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Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis and Market Breadth - Technical Analysis - Printable Version

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RE: Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis - pcabc - 2016-04-23

Market breadth[/size]

US:
           
           

UK:
           

Precious metals:
           
   

Major US Stock Indexes Update - NYSE, Nasdaq, S&P 500 - isatrader - 2016-04-25

Here's the quick overview charts of the US Bullish Percent and Moving Average Breadth.

           

RE: Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis - pcabc - 2016-04-30

Breadth

US:
           
           

UK:
           


Precious metals:
           

Major US Stock Indexes Update - NYSE, Nasdaq, S&P 500 - isatrader - 2016-05-07

Here's the quick overview charts of the US Bullish Percent and Moving Average Breadth.

Note: the recent swing high has defined the top of the developing Stage 1 range, and now the market is pulling back as it digests the recent move. So, as we are in a potential developing Stage 1, the method suggests it's time to be looking for new emerging leadership groups, and adding them to your watchlist, so that you are positioned to react at the appropriate time.

           

RE: Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis - kero - 2016-05-07

isatrader Wrote:the recent swing high has defined the top of the developing Stage 1 range, and now the market is pulling back as it digests the recent move. So, as we are in a potential developing Stage 1, the method suggests it's time to be looking for new emerging leadership groups, and adding them to your watchlist, so that you are positioned to react at the appropriate time.

If I may give my opinion on this...

The US major indices (DJIA, SP500), are indeed quite bullish, giving a strong feeling that what could be seen as a stage 3, actually is becoming a stage 1, building foundations for a new bull trend.

But.

For myself, being invested on European market, I consider mostly european indices. Watching at several world indices gives the feeling that there is a strong divergence between those US indices and the rest of the world. France, Germany, Japan, among a lot of others, are in a bearer shape. Il also often have a look on world indices (particularly MSCI world, MSCI emerging).

Here MSCI World (ex USA):
   

On this level, we are clearly in a stage 4. Note that - for studying the indices - I prefer to use the weekly MA50 than the MA30, since it appears to me a better way to capture major trends.

Here MSCI Emerging.
   

Note that the indice built an extremely long trading range, lasting several years. The support having been broken, its strength lets think that it will not be that easy to come over again.

Now, I know that this website is more about US stocks (I am actually right about this ?), but Weinstein himself also points out the importance on watching at other international stocks to have an insight about future evolution. And this leads to conclude that the global move is quite clearly bear. The Russell 2000 also is. Nasdaq is in an intermediary situation.

As a sidenote: there was a similar divergence in october 2007. The SP500 was trying to go on a new high (aborting some days later), while the french CAC40 where building the second shoulder of a (really pretty) head-and-shoulders structure.

RE: Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis - pcabc - 2016-05-07

(2016-05-07, 04:52 PM)kero Wrote: Now, I know that this website is more about US stocks (I am actually right about this ?), but Weinstein himself also points out the importance on watching at other international stocks to have an insight about future evolution. And this leads to conclude that the global move is quite clearly bear. The Russell 2000 also is. Nasdaq is in an intermediary situation.

Others seem to track US stocks whereas I prefer UK stocks (as I can set stop losses). For myself I probably have access to UK stocks first followed by US and then European. However, it is more of a case of finding which I have access to that are performing the best.

RE: Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis - isatrader - 2016-05-07

(2016-05-07, 04:52 PM)kero Wrote: Now, I know that this website is more about US stocks (I am actually right about this ?), but Weinstein himself also points out the importance on watching at other international stocks to have an insight about future evolution. And this leads to conclude that the global move is quite clearly bear. The Russell 2000 also is. Nasdaq is in an intermediary situation.

The site focuses mostly on the US market, and also because I'm from the UK and around half the members are also in the UK I feature a lot of UK related stocks also.

You are correct in that a lot of the international markets are still in bear territory, especially the European markets which haven't recovered like the US. But the US markets are in early recovery from last years brief Stage 4 declines, with all the major US indexes back in very early Stage 1A imo, including the Nasdaq and Russell 2000. So if you were using the investor method with the US markets, then it is still in neutral territory currently. But the recovery back to Stage 1A territory, means that it's time to start building a watchlist of potential stocks that could lead the next Stage 2 advance, if the Stage 1 doesn't fail. As remember the indexes lag the individual stocks, and so when the market is in Stage 1, the new leaders will be breaking out or already in Stage 2. So focus on the stocks, not the indexes, and for this the "Weight of Evidence" from the market breadth is the key imo.

RE: Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis - pcabc - 2016-05-07

(2016-05-07, 01:34 PM)isatrader Wrote: Here's the quick overview charts of the US Bullish Percent and Moving Average Breadth.

Note: the recent swing high has defined the top of the developing Stage 1 range, and now the market is pulling back as it digests the recent move. So, as we are in a potential developing Stage 1, the method suggests it's time to be looking for new emerging leadership groups, and adding them to your watchlist, so that you are positioned to react at the appropriate time.

My view, from plotting US sector ETFs against the Wilshire 5000 or each other is that Utilities, Consumer Staples, Energy and Materials are the strongest sectors. I've calculated breadth charts based mainly on their consituents. Usual caveats, breadth calculated from a very small pool of stocks and I have made errors previously.

       
       

I've not seen these appear in my screener as prominently as the gold miners yet.

I note that SPOG.L (oil & gas producers) seems to be coming out stage 4 and forming a base perhaps. However, I'm nervous if crude has not done the same, at the moment CRUD.L is just below its MA150d but it is flattening. Too early to say yet?