Stage Analysis Forum - Trading & Investing using Stan Weinstein's Stocks Breakout method
US Stocks Breakouts & Breakdowns - SP500, NYSE, & Nasdaq Stock Charts - Printable Version

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RE: Watchlist - Traders method - goodtyneguy - 2013-04-21

(2013-04-20, 06:08 AM)Locked in Wrote: To be honest, I have been questioning my relative strength (as it is not mansfield) and I decided today I need to do a little more research and try to add my own code to prorealtime...anyway, with my current settings, it is heading lower vs. spy.

You will find isa's instructions with images on how to set up PRT with mansfield RSI in post #821
.

RE: Watchlist - Traders method - isatrader - 2013-04-22

YUM Brands (YUM) looks vulnerable ahead of it's earnings tomorrow. It is in a large one year Stage 3 range, below it's various moving averages. Relative performance versus the S&P 500 is the lowest it's been since 2011 and the cumulative volume shows that money has been leaving YUM with a very weak peak compared to the price action during March's sharp rally.

RE: Watchlist - Traders method - isatrader - 2013-04-22

US Bancorp (USB) came to my attention when I was talking to Locked In about JPM the other day and looked at the relative performance of the various financial stocks. It came out as one of the worst on the relative performance table and I put it as being in Stage 3B/4A depending on what trendline you choose to use. I like to use weekly closing prices personally and so it closed right on that last Friday and is very slightly below it today.

There is some near term support from the previous lows around the 31 zone, but the relative performance versus the S&P 500 is very weak and cumulative volume broke below it's signal line last week to go onto a sell signal, and the 30 week MA is turning down. So it looks like it could breakdown in Stage 4A and the sector started to come off last week for the first time after leading the relative performance table for many months, and so I thought one for the watchlist. Attached is my charts.

RE: Watchlist - Traders method - Locked in - 2013-04-22

Quote:US Bancorp (USB) came to my attention when I was talking to Locked In about JPM the other day and looked at the relative performance of the various financial stocks. It came out as one of the worst on the relative performance table and I put it as being in Stage 3B/4A depending on what trendline you choose to use. I like to use weekly closing prices personally and so it closed right on that last Friday and is very slightly below it today.

There is some near term support from the previous lows around the 31 zone, but the relative performance versus the S&P 500 is very weak and cumulative volume broke below it's signal line last week to go onto a sell signal, and the 30 week MA is turning down. So it looks like it could breakdown in Stage 4A and the sector started to come off last week for the first time after leading the relative performance table for many months, and so I thought one for the watchlist. Attached is my charts.

Looks like you are right with it being weaker at the moment. My question is how much stock do you put into the head and shoulders pattern? (comparing it to RS that is) Just curious as to what your opinion is on the matter. He says in the book that it is especially strong. But makes no real indication on what he would choose between a stock with a stronger pattern or one with a stronger RS indication.

As for the financial sector, I first got interested while looking at your breadth thread and saw it looking like a weaker and weaker chart. I did what you suggested and analyzed many of the stocks within and put a couple of different relative strengths on there..it was good to break it down like that. thx. The sector on the whole looks really good to me because the RS has just recently crossed the zero line which Weinstein points out is especially strong.

The only reason I worry about stocks like JPM is their involvement with the FED so I never know what to do.

I will keep on it but thanks for the direction.

RE: Watchlist - Traders method - isatrader - 2013-04-22

(2013-04-22, 06:56 PM)Locked in Wrote: Looks like you are right with it being weaker at the moment. My question is how much stock do you put into the head and shoulders pattern? (comparing it to RS that is) Just curious as to what your opinion is on the matter. He says in the book that it is especially strong. But makes no real indication on what he would choose between a stock with a stronger pattern or one with a stronger RS indication.

I think the relative strength is more important personally as it's one of the key components of the method, whereas a head and shoulders pattern is simply a nice additional technical signal that gives extra weight to the argument as the stock has made a lower high. For example if a stock has good relative strength, but is forming a head and shoulders pattern, then the following the methods rules you wouldn't want to go short it, as you don't short strong stocks. I think however, it would affect the rating as stocks with a good technical pattern get the additional rating of a + or a - symbol. i.e. Stage 1B+ could be used imo, if a stock was close to breaking out into early Stage 2A, but was also showing an especially good technical pattern, such as an inverse head and shoulders pattern.

RE: Watchlist - Traders method - goodtyneguy - 2013-04-22

Keep an eye on Dr copper, I've posted up the weekly chart to remind peeps (isatrader has posted it before but not on the watch list) of the huge H&S pattern and also to show the target for the measured move. Arguably it's in a stage 4A and you will see the measured move coincides closely with the December 2008 low. I think it would be healthy to see a bit of consolidation around here or a bounce to provide a swing high for a place to put a stop loss order, or better still a pull back to the 4A break down level.

Lets see if "the bigger the top the bigger the drop" applies to commodity futures.

   


RE: Watchlist - Traders method - isatrader - 2013-04-22

(2013-04-22, 11:29 PM)goodtyneguy Wrote: Keep an eye on Dr copper, I've posted up the weekly chart to remind peeps (isatrader has posted it before but not on the watch list) of the huge H&S pattern and also to show the target for the measured move. Arguably it's in a stage 4A and you will see the measured move coincides closely with the December 2008 low. I think it would be healthy to see a bit of consolidation around here or a bounce to provide a swing high for a place to put a stop loss order, or better still a pull back to the 4A break down level.

Lets see if "the bigger the top the bigger the drop" applies to commodity futures.


Physical stock levels at the LME are actually higher today than at the 2008 lows, so not a good fundamental sign for copper either. As large stockpiles of copper don't lead themselves to higher prices anytime soon. See the historical charts on Kitco: http://www.kitcometals.com/charts/copper_historical_large.html#lmestocks_6months

RE: Watchlist - Traders method - goodtyneguy - 2013-04-24

Imo there is a potential trader entry point short in EMC today with (ATM) an ATR200 stop around 2 on a R2R of over 1:2 to the next support level.

XLK is currently just above the 30 week MA after closing below it last week at a support level on heavier volume than previous attempts. For that reason I think there is a high probabilty that it will soon be broken sending XLK into a stage 4A.

       

I'm short at 22.61 via a spread bet in IG

Note: Ignore the MA's on the charts, I forgot I was still in my futures template in PRT. I had viewed them in my brokers charts with the correct MA's before hand, honest. Smile