US Stocks Breakouts & Breakdowns - SP500, NYSE, & Nasdaq Stock Charts - Printable Version +- Stage Analysis Forum - Trading & Investing using Stan Weinstein's Stocks Breakout method (https://www.stageanalysis.net/forum) +-- Forum: Main Board (https://www.stageanalysis.net/forum/Forum-Main-Board) +--- Forum: Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis - Stock Charts, Technical Analysis, Learn to Trade, Stocks, ETF, NYSE, Nasdaq (https://www.stageanalysis.net/forum/Forum-Stan-Weinstein-s-Stage-Analysis-Stock-Charts-Technical-Analysis-Learn-to-Trade-Stocks-ETF-NYSE-Nasdaq) +--- Thread: US Stocks Breakouts & Breakdowns - SP500, NYSE, & Nasdaq Stock Charts (/Thread-US-Stocks-Breakouts-Breakdowns-SP500-NYSE-Nasdaq-Stock-Charts) Pages:
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RE: US Stocks - Watchlist and Discussion (Premium) - JimStudent - 2015-09-01 (2015-08-31, 10:49 PM)isatrader Wrote: ...So personally I think the method performed beautifully with this recent breakdown, highlighting the increased risks in the US market well in advance in the weight of evidence, and via the multiple failed breakouts and majority of stocks moving into Stages 3 and 4, then finally the indexes themselves Thanks again for all your hard work. And I agree the method works perfectly, I am almost 100% in cash except for a very small speculative position in GDXJ, (I hope it is in the stage 1b accumulation phase but that remains to be seen) When I say I missed the August move, I have to admit I don't have one short position open. So hopefully some of us that have been mostly just reading will post some of what we are thinking. There is a saying, "As iron sharpens iron, So a man sharpens the countenance of his friend." Hopefully we can cause each other to sharpen our trading skills. RE: US Stocks - Watchlist and Discussion (Premium) - gbarbs - 2015-09-02 (2015-08-31, 06:09 PM)isatrader Wrote:(2015-08-31, 06:18 AM)JimStudent Wrote: A shout out and much thanks to gbarbs and shaunattwood for posting and helping us keep our eyes on the trend and what Stan would focus on. isa you mention the weight of evidence and the % of stocks in stage 3 and 4 being larger than 1 and 2. Can you point me to that? I would like to follow that for sure and think I overlooked it, or is it presented as something else? Personally I had not been following the method for some time but returned when I got access to my retirement funds to manage. Perhaps I was a little too anxious to put it somewhere and the only place i thought looked good was regional banks. That in itself should have been a clue as I did not see much strength anywhere else. Certainly would have paid to keep up with the blog. With that being the case, i lost about 5% of my account in part due to sell stops. I started focusing on short etfs to enter: REW, SKF, SMN, SSG, SIJ (attached charts) RE: US Stocks - Watchlist and Discussion (Premium) - JimStudent - 2015-09-02 (2015-08-31, 10:49 PM)isatrader Wrote: ...continued for the short watchlist Hi Isatrader, It looks like you are using Stockcharts. If you are using Stockcharts, what are the parameters you use for your short scan? Thanks, Jim (2015-09-02, 04:08 AM)gbarbs Wrote: isa you mention the weight of evidence and the % of stocks in stage 3 and 4 being larger than 1 and 2. Can you point me to that? I would like to follow that for sure and think I overlooked it, or is it presented as something else? gbarbs, In Stan's book, "Secrets for profiting in ...." on page 78 there is a footnote that answers your question. footnote - "Each week I calculate the percentage of stocks on the NYSE in Stages 1 and 2 - this is the total that is charted versus the DJI. A quick shortcut that produces and excellent "Gallup Poll" for all 1500- plus NYSE stocks, however is to simply do this exercise for the Standard and Poor's groups. This is just one of 50 technical indicators that make up my "Weight of the Evidence" in the Professional Tape Reader." Using Stan's gallup poll exercise it clear to see most of Standard and Poor's groups are in stage 3 or 4. (Also from Stan's footnote it is not hard to scan the 30 stocks in the Dow and see what is below the surface of the Dow - currently a quick look says 28 of the 30 stocks