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Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis and Market Breadth - Technical Analysis - Printable Version

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Advance Decline Breadth Charts - isatrader - 2013-04-20

Attached is the updated Advance Decline Breadth Charts, including the cumulative AD line, momentum index, cumulative AD volume line, 10 Day AD oscillator, NYSE Volume Advancing / Volume Declining Ratio etc.

Notes:
  • Advance Decline Momentum Index - has broken down from its recent range
  • Cumulative Advance Decline Line - the detrended distance above the 200 day EMA chart shows a lower high and three month sideways range of which it's testing the lower part of the range.
  • Advance Decline 10 Day Oscillator - is quite weak still
  • Advance Decline MACD line - has put in another lower high after failing to get back above the breakdown level.
  • Advance Decline Volume - the alternative AD volume measures are showing the same signs as the straight advance decline data, except for the 10 and 30 day MA lines which got very close to a crossover on Friday before it reversed, and so is notably weaker than the straight AD data. This is also true of the AD volume MACD line which is close to crossing the zero line, which is it's major signal line.
So overall the weight of evidence appears to be getting more bearish each week at the moment from the various breadth charts I look at on here, so caution seems to be warranted, especially with multiple major markets forming potential Stage 3 tops.

Major Stock Indexes Update - isatrader - 2013-04-21

Attached is the updated major equity index charts and relative performance table.

[Image: attachment.php?aid=942]

US Stock Indexes

The S&P 500 has taken the top spot in the relative performance table for the first time since I've been following this over the last year or so. However, as you'll see on the chart it isn't necessarily a good thing as it appears to be losing momentum, as the 30 week WMA momentum line turned neutral and is close to crossing it's 10 week MA which I use for a signal line. And the detrended distance above the 30 week WMA also broke down below it's recent swing lows, as did the momentum index and so it's looks to be showing signs of forming a Stage 3 top, although it's the strongest of the major US charts I follow.

The Russell 2000 small caps index also looks to be forming a Stage 3 top with the price closing well below the 50 day MA which has started to rollover. However, it needs to close a week below the previous swing low of 894.24 to complete the Stage 3 top, although it would still be above a rising 30 week MA.

               

European Stock Indexes

The German Dax broke down into Stage 4A, but is very close to it's 200 day MA and so there's a chance of a bounce to retest the breakdown level. Relative performance versus the S&P 500 has been below the zero line for four weeks now and the cumulative volume closed below it's signal line this week as well. The measured swing target imo is down to the 7000 level.

The FTSE 100 is also close to completing a Stage 3 top, but looks relatively stronger than the Dax as it's still quite far above it's 200 day MA, and the 30 week MA is still rising.

       

Commodities Update and the Dollar Index - isatrader - 2013-04-21

Attached is the updated major commodities charts, Gold (GC), Copper (HG), West Texas Intermediate Crude (CL) which are all now in Stage 4 and the Dollar Index (DX) which is in Stage 2 consolidation phase imo.

US 10 & 30 Year Treasuries - isatrader - 2013-04-21

Attached is the updated US 10 & 30 Year Treasuries charts which are currently in Stage 1A imo.

US Industry Sectors - isatrader - 2013-04-21

Attached are the updated US Industry Sector Charts and relative performance table.

Health Care (XLV) retained the top spot this week followed by Consumer Staples (XLP) in second place. Utilities also closed the week at a new high and remain above the S&P 500 in the table. So the defensive sectors are strengthening still while money is leaving some of the previous leaders like Industrials (XLI) and Financials (XLF)

[Image: attachment.php?aid=951]

NYSE Percentage of Stocks above their 50 day MA - status change - isatrader - 2013-04-23

The short term NYSE Percentage of Stocks above their 50 day Moving Averages chart has put in a new double top buy signal, moving it back to Buy Confirmed status in the middle of the range. However, the line chart is still in a downtrend below it's own declining 50 day MA, and the relative performance versus the S&P 500 is still below it's 200 day MA as you can see on the chart, so it's not got much confirmation.

[Image: attachment.php?aid=971]

[Image: attachment.php?aid=972]

RE: Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis - Discussion Thread - goodtyneguy - 2013-04-28



Major Stock Indexes Update - isatrader - 2013-04-28

Attached is the updated major equity index charts and relative performance table.

[Image: attachment.php?aid=1011]

US Stock Indexes

               

European Stock Indexes