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+--- Thread: US Stocks Breakouts & Breakdowns - SP500, NYSE, & Nasdaq Stock Charts (/Thread-US-Stocks-Breakouts-Breakdowns-SP500-NYSE-Nasdaq-Stock-Charts)
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RE: Watchlist - Investor method - isatrader - 2013-05-14
(2013-05-14, 07:25 AM)Lplate Wrote: Healthcare US ETF XLV had a continuation breakout yesterday about $48, now $48.50, in line with the string of individual healthcare stocks isatrader identified on the S&P500 Daily Breakout lists. http://scharts.co/18HmzxL
The question is whether to be worried by the distance from the 30 week MA, which has been a bounce line. Weinstein I guess would not be worried, but should we be very patient and wait a few months for a retrace and then buy on the renewed breakout above $48?
I think if you are looking at it from an investment perspective then distance above the 10 and 30 week MAs is important to consider as it's had a very strong Stage 2 run since December 2011 with a few significant pullbacks to the 30 week MA. But since January it's been particularly strong and has accelerated away from it 30 week MA and so is in Stage 2B and I don't think suitable for an investor to consider until the next significant pullback towards the 30 week MA. A trader however, might be able to play the continuation move, but I think might have similar considerations about chasing it here.
I think looking at the technical rankings of the US ETFs on stockcharts.com it's clear that it's Biotech companies leading the Healthcare sector advance, as there are numerous Biotech ETFs in the top 50 and 2 in the top 10 ranked ETFs.
Attached is the Healthcare sector chart (XLV) and the top 50 US ETFs technical rankings list.
RE: Watchlist - Investor method - Locked in - 2013-05-14
As I like to keep a certain amount of mystery, I will say that I entered 3 of the following stocks over the last week or so. Just wondering which ones everyone would choose for the best candidates and why. The picks are mainly semiconductor or solar companies (which others have pointed out look pretty damn great right now). I also threw in a bank..Check them out-
1st, a chart of the semi sector and then the best looking charts of the sector (imo of course)-
Now for the solar and bank
Just wanted to know everyone's opinion on which of these look the best. I will post which ones I went with and why in my private journal thread later on. *(if anyone is even interested)
Happy picking!
Another good one for a long term investment standpoint would be DDD.(sorry if anyone else has already posted about it) I believe the 3D printing business has great potential for the future. If it closes above the 48 dollar mark this week, this continuation will prove to be powerful imo. Other than that, all of the other ingredients (Moving averages, volume, relative strength, and an absence of overhead resistance) are right to make this a winner in my mind. srry about the quality of chart..
RE: Watchlist - Investor method - isatrader - 2013-05-15
From a quick scan through the weekly and monthly charts I'd say the solar stocks as they are still quite early in Stage 2 even though they've already had excellent runs after fairly big stage 1 bases, and have the key ingredient that's missing from so many picks of large volume coming into them and the whole sector, and reminds me of the homebuilders a year or so ago. So SPWR, CSIQ, and FSLR on first glance I'd want to do further study on. And also your Bank pick of MCBC.
RE: Watchlist - Investor method - goodtyneguy - 2013-05-15
Locked in, here's my take on your stocks in alphabetical order by ticker symbol. Feel free to pull it a part..... but gently
AMD just below was one of Weinstein's picks in his recent FS interview. The annotations on my chart are from when I posted it on the stage analysis thread so you will see he recommended to wait for a PB. Obviously this did not happen so it's a one that got away.
The blue text on MCBC below should read: PB to the BO level but in my opinion it's better to see tight candles rather than wide ranging ones and no close below the BO level, however this is a low priced speculative stock.
The white text in MU below should read: Not an investor opportunity until it breaks the feb. high at 11.95 but rather a trader continuation buy if there is a suitable R2R ratio.
RE: Watchlist - Investor method - Locked in - 2013-05-15
I just now realized in reading your post Mr. Good how dumb I am for not including one of the three I bought...BSX was on my radar for a few months as I have been waiting with a gtc order and bought as it passed through 8.01 (I know Stan himself told us to wait until the stock closes above the BO point for investor method but I just couldn't help myself...) My stop is at 6.36 as per Weinstein investor method.
Here is today's chart-
RE: Watchlist - Investor method - isatrader - 2013-05-15
(2013-05-15, 02:17 AM)goodtyneguy Wrote: Locked in, here's my take on your stocks in alphabetical order by ticker symbol. Feel free to pull it a part..... but gently
Good work on marking up all the charts. One thing I've noticed that I wanted to highlight was that you often say not an investor pick until above the long term resistance, sometimes from many years before. While it's true it might still be in a longer term monthly* Stage 1 basing phase, the ideal investor entry point is the weekly Stage 2A breakout point, which is frequently still within a much longer term base. As remember, Weinstein says in the book that his investing time frame is up to 12 months, but that doesn't mean you can't end up holding a stock for longer than that.
