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Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis and Market Breadth - Technical Analysis - Printable Version

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Major US Stock Indexes Update - NYSE, Nasdaq, S&P 500 - isatrader - 2016-03-12

Attached is the weekly charts for the NYSE, Nasdaq and S&P 500 with the Bullish Percent and Moving Average breadth indicators on the same chart for quick overview of the current Stage and market breadth situation.

As we talked about in previous weeks the NYSE Bullish Percent Index, and the long and medium Moving Average breadth indicators are all in Bull Confirmed status now, and this week have all moved above their Oct/Nov 2015 swing highs, giving additional confirmation to the bull case.

This week has also seen a few of the major averages (NYSE, Dow and S&P 500) close back above their 200 day moving averages and the 30 week MA. So based on the current position of the breadth charts and the close back above the 30 week MA, I'm upgrading my US market position to Stage 1A. Which in Stage Analysis means: "Start of a base. Needs much more time."

So although this is a positive development imo, early Stage 1 (called Stage 1A) is often volatile, with the chance of another move lower to start forming the Stage 1 base range. So probabilities are increased of some choppy price action in the near term if it plays out like a normal Stage 1A. We will see...

           

NYSE Market Breadth Update - isatrader - 2016-03-12

Attached is the NYSE Bullish Percent Index and the NYSE long, medium and short term moving average breadth charts.

The NYSE Bullish Percent Index

       


NYSE Percentage of Stocks above their 200 Day, 150 Day and 50 Day Moving Averages P&F charts

           


NYSE Percentage of Stocks above their 200 Day, 150 Day and 50 Day Moving Averages line charts

           

NYSE Advance Decline Charts - isatrader - 2016-03-12

Attached is the updated Advance Decline Breadth Charts, including the cumulative AD line, momentum index, cumulative AD volume line, 10 Day AD oscillator and the McClellan Oscillator and Summation Index.

                       

NYSE New Highs New Lows Charts - isatrader - 2016-03-12

Attached is the NYSE New Highs / New Lows charts.

           

S&P 1500 Cumulative P&F Breakouts - Breakdowns charts - isatrader - 2016-03-13

Attached is the up to date S&P 1500 Cumulative P&F Breakouts - Breakdowns charts

Note: The highest level for the 20 day MA in the last two years.

                       

US Sector Breadth - isatrader - 2016-03-13

Below is the Percent of Stocks Above their 150 Day Moving Average visual diagram of the 9 sectors and the two major exchanges that make up the sectors that shows a snapshot of the overall health of the US market and the data table of the sectors which is ordered by overall health.

Note: the overall US sector average is at 49.29%, which is 12% higher than two weeks ago. So the breadth is continuing to improve in the US, and is now back to the neutral range in the middle of the scale. So basically there are roughly an even number of bullish and bearish stocks in the US market currently.

The Nasdaq is lagging a bit, and hasn't broken out yet like the NYSE breadth has, but this could be due the Health Care sector, which is still having a large number of breakdowns in the biotech stocks especially, and in which the Nasdaq index has a heavy weighting of health care stocks, compared to the NYSE.

Also a very positive sign is that the dog of the last few years, Energy. Which has consistently been at the bottom of the breadth range, has now moved up the chart for the first time, and actually higher than Health Care, and has also made it back above the key 30% level. So there could be some huge moves in the energy sector still to come, as those stocks have been beaten down for years.

       

Dow Jones Top Holdings Stages - isatrader - 2016-03-13

With the continuing improvement in the US market breadth I thought it would be interesting to look at some of the top holdings that make up the DOW Jones Industrial Average to see what Stages they are at, as remember the indexes themselves are just averages of the stocks within them, and so will lag showing any improvement or deterioration in the stocks themselves.

Below are the charts and their current Stages imo.

                                           

RE: Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis - shaunattwood - 2016-03-21

Dow did a similar rally in spring 2008, coming off a double bottom, just like now. Early indicators turned bullish, and the Dow moved back above its 150 day ma. Then all hell broke loose.