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RE: Stage Analysis Beginners Questions - isatrader - 2021-07-05
(2021-07-05, 12:51 AM)Tryst Wrote: Nice reply, thanks Isatrader. Indeed the % based fees is what is stinging me on H&L.
The lack of ISA is a bit of a downer, as it means I would have to do some book work for the taxman in my self assessment forms, but I guess if it needs to come to this then that is what it is.
Did you ever try Saxo?
Tryst
No, it was too expensive still from my calculations.
RE: Stage Analysis Beginners Questions - Lebo44 - 2021-07-05
What are your methods of analysis sector strength?
Mine are:
- SCTR rank (Stockwatch) - the higher the rank, the stronger the sector (weekly basis)
- SCTR rank weekly change (Stockwatch) - the higher the change in SCTR rank the stronger the sector. I do it on weekly basis and try to nail the sectors that are moving up on the SCTR rank list.
- industry charts (Stockwatch) - I try to estimate the strength of a sector by looking how its chart looks like, i.e. if 10MA > 20MA > 30MA, recent breakout, volume, RS, etc. I try to emulate Stan's ranks (2B, 2B+, etc)
- New Highs (Stockwatch, Finviz) - the sectors with the relative highest number of stock on 52-week highs are the strongest, weekly basis
Anything else you could recommend?
RE: Stage Analysis Beginners Questions - fabi470 - 2021-07-05
(2021-07-05, 10:18 AM)Lebo44 Wrote: What are your methods of analysis sector strength?
Mine are:
- SCTR rank (Stockwatch) - the higher the rank, the stronger the sector (weekly basis)
- SCTR rank weekly change (Stockwatch) - the higher the change in SCTR rank the stronger the sector. I do it on weekly basis and try to nail the sectors that are moving up on the SCTR rank list.
- industry charts (Stockwatch) - I try to estimate the strength of a sector by looking how its chart looks like, i.e. if 10MA > 20MA > 30MA, recent breakout, volume, RS, etc. I try to emulate Stan's ranks (2B, 2B+, etc)
- New Highs (Stockwatch, Finviz) - the sectors with the relative highest number of stock on 52-week highs are the strongest, weekly basis
Anything else you could recommend?
I really like your methods of finding the "best" sectors and will probably implement 1-2 ideas of yours into my screening process.
But i have 2 "problems"/questions with your approach: - (why) do you only focus on sectors? Because i think that the industry group is more important than the sector (nevertheless the sector in which the industry group is placed shouldnt be the worst one)
- you have >4 different methods to analyze the sector strength. I can imagine that you will get a lot of divergences / different results. So you dont really profit from that many methods, do you? E.g. there are about 11 sectors; with your method of combining all 4 techniques you will get different results, maybe 7 different sectors. So you did just eliminated about 4 sectors.
I hope you can understand what i mean. I would be happy about a feedback from you, and if you have these problems, how you handle them.
As i dont want to only "critize" other methods: i have not finished my final process of finding the best groups yet, but i guess it will look similar to this: which group is outperforming the S&P500 on a 3 month period? This is a crucial aspect, Then i will look at these outperformers and watch, which groups are gaining strength over a 1-week and 1-month period. In addition to that i may look what the specific sector looks like, how the 12-month performance looks like and if the group is in stage 1/ 2 (i use the minervini Trend template)
Maybe this helps you out a bit (i hope so!) and i would be very happy about a feedback as well!
RE: Stage Analysis Beginners Questions - Lebo44 - 2021-07-05
(2021-07-05, 10:59 AM)fabi470 Wrote: I really like your methods of finding the "best" sectors and will probably implement 1-2 ideas of yours into my screening process.
Hi Fabi, my fault. By "sectors" I meant industries
so I look at around 100 of different industries and compare them. I don't look at sectors (groups of industries) at all. Is that clearer now?In general I try to get a feel of which industries are strong and trending up or which ones have potential or started trending up only recently. I use this "feel" later on when scanning through charts. If I see a good looking chart then I decide if it should be put on watchlist based on the industry strength. Or I could scan all stocks from these best looking, strong industries and select the best of them.
