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RE: Stage Analysis Beginners Questions - malaguti - 2020-06-13
I came across a series of youtube videos focusing on trading. if you search financial wisdom you'll see the selection of animated videos.
they are high level, however not too superficial
this is the one on Weinstein's stage analysis
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JbKiiLo1s2o
It has the core concepts, whereas the book clearly holds the detail but its a good 15 minute introduction into the method i thought
RE: Stage Analysis Beginners Questions-CRON - marry123 - 2020-06-13
(2020-06-11, 09:42 PM)isatrader Wrote:(2020-06-11, 08:38 PM)marry123 Wrote: Thanks Isa. Could you please clarify the part about buying high and selling higher as in Weinstein's book he has examples of buying stocks that have had large declines after they break from proper bases (eg page 33 Bethlehem Steel which fell from 22 to around 5 and was then a buy at just over 9 based on it breaking above its resistance of its stage 1 base). So would a break above 9 not be a proper buy point for CRON breaking out of the stage 1 base? CRON actually looks very similar to Bethlehem steel unless I am mistaken (with similar drops from around 22).
Hi marry, it's on page 1 of the book.
As for CRON if you are comparing to the Bethlehem Steel example, then it's only just entered the left hand side of the shaded area in the example, and remember they are weekly charts. So the shaded area on the chart showed approximately an additional four months of basing in Stage 1 from this point before it broke out, and hence the reason why it needs much more time to form the Stage 1 base. As the base hasn't formed yet. It's literary only just starting to form. and when you've had large declines over a long period the bases tend to need longer as well. So if it follows the Bethlehem Steel pattern then a future breakout above 9 might be the breakout level. However today's swing high may be the start of a lower range, and so the high of that, which is 8.13 would become the top of the Stage 1 range.
Attached is a rough example of what would need to happen to roughly mimic the Bethlehem Steel chart in the book.
Thanks, Isa. As always, I very much appreciate your keen eye and experience!
RE: Stage Analysis Beginners Questions - Stockytrader - 2020-06-14
Hi Guys,
Is there anyway way to find long term stage 1 bases? Like using a particular market scan for example? All help much appreciated
RE: Stage Analysis Beginners Questions - isatrader - 2020-06-16
(2020-06-14, 05:12 PM)Stockytrader Wrote: Hi Guys,
Is there anyway way to find long term stage 1 bases? Like using a particular market scan for example? All help much appreciated
There's not a particular scan that I have that looks for long term Stage 1 bases. But you could make something by looking for stocks that haven't yet broken above a flat price channel / Donchian channel. So you'd need to use a high setting of say 52 weeks / 252 days or more of the price channel not rising.
RE: Stage Analysis Beginners Questions - Stockytrader - 2020-06-16
(2020-06-16, 01:30 PM)isatrader Wrote:(2020-06-14, 05:12 PM)Stockytrader Wrote: Hi Guys,
Is there anyway way to find long term stage 1 bases? Like using a particular market scan for example? All help much appreciated
There's not a particular scan that I have that looks for long term Stage 1 bases. But you could make something by looking for stocks that haven't yet broken above a flat price channel / Donchian channel. So you'd need to use a high setting of say 52 weeks / 252 days or more of the price channel not rising.
Ah, that would work, excellent idea isa!
RE: Stage Analysis Beginners Questions - malaguti - 2020-06-16
(2020-06-16, 02:02 PM)Stockytrader Wrote:i find that the weekly macd crossing the zero line, which i've used as a filter to improve the results of tests, is a really good indication of either just getting into stage two, or at the later stages of a stage 1.(2020-06-16, 01:30 PM)isatrader Wrote:(2020-06-14, 05:12 PM)Stockytrader Wrote: Hi Guys,
Is there anyway way to find long term stage 1 bases? Like using a particular market scan for example? All help much appreciated
There's not a particular scan that I have that looks for long term Stage 1 bases. But you could make something by looking for stocks that haven't yet broken above a flat price channel / Donchian channel. So you'd need to use a high setting of say 52 weeks / 252 days or more of the price channel not rising.
Ah, that would work, excellent idea isa!
Additionally, the 10 week momentum (also called ROC "rate of change" indicator) is another good indicator for stage 1 just getting to a stage 2. The 10 week momentum, crossing zero, then the first pullback is your stage 2
I'd also concur with the donchian, the only thing i'd say is that the 52 week is possibly too late. I'd look at 20 week. put the donchian on your chart and its sometimes spot on, sometimes a little early, but will give you a list that are just/almost breakout out
these are all predominantly good for late stage 1s
let us know how you get on
RE: Stage Analysis Beginners Questions-QTRH.TO - marry123 - 2020-06-17
Hi Isa,
I was hoping you could comment on proper entry point long for QTRH.TO.
I am confused as to what resistance level it would need to break out over (it seems to have been basing for about 3 years now if not longer and 30 SMA is rising on the weekly) for proper entry into stage 2 breakout phase.
Thank you.
RE: Stage Analysis Beginners Questions-QTRH.TO - malaguti - 2020-06-17
(2020-06-17, 02:57 PM)marry123 Wrote: Hi Isa,
I was hoping you could comment on proper entry point long for QTRH.TO.
I am confused as to what resistance level it would need to break out over (it seems to have been basing for about 3 years now if not longer and 30 SMA is rising on the weekly) for proper entry into stage 2 breakout phase.
Thank you.
It seems to me as though you had the initial stage 2a entry at where i've drawn the red line
this was confirmed with a cross of the blue line
price action has recently moved into stage 3 and now back into a stage 2 continuation pattern at the green line
horrible price action, especially historically..you really want to be careful of its volatility
i normally shy away from price action that historically has not really conformed the stage analysis principle. ie the 30week MA seems to hold no weight in terms of support which you tend to expect. with prices seemingly brush aside the ma with very large swings into stage 1 and stage 3
thats my take on this one