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Bullish Percent Indexes Reversals - isatrader - 2013-04-18
Two more of the major Bullish Percent Indexes have reversed to a column of Os. The S&P 500 Bullish Percent ($BPSPX) and the Nasdaq 100 Bullish Percent ($BPNDX) - which means all four of the major Bullish percents are now on defense.
NYSE Percentage of Stocks above their 150 day Moving Averages - isatrader - 2013-04-19
The faster 1 Percent by 1 Box Reversal NYSE Percentage of Stocks above their 150 Day Moving Averages chart continues in it's short term downtrend. The standard 2 Percent by 3 Box reversal chart also dropped another box and is now only 1 box from moving to "Bear Confirmed" status. However, for the time being it still remains on Bear Alert, but is now below the key 70% level for the first time this year. Research suggests that if it drops to 60% that we will usually see the 40% level reached before the 80% level is next reached.
S&P 500 Cumulative P&F Breakouts - Breakdowns - isatrader - 2013-04-20
I noted a few days back in the Daily Breakouts and Breakdowns in S&P 500 thread here: http://stageanalysis.net/forum/showthread.php?tid=17&pid=479#pid479 that the Cumulative line had broken below the 20 day MA that I'm using as a signal line and so had given an initial sell signal. This continued through to the end of the week with more stocks breaking down than were breaking out with only 10 breakouts to 59 breakdowns in the S&P 500 during the week.
The data I have for this measure only goes back to the beginning of 2012 and so there's only two similar periods to compare against for where it is currently. The first was in April 2012 and the second in late October 2012, and so as both preceded a breakdown within a number of weeks following those points, it seems only sensible to consider it a warning sign here, although it would be averted if the breakouts minus breakdowns reverses back up again to start making new highs once more.
Attached is the updated charts
McClellan Oscillator and Summation Index - isatrader - 2013-04-20
Attached is the updated McClellan Oscillator and Summation Index charts. Currently the McClellan Oscillator is below it's zero line, but the McClellan Summation Index continues to move lower, closing at the low of the week.
US Industry Sectors Breadth - isatrader - 2013-04-20
This week saw big moves in the majority of the sectors lower. Industrials being one of the notable breakdowns as it's been one of the top two for a long time. So a 12.14% drop moves it into fourth on the RS table rankings. Utilities was very slightly higher on the week and so as everything else broke down it's moved into the top spot for the first time since I've been doing these updates.
Basic Materials, Energy and Technology continued to show relative weakness and moved further down their scales, with Basic Materials nearing the lower zone and closing below it's November low.
So the majority of the sectors have now rolled over and are below declining 10 week MAs. The visual diagram shows the current state of the market quite well I think, especially if you compare back over the previous weeks, as it shows the participation is weakening. And the point and figure chart has had a number of double bottom breakdowns with six of the nine sectors on bear confirmed status now.
Below is the data table for the Percent of Stocks Above 150 Day Moving Average in each sector which I've ordered by relative strength, with the highest to the lowest percentage in each sector. Also attached is the visual diagram of the 9 sectors and the overall NYSE Percentage of Stocks above their 150 day Moving Averages, plus the 1% P&F chart and line chart of the nine sectors.
Moving Average Breadth Charts Update - isatrader - 2013-04-20
Attached is the NYSE long, medium and short term moving average breadth charts and the NYSE Bullish Percent Index.
As I highlighted earlier in the week there have been some major changes to be aware of in the NYSE Bullish Percent Index and the Moving Average Breadth charts, starting with the long term NYSE Bullish Percent Index, which reversed this week to a column of Os and hence moved to a defensive posture within the high risk zone at the top of the chart. The longer term NYSE Percentage of Stocks above their 200 day Moving Averages also moved lower this week to give a high pole warning on the 15th April, which imo moves it to Bear Alert status just above the key 70% level.
The medium term NYSE Percentage of Stocks above their 150 day Moving Averages chart which has been Bear Alert since late February also moved lower and is only 1% from making a double bottom breakdown which would move it to Bear Confirmed status.
The short term NYSE Percentage of Stocks above their 50 day Moving Averages chart has continued in it's downtrend and is now down to 48.29% in a column of Xs, which puts it in Bear Correction status imo after rebounding on Friday. However, it rarely makes a major low at this level and instead usually drops well below the 30% level before a short term bottom is put in, so I expect further downside from here, with bounces along the way.
The three other short term Percentage of Stocks above their 50 day Moving Averages charts (S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 and Dow 30) all ended the week on Bear Confirmed status as you can see in the table below, and so we are seeing much more negative picture from the moving average breadth charts develop, which can also be seen in the line charts for those who don't understand point and figure. With the relative performance of the NYSE Percentage of Stocks above their 150 day Moving Averages line chart versus the S&P 500 closing the week below it's 52 week MA - which is the line in the sand between bullish and bearish relative strength, and so a sell signal from that particular measure also.
Volatility Breadth Charts - isatrader - 2013-04-20
Attached is the updated volatility breadth charts which continued higher again, highlighting the decreasing participation in the market. Most are now back to levels not seen since November 2012.
New Highs New Lows - isatrader - 2013-04-20
Attached is the New Highs / New Lows charts which had a quite negative week dropping below the zero line until Friday's recovery. However, the Total US 5 day total chart ended the week slightly in negative territory for the first time since November, and so is flashing a warning sign at least.
On the cumulative chart, the cumulative line has flattened and the 50 day MA of New Highs minus New Lows continued lower, and even the 200 day MA of the New Highs minus New Lows fattened out a bit. And so the New Highs New Lows charts are in neutral territory currently on Bear Alert imo.