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+--- Thread: Stage Analysis Beginners Questions (/Thread-Stage-Analysis-Beginners-Questions)
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RE: Beginners Questions - DisinfectedDuck - 2013-11-27
Hey guys,
I'm new here, and this is my first post. I think I'll start a trading journal to share my thoughts, but since I am a beginner this looks like the right place to start.
I see myself as much more of an investor than a trader. I also just recently discovered Weinstein's book, and I was very impressed by his logic & disciplined system. However, I am unsure of my ability to read charts correctly and I would appreciate your insights.
I just sold 2 stocks that I realized were in stage 4 or late 3, so I'm looking for new investment options. Here are my candidates:
GALE - Looks like a stage 2 breakout a few weeks ago with impressive volume. Also, there is no major resistance nearby, and this is a strong sector. It also looks like this week we saw a pullback, so this might actually be the ideal time for an investor to enter this stock. I'd love to get some opinions here.
MRO - Looks like there was a possible stage 2 breakout a few weeks ago, with nice volume increase. Previous resistance around the 37.65 line, so if the price crosses above that, it might be a buy signal.
REXI - price moved above the 30 SMA, with a nice volume increase. Resistance at 9.71, so again, closing above that line might indicate a buy signal.
I'd love to hear your take on this, guys.
RE: Beginners Questions - BoyPlunger - 2013-11-27
RE: Beginners Questions - BoyPlunger - 2013-11-27
I think it'll be safer to wait for GALE to pull back to the MA, the chart is screaming for a pullback imo
RE: Beginners Questions - isatrader - 2013-11-27
(2013-11-27, 12:43 PM)DisinfectedDuck Wrote: GALE - Looks like a stage 2 breakout a few weeks ago with impressive volume. Also, there is no major resistance nearby, and this is a strong sector. It also looks like this week we saw a pullback, so this might actually be the ideal time for an investor to enter this stock. I'd love to get some opinions here.
anupam384 brought up GALE in the investor watchlist thread on the 15th Nov http://stageanalysis.net/forum/showthread.php?tid=15&pid=2208#pid2208 and I noted that it needed to close above the $3 level to become a Stage 2 continuation. Which it has and has moved over 30% since then, so the problem now is that it's a long way above the continuation entry point and stop loss position, so there's additional risk that needs to be considered.
However, we are coming up to month end and a look at the monthly chart shows a potential monthly Stage 2A breakout if it can close the month above the $3 level, and monthly volume looks like it will be greater than the 2x average that we look for and relative performance is also above the zero line. So it does look to have very good potential for a decent Stage 2 run. But the entry is tricky.
RE: Beginners Questions - BoyPlunger - 2013-11-28
high vol breakouts in CRDS and QTWW. CRDS is small m cap but they broke above trendline support at 1.20. I sat on my hands, but today I noticed they're up 23%. They announced a bunch of patent troll lawsuits, which is a very hot space. See VRNG and VirnetX, I know some hedge funds who made alot on VRNG. Also got a kicker from erich spangenberg's recent win against newegg.
RE: Beginners Questions - Lplate - 2013-12-07
(2013-11-26, 02:59 PM)theory6453 Wrote:May I add that isatrader's updates on sectors and indices is one of the many highlights of this excellent website.(2013-11-26, 03:33 AM)BoyPlunger Wrote: has anyone looked at the mutual fund switching method explained by Stan in chapter 9?
I can't really see a tangible benefit over trading stocks but I'd assume this method is even easier now with ETF's instead of no load mutual funds?
I have been using the mutual fund switching method on my 401k account since August and so far I think it works great. I have my funds in an index fund that is tracking the Russell Small Cap 2000 (up 35% this year). My current stop is at 1000 and if it hits that I will move to money market account (or possibly S&P index fund if that is still rising).
The only reason I can think to use mutual fund switching in your taxable account over individual stocks would be if you'd rather have exposure to an entire sector... otherwise stocks are better IMO.
The little swap of thoughts above raises a good set of questions about forest, wood and trees, and, if I find myself dealing in and out too much, I find it good to think them through.
As an extra point, If, as Stan said in his Dec 2013 interview, it is hard to cope with the rapid sector rotation and the need to be stock specific, you have also to think: if I try to keep up with fast rotation, (leaving aside the use of short ETFs) will I manage with dealing in stocks to net beat a broad index, let alone the best sectors.
Day Trading Time Zones - theory6453 - 2013-12-26
This is a really great article on day trading time zones that I find to be very helpful when moving in and out of positions... (not that I am day trading of course but it is definitely good to know when the reversal time zones are throughout the day)...
http://tradingsim.com/blog/day-trading-time-zones/
EOY Performance Calculations - theory6453 - 2013-12-27
Hey all. This question is more portfolio-related rather than SA-related, but I wanted to get some feedback on how everyone calculates their portfolio performance since we are closing in on the end of the year.
The way I am calculating it currently for my retail portfolio is as follows:
EOY % Gain/Loss = Change in Portfolio Value / (Beginning of Year Portfolio Balance + Debits) = XX.X%
Change in Portfolio Value = End of Year Portfolio Balance - Beginning of Year Portfolio Balance - Debits + Credits
Debits = Sum of Total Deposits made during the Year
Credits = Sum of Account Withdrawals = Sum of Margin Interest Charged + Sum of Commissions Fees
There is a "real" performance versus "true" performance factor to be taken into account. For example, the method above shows the "true" performance of my portfolio since I am backing out Broker Commissions Fees and Margin Interest. If I were to calculate the "real" performance of my portfolio, I would not back those out as they are the "costs of doing business" so to speak and those fees would be included in my portfolio's "real" performance and my performance would lower. Any dividends received are already baked in.
This is how my 401K calculates it (approximately) when I login to the Fidelity website but wondering if maybe there is a better way to do it or if anyone has any feedback on my approach.
Danke.