So you don't need to wait until it's past all old resistance, just recent significant resistance should be considered and weighed up, as you'll miss a big part of the early Stage 2 move otherwise. i.e. in the SPWR example from above it's already had an excellent 230% move since it's Stage 2A breakout back in mid to late December. Volume came in during early January and it's been moving strongly higher ever since.
* Weinstein, doesn't talk about using monthly charts in the book, as his investing time frame is only 12 months. So this is something that I've added into my chart sets for longer term investing, as I can see that the Stages work just as well on the monthly charts, and hence is a way to find stocks to hold for a much longer term period i.e. 4 to 5 years - as the chart has 4 to 5 times as much data as the weekly chart.
RE: Watchlist - Investor method - goodtyneguy - 2013-05-15
(2013-05-15, 06:06 AM)Locked in Wrote: I just now realized in reading your post Mr. Good how dumb I am for not including one of the three I bought...BSX was on my radar for a few months as I have been waiting with a gtc order and bought as it passed through 8.01 (I know Stan himself told us to wait until the stock closes above the BO point for investor method but I just couldn't help myself...) My stop is at 6.36 as per Weinstein investor method.
I got into this one too early, I remember you being cautious when you placed it on your watch list and you were waiting for a break above the resistance level from two years ago. It obviously was the right decision. Below is my trade journal entry so we can all learn from my mistake.
Trade No. 12
NYSE: BSX
Sector: Health Care
Industry: Medical Equipment Supplies
Date of Entry: 2/4/13
Direction: Long
Method: Trader
Entry Price: 7.95
Exit Price: 7.26
Exit Date: 17/04/13 stopped out
Daily ATR(200): 0.18
Stop loss: 7.26
Risk in terms of ATR (200): 3.83
Target: open
Profit/Loss (points) -0.69
Important Considerations
Reason for entry
Everything lined up in Weinstein fashion, potential “A†trade. Price has not cleared the swing high at 7.96 but that was put in about 2 years ago therefore as Weinstein said it should be impotent i.e. not offer much resistance. Missed the BO day but price was still close enough to the BO level for a comfortable entry point.
The logic behind the stop loss location
Below the nearest swing low which is also below the 50dma. It's a quite big 3.83 ATR but I consider it worth it in view of the potential gain, there is no significant resistance above and this stock has been basing out for about 2.5 years.
Thoughts, feelings and any observations etc. whilst in the trade
Risk in the general market as shown in the breadth charts is a bit elevated at the moment but my feeling is if there is a sell off this stock is in a sector which will hold up.
EDIT: 17/04/13 Stopped out, WOTE (weight of the evidence) is turning negative.
Reflections on the trade
The resistant from two years ago proved to be potent enough to take the stock back down into and through the bottom of the base where I had my stop placed. My assertion that resistance price action within two years of the current price would be impotent was wrong. Weinstein's charts spanned two and a half years.
Lesson/s Learnt: Take into account any resistance closer than two and a half years from the current price.
TRADE CLOSED
(2013-05-15, 08:19 AM)isatrader Wrote:(2013-05-15, 02:17 AM)goodtyneguy Wrote: Locked in, here's my take on your stocks in alphabetical order by ticker symbol. Feel free to pull it a part..... but gently
Good work on marking up all the charts. One thing I've noticed that I wanted to highlight was that you often say not an investor pick until above the long term resistance, sometimes from many years before. While it's true it might still be in a longer term monthly* Stage 1 basing phase, the ideal investor entry point is the weekly Stage 2A breakout point, which is frequently still within a much longer term base. As remember, Weinstein says in the book that his investing time frame is up to 12 months, but that doesn't mean you can't end up holding a stock for longer than that.
So you don't need to wait until it's past all old resistance, just recent significant resistance should be considered and weighed up, as you'll miss a big part of the early Stage 2 move otherwise. i.e. in the SPWR example from above it's already had an excellent 230% move since it's Stage 2A breakout back in mid to late December. Volume came in during early January and it's been moving strongly higher ever since.
* Weinstein, doesn't talk about using monthly charts in the book, as his investing time frame is only 12 months. So this is something that I've added into my chart sets for longer term investing, as I can see that the Stages work just as well on the monthly charts, and hence is a way to find stocks to hold for a much longer term period i.e. 4 to 5 years - as the chart has 4 to 5 times as much data as the weekly chart.
Yes that makes sense, both from a increased profit potential and a smaller stop perspective. I guess I've just been applying the rules from the book without taking into account the "new" sub stages as far as the investor method is concerned. So I learnt something new today, thanks.
Locked in, I noticed on some of your weekly charts you had a 200 week moving average I guess that's probably because you keep switching back and forward between the weekly and daily charts. If you set up your template with two charts i.e. both a weekly and daily, give them equal space on your screen and link it will save you flicking back and forward. Your MA's will remain correct and trend lines and annotations etc will be duplicated on inferior time frames. Clicking on the "chain" icon on the first chart in the bottom left corner will link them, see images below for duplication of annotations on inferior time frames and how I split the charts on my screen.
RE: Watchlist - Investor method - goodtyneguy - 2013-05-16
GREK the greece ETF broke out today on strong volume into a 2A.