Tvede], so you may get more interest coming your way)
Again, thank you for showing appreciation for my work and mentioning the Survey in the French forum.
As for your question about back-testing it, I would say that theoretically that is possible. Huge work, and I mean huge work would be required. But, there is one big problem that I find difficult to solve. And, that is the composition of the sample. Every three months, I am purifying the sample by updating it for the changes in indices (SP500, SP400, SP600 and NYA). In other words, some names go in and out of the sample, and the sample changes both in terms of the names and number of stocks in it. Now, if we try to go back in time to recreate the Survey, that issue would be too difficult to deal with and would require even more manpower.
As regards to the usefulness of the Survey, in my initial blog post (https://dg-swingtrading.blogspot.rs/2018/02/stan-weinsteins-us-stock-market-survey.html), I mentioned how it helped me spot the major weakness in the market in July 2015. The Survey was going down for weeks from elevated levels and two weeks before the August crash it went strongly below 50% while the indices were trading in a tight range still above 150 and 200 DMAs. That was a perfect time (and R/R opportunity as the range was so tight) not only to get out of the market but to short it heavily. So, we will have to trust SW that it is a good leading indicator and remember that it is only one of the indicators contributing to the weight of evidence.
Best and thanks!
Attached are the updated charts of the US Stock Market Survey Indicator, Individual Stages, SP500 Survey, SP400 Survey and SP600 Survey.
If you want to read my commentary, please go to https://dg-swingtrading.blogspot.rs/search/label/Market%20Breadth
To learn more about the indicator go to https://dg-swingtrading.blogspot.rs/2018/02/stan-weinsteins-us-stock-market-survey.html