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+--- Thread: Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis and Market Breadth - Technical Analysis (/Thread-Stan-Weinstein-s-Stage-Analysis-and-Market-Breadth-Technical-Analysis)
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RE: Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis - isatrader - 2016-03-21
(2016-03-21, 02:43 PM)shaunattwood Wrote: Dow did a similar rally in spring 2008, coming off a double bottom, just like now. Early indicators turned bullish, and the Dow moved back above its 150 day ma. Then all hell broke loose.
If you are doing comparisions then the Spring 2008 had a similar look to the Autumn 2015 bear rally imo, but the continuation at the start of 2016 failed to breakdown, and we've put in a second bottom since then, and also the weight of evidence breadth is looking much better than it did back then. So imo, all hell breaking loose is looking less likely as we are further along, but the market breadth will warn us if things start to look worse again, and so it could still happen. In the meantime we are in the early phase of Stage 1A imo, as the market is in the early stages of trying to form a base, and personally I wouldn't be surprised if it instead resolves to the upside after some volatile basing action in the next few months as that is how the long term breadth reads to me currently.
RE: Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis - pcabc - 2016-03-21
(2016-03-21, 07:56 PM)isatrader Wrote: ...
If you are doing comparisions then the Spring 2008 had a similar look to the Autumn 2015 bear rally imo, ....
Not the best plots to illustrate breadth I'm afraid, but here are some charts to the same scale (plotted one massive chart and cut out sections).
2008:
2016:
Myself, I'm undecided. More bullish than I was. Also note that although US and to a lesser extent the FTSE100 are showing positive signs others do not appear to be doing so. Still, some US sectors seem to be breaking out.
RE: Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis - pcabc - 2016-03-21
(2016-03-21, 09:02 PM)pcabc Wrote: Not the best plots to illustrate breadth I'm afraid, but here are some charts to the same scale (plotted one massive chart and cut out sections).
Should have added 2010 for comparison:
IMHO we are halfway between the 2008 and 2010 charts.
RE: Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis - shaunattwood - 2016-03-23
I see what you're saying, but either way a shakeout is overdue on MACD basis. Haven't seen an over bought like this since the last smash: http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/DJIA/charts
Still awaiting crossover sell signal though.
I'm adding to shorts.
RE: Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis - pcabc - 2016-03-24
(2016-03-23, 07:57 PM)shaunattwood Wrote: I see what you're saying, but either way a shakeout is overdue on MACD basis. Haven't seen an over bought like this since the last smash: http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/DJIA/charts
Still awaiting crossover sell signal though.
I'm adding to shorts.
Just opened up a position on XS7S.L (Stoxx 600 Banks) as its MACD is crossing over after previous discussions.
RE: Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis - shaunattwood - 2016-03-24
PCABC, good call, my biggest short is LLOY, two year top, downsloping 150 day ma (all pure stan) + great recent MACD crossover sell signal
Major US Stock Indexes Update - NYSE, Nasdaq, S&P 500, Mid Caps and Small Caps - isatrader - 2016-04-03
Attached is the updated monthly US equity index charts for a look at the bigger picture. Strong monthly bar closes for all five in March.
US Stock Indexes
S&P 1500 Cumulative Advance Decline Line - isatrader - 2016-04-03
The S&P 1500 stocks advance decline line has hit new highs this week