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RE: Stage Analysis Beginners Questions - isatrader - 2020-08-27
(2020-08-27, 01:28 PM)ianbate222 Wrote: Hi Isa,
I am touching base about RY which you commented on twitter in a reply to my post to you.
You noted a week back it is early stage 1 but I was wondering if it could break above the 2020 high of 80.74 and still not show a buy trigger based on stage analysis unless price breaks above the RS line and big volume comes in?
I also want to point out that the site nextbigtrade screener shows RY is in stage 2 for 4 weeks now so clearly that is not correct so I am following your methodology to determine entries which is why RY is still not a buy.
Thanks for your thoughts,
Ian
It has moved into Stage 2A, with last weeks close the confirming week above the Stage 1 pivot high. The nextbigtrade screener uses an automated approach to defining the stages. So is often a bit out in terms of the Stages and the exact entry points, but is a good rough approximation. But you have to check the charts visually yourself to refine the results, as often it will highlight stocks that would be considered still in Stage 1 as in Stage 2. But can be a good starting point none the less.
On RY the Stage 1 base was very short, and although it's broken out into Stage 2, it still remains below near term resistance. Plus volume on the breakout and following has been well below average, and the RS versus the S&P 500 is improving, but is still below a declining "zero line". So it looks like the breakout has been driven by the move in the market and not some thing in the stock itself, as you would see more volume coming in.
So although it's in early Stage 2A, it remains a lower quality candidate in terms of the methods requirements. As remember the opportunity costs that Stan talks about in the book.
Try not to focus on stocks that you want to buy, but instead on stocks that are giving you reasons to buy them, by meeting the various requirements of the method including being in a strong group, which is often missed out by most beginners. But is a crucial part of the method for finding the strongest stocks at the ideal entry points.
Note: A quick tip if you are using stockcharts is to look at the SCTR rating of the stock, which is their way o9f tracking relative strength versus the market. If it's not a 85 or greater, then it's likely not strong enough to consider.
RE: Stage Analysis Beginners Questions - ianbate222 - 2020-08-27
(2020-08-27, 02:13 PM)isatrader Wrote:(2020-08-27, 01:28 PM)ianbate222 Wrote: Hi Isa,
I am touching base about RY which you commented on twitter in a reply to my post to you.
You noted a week back it is early stage 1 but I was wondering if it could break above the 2020 high of 80.74 and still not show a buy trigger based on stage analysis unless price breaks above the RS line and big volume comes in?
I also want to point out that the site nextbigtrade screener shows RY is in stage 2 for 4 weeks now so clearly that is not correct so I am following your methodology to determine entries which is why RY is still not a buy.
Thanks for your thoughts,
Ian
It has moved into Stage 2A, with last weeks close the confirming week above the Stage 1 pivot high. The nextbigtrade screener uses an automated approach to defining the stages. So is often a bit out in terms of the Stages and the exact entry points, but is a good rough approximation. But you have to check the charts visually yourself to refine the results, as often it will highlight stocks that would be considered still in Stage 1 as in Stage 2. But can be a good starting point none the less.
On RY the Stage 1 base was very short, and although it's broken out into Stage 2, it still remains below near term resistance. Plus volume on the breakout and following has been well below average, and the RS versus the S&P 500 is improving, but is still below a declining "zero line". So it looks like the breakout has been driven by the move in the market and not some thing in the stock itself, as you would see more volume coming in.
So although it's in early Stage 2A, it remains a lower quality candidate in terms of the methods requirements. As remember the opportunity costs that Stan talks about in the book.
Try not to focus on stocks that you want to buy, but instead on stocks that are giving you reasons to buy them, by meeting the various requirements of the method including being in a strong group, which is often missed out by most beginners. But is a crucial part of the method for finding the strongest stocks at the ideal entry points.
Note: A quick tip if you are using stockcharts is to look at the SCTR rating of the stock, which is their way o9f tracking relative strength versus the market. If it's not a 85 or greater, then it's likely not strong enough to consider.
Thank you Isa for explaining things and the sctr tip. Very helpful.
I assume you will let everyone know when it is time to enter miners again as I notice your watchlist has not included any for a while now.
Ian
RE: Stage Analysis Beginners Questions - komputeridiat - 2020-08-28
I'm hoping to get some feed back on which ones here would be best to order from the below for continuation buys.
I'm listing the status in RS, Cap, Company Age, description
MDB 1.74, 13.4B, 13Yrs - Consolidation shows a nice pattern, but I'm also seeing that it's losing steam. Is is a long rest before rocketing off or is it done is the bigger question. The RS is definitely not putting it on the best form. The solid pattern is all that it's got going for it.
RPAY 1.75, 2.03B, 14 Yrs - A messier consolidation pattern and it's also losing steam apparently. Being a small cap is the only thing I think it's got going for it.
OKTA 2.04, 27.56B, 11 Yrs - Consolidation shows a nice pattern and it's also losing steam. RS is not that great but better than the previous two.
SQ 6.36, 69.36B, 11Yrs - Very nice RS, but I may have missed out on it. The trend is still going higher and there seems to be a semi consolidation. I'd be happier, if there was a better consolidation pattern.