RE: Stage Analysis Beginners Questions - fabi470 - 2021-07-05
(2021-07-05, 11:10 AM)Lebo44 Wrote:(2021-07-05, 10:59 AM)fabi470 Wrote: I really like your methods of finding the "best" sectors and will probably implement 1-2 ideas of yours into my screening process.
Hi Fabi, my fault. By "sectors" I meant industries
In general I try to get a feel of which industries are strong and trending up or which ones have potential or started trending up only recently. I use this "feel" later on when scanning through charts. If I see a good looking chart then I decide if it should be put on watchlist based on the industry strength. Or I could scan all stocks from these best looking, strong industries and select the best of them.
Okay, that makes sense!
So, as i already said, i like your approach, although i am not sure if there arent too many divergences while using at least 4 different "styles" to get to the best industry groups.
I just focus on the best industry groups, so all the other stocks wont be watched by me. I have built a screener in google sheets with all NYSE and Nasdaq stocks, where i can screen for the right industry group and few additional criteria (like is the stock in stage 2, performance over X days, distance from 52-week high and low,...)
RE: Stage Analysis Beginners Questions - Lebo44 - 2021-07-06
I just noticed this when studying High Tight Flags. It seems that Stan's trading method included buying high momentum stocks in a temporary consolidation phase.
It is funny because at the beginning I didn't see anything interesting in his chart and just focused on the entry point A instead on the whole pattern which is Minervini's VCP. Also higher lows at the late stage of this consolidation are visible.
RE: Stage Analysis Beginners Questions - fabi470 - 2021-07-09
(2021-07-04, 02:03 PM)isatrader Wrote:(2021-07-02, 02:19 PM)fabi470 Wrote: Hi David,
I hope you`re doing fine.
Currently i am working on Industry Group Relative Strength Table similar to yours (104 Dow Jones Sector Industry Groups sorted by Relative Strength - Stage Analysis).
In my opinion the most important time frames for defining the RS are the 1-week, 1-month, 3-months and the 1-year period. Do you agree (i know, everyone has a quite different view on such subjective topics)?
I am wondering how you calculate the RS of the industry groups in your Google Sheet Table (you name it "RS Score"). I guess, it is not the SCTR score from stockcharts.com, is it? If it is, how do you import the SCTR into Google Sheets? If it is NOT, do you mind to tell us, how you calculate the RS score?
I would really appreciate your answers, David!
Greetings from germany and a nice weekend!
Hi fabi470,
Yes, I focus on similar time periods, and am looking for groups that are rising up the rankings strongly that could become future leading groups. As I want to catch the moves early enough to get in at the early part of Stage 2 or even late in Stage 1 if the base structure is forming in a favourable way for lower risk entries.
The RS score in my sheets is the SCTR score from stockcharts. I simply copy and paste this into a google sheet each week, and then on a separate sheet calculate the change for the 1 week, 2 week, 4 week and 12 week change, plus the overall score, which is longer term as the SCTR is made up from multiple things as far back as 200 days. See stockcharts website for how it is calculated.
Hi David,
thank you for your quality response (as always). I really appreciate them.
I am working on my google sheets screener right now and i might have a problem: it looks like there is no historic data available in google finance for industry groups (sectors work fine). Do you have any clue how i could get (at least) the data from the past 3 months?
Otherwise: you said, that you update the SCTR score in your Sheet every weekend. That would be fine for me - but: where do you get the 1-,4- and 12-week data from? Is there any trick or is that a premium stockcharts.com feature only?
Would be happy about an answer from you!
RE: Stage Analysis Beginners Questions - isatrader - 2021-07-09
(2021-07-09, 02:52 PM)fabi470 Wrote: Hi David,
thank you for your quality response (as always). I really appreciate them.
I am working on my google sheets screener right now and i might have a problem: it looks like there is no historic data available in google finance for industry groups (sectors work fine). Do you have any clue how i could get (at least) the data from the past 3 months?
Otherwise: you said, that you update the SCTR score in your Sheet every weekend. That would be fine for me - but: where do you get the 1-,4- and 12-week data from? Is there any trick or is that a premium stockcharts.com feature only?
Would be happy about an answer from you!
I add the RS score in a separate sheet. So add a new column each week, and then in the main sheet reference the relevant cells and calculate the change between them