(2019-07-12, 07:17 PM)briansmith456 Wrote: Hi,
I was wondering if TMQ this is  a great buying opportunity or a warning sign? It is down on double avg weekly volume but looks to just be pulling back closer to the  30 ema.

Thanks  for your thoughts,
Brian

(2019-07-14, 12:08 PM)briansmith456 Wrote: I was wondering if perhaps this chart says crude  oil (WTIC) is a buy if it breaks 62.50? Perhaps a break above will start to see WTIC price outperform SPX price. In the same token I am thinking XLE is a buy if it breaks the trendline as the 30 ema, 30 sma and 10 sma should start curling up if it breaks above the trendline.

(2019-07-14, 01:22 PM)isatrader Wrote:

(2019-07-14, 12:08 PM)briansmith456 Wrote: I was wondering if perhaps this chart says crude  oil (WTIC) is a buy if it breaks 62.50? Perhaps a break above will start to see WTIC price outperform SPX price. In the same token I am thinking XLE is a buy if it breaks the trendline as the 30 ema, 30 sma and 10 sma should start curling up if it breaks above the trendline.

The main issue with oil with regards to the method currently is that it has the weakest Relative Performance versus the market. If you read page 75 in the book (The Forest to the Trees approach) you'll see that this is the opposite of what we want to see.

I've marked up the weekly charts of both, but they each show a well defined Stage 1 range currently, and very poor Relative Performance versus the market. One of the key things to look for before a move into Stage 2 imo, is for the relative performance to be either at least in inline with the market for a few months or outperforming the market and above its zero line.

From my own research of thousands of charts over the years, the "zero line" itself (52 week simple MA of the relative performance versus the S&P 500) should be at least flattening when a stock moves into Stage 2A, but ideally starting to rise. And the relative performance line should be above it.

There are lots of big moves when a stock/index is bottoming and trying to form a Stage 1 base, and it can be tempting to try and trade in it. But, the risks are much higher than trading only Stage 2, as there's still a lot of prior supply to deal with. So my advice is to limit your risk as much as possible and try not to bottom fish in Stage 1, as its not what Stage Analysis is about.

I recommend that you read the Stage Analysis Study Guide - Questions and Answers thread, and work through the examples, as it will help you to understand the differences in quality and what to look out for.

(2019-07-15, 11:24 PM)briansmith456 Wrote: PEO.V has had a nice base and is now looking to break out over 8.52. Everything looks good but I take it one should never buy a breakout unless volume comes in?  Last few weeks there was no volume. So like with KL I would need to see that the daily volume is well above 200 sma to enter? I am assuming when stocks break out on pitiful volume there is little prospect of them going very far and are more likely to break back down soon after... It would be a shame if it breaks out on little volume as everything else- to my eye- seems really good in terms of setting up.

Thanks.

(2019-07-18, 11:59 AM)briansmith456 Wrote: All my friends were buying FSM (silver miner) in the 2.50-3 range and I kept telling them I did not want to take the risk as it was not a proper setup based on the Weinstein method. They are all laughing at me now as they are up huge.