have broken the 30 week moving average.) I thinks we see the same thing with Isatrader's post about the number of stocks trading below their 150 and 200 day moving average. RE: US Stocks - Watchlist and Discussion (Premium) - isatrader - 2015-09-02 (2015-09-02, 04:08 AM)gbarbs Wrote: isa you mention the weight of evidence and the % of stocks in stage 3 and 4 being larger than 1 and 2. Can you point me to that? I would like to follow that for sure and think I overlooked it, or is it presented as something else? Jim nailed it in his reply above. The long and medium term Percentage of stocks above their 200 Day and 150 Day Moving Average charts are the first port of call for doing the gallop poll of the US market, and Stan has been quoted as saying that they are around 80% in line with his proprietary Stages survey. But obviously the market is much bigger these days, so I include the Nasdaq Percentage of stocks above their 200 Day and 150 Day Moving Average charts as well, and so those markets combined covers around 4500+ US stocks. So when the overall balance of those is below 50% and on bear confirmed signals on the P&F charts that make them up, it highlights the weakness under the surface that may not be visible in the indexes themselves at the time. These, as well as the slower moving Bullish Percent Indexes are the core tools for gauging risk in the market and producing the quick gallop poll that Stan mentions in the book. It may have only been a footnote to a chart. But I think it's the single most useful piece of information in the book. So I highlight these charts and various other market breadth charts in the Market Breadth Extra thread, and as I said we started to get initial sell signals appearing in early June in the moving average breadth charts and the cumulative advance decline charts here: http://stageanalysis.net/forum/showthread.php?tid=39&pid=9028#pid9028 and then the cumulative new highs - new lows also started to breakdown in early July and then we saw the NYSE Bullish percent Index moved to Bear Confirmed on July 26th with the Percentage of stocks above their 200 Day and 150 Day Moving Average charts showing further deterioration and both below the 40% level at that point. Hence, you could see from that quick snapshot that the majority of stocks were in Stage 3 and 4, as only 34% were trading above their 150 day (30 week) moving averages. I hope that helps. Market Breadth is an extensive subject on it own, but an integral part of the method. So, I think as long as you follow the Weight of Evidence approach that Stan suggests, then it will help you gauge risk much better. RE: US Stocks - Watchlist and Discussion (Premium) - isatrader - 2015-09-02 (2015-09-02, 05:21 AM)JimStudent Wrote: Hi Isatrader, It looks like you are using Stockcharts. If you are using Stockcharts, what are the parameters you use for your short scan? Not a particular scan for shorts, I just created a custom scan for each sector so that I could manulally go through the whole sector. For example for the Financial Sector in the S&P 500 the stockcharts code is: Code: [group is SP500] and [group is FinancialSector] And then I run the scan and created a new chartlist for S&P 500 financials, and then viewed the list as 10 Per Page format, so that I could quickly skim through them visually in a few minutes. To view the weekly charts with your Weinstein settings in 10 Per Page view you need to open a chart and set your Weinstein weekly chart settings and then click the Save As Default link in the ChartStyles under the chart. Then all new charts you open will have the Weinstein weekly chart by default. Attached is the settings I use for the weekly charts in stockcharts RE: US Stocks - Watchlist and Discussion (Premium) - isatrader - 2015-09-03 AMBA - potential to make an early Stage 4 breakdown RE: US Stocks - Watchlist and Discussion (Premium) - isatrader - 2015-09-03 GPRO - Approaching major support on increasing volume. If it doesn't hold, then it could have a Stage 4 breakdown RE: US Stocks - Watchlist and Discussion (Premium) - isatrader - 2015-09-03 IBB - In Stage 3 and struggling to regain it's 200 day MA. Potential for an early Stage 4A breakdown attempt if the weakness in the market continues. |