TSM 2.28, 376.83B, 33Yrs - Somewhat good RS with a solid consolidation pattern. I feel that this may be the safest choice given it's background, but I believe losing a big chunk of that growth a month ago is the biggest risk weighing against me. The fact that it's a large cap and a much older company is off putting.
TTWO 1.43, 19.89B, 27Yrs - Solid pattern is all that it's got going for it and missing that initial chunk of growth doesn't help. The fact that it's a small-mid cap for a 27 year old company is not bolstering its profile.
BILI 4.15, 15.71B, 11Yrs - High RS with slightly downward consolidation with a convincing stage 2 trend. It's my pick for this bunch, but the only downside is that it's a Chinese company with some geopolitical background luring ominously.
ENPH 4.85, 9.25B, 14Yrs - High RS, small cap, young company that is growing into a market that is more accepting of its profile. Downside is that I may not be buying into a consolidation because it's still trending up. Buying into these puts me at a risk of trapped into an actual consolidation.
FUV 9.74, 0.207B, 13Yrs - Very high RS, mini cap, somewhat young company with a very stretched consolidation pattern down trending. Seems very risky to buy into a down trending continuation buy.
NIU 1.52, 1.52B, 6Yrs - Very young company with a small cap at a very low RS. The continuation pattern is also awful. If it was solid enough with a near 2 RS, I may have considered it over BILI.
What do you guys think? Do you I have put in a wrong order?
RE: Stage Analysis Beginners Questions - ianbate222 - 2020-08-29
Hi Isa,
I was wondering whether your indicators for market health picked up a warning sign prior to the start of the market crash in March?
It would be good to know because if your market health indicators are not flashing any warning signs now it means all the market top calls being made by many are of no concern.
Best,
Ian
RE: Stage Analysis Beginners Questions - isatrader - 2020-08-29
(2020-08-29, 12:16 PM)ianbate222 Wrote: Hi Isa,
I was wondering whether your indicators for market health picked up a warning sign prior to the start of the market crash in March?
It would be good to know because if your market health indicators are not flashing any warning signs now it means all the market top calls being made by many are of no concern.
Best,
Ian
Yes, the was various warning signs that the market breadth picked up on, which I did a video on in early February here: https://www.stageanalysis.net/blog/18540/us-market-breadth-short-term-stock-market-top-warning-signs-appearing-in-indicators
I haven't done a full run down of the current market breadth yet, but there are certainly some warning signs appearing in some indicators I watch and my short term portfolio, which is why I've gone to cash in my short term trading account. i.e selling into strength to lock in profits. But remain 75% invested in my investing account, as that is handled differently. i.e I'm happier to sit through pullbacks in the market in that account than in the short term account which is much more actively traded.
RE: Stage Analysis Beginners Questions - ianbate222 - 2020-08-29
(2020-08-29, 04:51 PM)isatrader Wrote:Just watched it- most impressive.(2020-08-29, 12:16 PM)ianbate222 Wrote: Hi Isa,
I was wondering whether your indicators for market health picked up a warning sign prior to the start of the market crash in March?
It would be good to know because if your market health indicators are not flashing any warning signs now it means all the market top calls being made by many are of no concern.
Best,
Ian
Yes, the was various warning signs that the market breadth picked up on, which I did a video on in early February here: https://www.stageanalysis.net/blog/18540/us-market-breadth-short-term-stock-market-top-warning-signs-appearing-in-indicators
I haven't done a full run down of the current market breadth yet, but there are certainly some warning signs appearing in some indicators I watch and my short term portfolio, which is why I've gone to cash in my short term trading account. i.e selling into strength to lock in profits. But remain 75% invested in my investing account, as that is handled differently. i.e I'm happier to sit through pullbacks in the market in that account than in the short term account which is much more actively traded.
I hope you will have the chance to do a similar video again when you find more warning signs. I would not be surprised if we pulled back short term and hope to see a pullback soon so the market can cool off.
When you say you have a long term trading account is that to hold stocks for a few years or longer?
RE: Stage Analysis Beginners Questions - isatrader - 2020-08-29
(2020-08-29, 07:05 PM)ianbate222 Wrote: Just watched it- most impressive.
I hope you will have the chance to do a similar video again when you find more warning signs. I would not be surprised if we pulled back short term and hope to see a pullback soon so the market can cool off.
When you say you have a long term trading account is that to hold stocks for a few years or longer?
Thanks. The longer term account is a pension account, so trades are aimed to be held for longer, but are still cut early if they don't act in the right way. But if they do act right, then they could be held for months or even years. But it's usually around 6 months or so on average.
RE: Stage Analysis Beginners Questions - ianbate222 - 2020-08-30
Hi Isa do you mind quick takes on well.to and abt.to both on tsx with very strong sctr scores. Well.to has solid fundamentals and is an online provider of healthcare but extended from 10 may by about 35% so guessing a buy if it pulls back. Abt.to is in the software space close to a rising 10ma so was thinking a buy above all time high of 16.81.
I appreciate your thoughts,
Ian
P.S still watching your lessons and slowly getting the hang of it but realize your eye can very quickly pick through charts worth looking at and those worth dismissing based on your experience.