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RE: Watchlist - Investor method - examples - EXAM WSM HOME.L CIU.L - Lplate - 2013-03-30
Isatrader produces a fantastic list of suggestions for study, but I discuss here four which are not on his list, but struck me as of interest. Not only has Richard at the great http://www.stocktiger.net fallen very ill - I used his site for suggestions - my free http://www.incrediblecharts.com now has restricted my scan results to 5 stocks per scan, but I show these shapes of interest produced today. Although I think they all fit with Weinstein long set-up, the stops are wide on a some of them, and, with the stockmarket due a pullback, I can't say I'm confident.
$600m medical examination company Examworks EXAM has a cont b/o at 16 and is now $17.50, stop $13 no resistance till $26. http://scharts.co/X3tsVb
Feb results were in line, though somehow still does not make money, and there has been some insider buying.
Following broker upgrades and intro of spring range, a cont b/o at $48 has triggered http://tinyurl.com/bpnz3gn within an 8 year stockmarket-shaped Inverse H&S for $5bn high-end home furnishings retailer William-Sonoma WSM. Now $51.50, with a stop at $43, there is no resistance. The company makes little money and looks expensive.
In UK another retailer, HOME Home Retail caught my eye for its strong cont b/o at 140p, now 155p on its mid-March trading statement beating expectations. Catalogue store Argos has improved soundly, but home products superstores Homebase has worsened a bit, but leaving the group on balanced signifcantly improved, still with approx 2% divi. To me the shares look very expensive for sluggish growth. Stage 2 b/o was at 130p, but buyers still seem to like the shares. Target 230p but stop still looks to be 115p.
Also in UK here is an oil services share Cape CIU http://tinyurl.com/d4wjfem with b/o at 300 now 320p. The stop is as low as 215, so I'd really like to see a pullback to 300 on low volume. Initial target is 400p.
The bigchart omits the earlier run up to 600p shown on yahoo. http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=CIU.L&t=5y&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c= The company overstretched itself and there were 3 profit warnings.
Although it does not make money like before yet, its new managers are upbeat. So as a speculation in search of 600p it is worth a look, I think.
RE: Watchlist - Investor method - isatrader - 2013-03-30
(2013-03-30, 12:47 PM)Lplate Wrote: $600m medical examination company Examworks EXAM has a cont b/o at 16 and is now $17.50, stop $13 no resistance till $26. http://scharts.co/X3tsVb
Feb results were in line, though somehow still does not make money, and there has been some insider buying.
Great work again Lplate. I have taken the liberty to mark up the first chart (EXAM), as as you know, I'm researching the stop loss positioning at the moment in the Stop Loss Positioning Guide thread from the old GTA reports I have, and so thought it looked a good one for a practice stop loss positioning chart.
The last notable swing low on the weekly chart close to the 30 week MA (which is at 14.18) was at 13.79, and so I believe the correct positioning of the investor stop would be below that and also the half point as it's close by. So I think the investor stop would go at 13.49
The trader stop would be a bit higher though as it would go under the most recent pivot, which was at 14.75, however, there was another previous pivot very close to that at 14.55 and so I believe it would need to go under both and also the half point as it's close again. So I think 14.49 would be where the trader stop loss would be positioned.
As I said this is my practice from the research I've done so far, which is still in progress, so don't take it as gospel as I won't be more certain until I've gone through a large amount of examples from the GTA reports in detail. But from the examples I've done so far, these would be the stop positions I believe he would suggest.
With regards to the entry point, I'm only just beginning really with the pullback entries research and so haven't put the entry zone on the chart as I'm not confident enough to do that yet with certainty as what the proper zone would be. With my current thinking however, I would personally aim for a pullback entry in the 15.75-16.25 zone, as I wouldn't want to see it go much lower than that on a pullback, and it would give a more acceptable entry to stop distance at around 5x the 200 day ATR. Anyway, attached are the weekly and daily charts.
RE: Watchlist - Investor method - Lplate - 2013-03-30
Thanks for your detailed thoughts on EXAM, isatrader, and I hope you girlfriend is recovering.
I noticed I had not put a chart for HOME, and see there is a gap on the daily chart, so, even though I am a weekly charter, I should watch for such gaps, as they are likely to offer pullbacks.
This site I just discovered by accident in looking for a chart for HOME, and it may be of interest to Weinsteiners, as it automates some of the levels you look at.
http://www.4-traders.com/HOME-RETAIL-GROUP-PLC-9590222/
RE: Watchlist - Investor method - isatrader - 2013-03-30
(2013-03-30, 03:17 PM)Lplate Wrote: Thanks for your detailed thoughts on EXAM, isatrader, and I hope you girlfriend is recovering.
I noticed I had not put a chart for HOME, and see there is a gap on the daily chart, so, even though I am a weekly charter, I should watch for such gaps, as they are likely to offer pullbacks.
This site I just discovered by accident in looking for a chart for HOME, and it may be of interest to Weinsteiners, as it automates some of the levels you look at.
http://www.4-traders.com/HOME-RETAIL-GROUP-PLC-9590222/
Yes, she's recovering slowly thanks, but she just needs a fair amount of help at the moment, and so is a bit fed up and I'm run ragged doing my work and being a full time carer. But hopefully, she'll start to improve in the next few days and we can start to get back to normal.
Thanks for the link, I'll check out the site when I have a bit of spare time.
RE: Watchlist - Investor method - goodtyneguy - 2013-04-02
(2013-03-24, 07:24 PM)isatrader Wrote: Thanks Lplate, for your really good detailed post. With regards to SEA (Guggenheim Shipping ETF) I always think it's important to see what ETFs are made up of and the weightings that the individual stocks in them have. So attached is the Guggenheim Shipping ETF Holdings with the various weightings used, so that you can see what you are buying if you do use the ETF, and check the individual charts for any resistance not obvious on the SEA chart which I've also attached. To see the full info on the ETF go to: http://guggenheiminvestments.com/products/etf/sea/holdings
Before I posted SEA up I went through all the charts of the ETFs' components and set alerts only on potential "A" trades. IIRC there were only a couple, some of the stocks with the better charts were in early stage one bases, if and when the potential "A" trades are triggered I'll post them up.
RE: Watchlist - Investor method - goodtyneguy - 2013-04-14
Gold broke down and closed below crucial support last Friday on heavy volume. A potential stage 4 is in progress.
The fly in the ointment maybe the fact that Silver has held support in a similar chart pattern so caution should be exercised with this at the moment in my opinion. I will post this and the daily chart in the trader method thread.
RE: Watchlist - Traders method - goodtyneguy - 2013-04-14
Gold broke down and closed below crucial support last Friday on heavy volume. A potential stage 4 is in progress.
The fly in the ointment maybe the fact that Silver has held support in a similar chart pattern so caution should be exercised with this at the moment in my opinion. Besides the stop is 3.79(ATR200) so it is probably better to wait for a pullback to the BD level anyway for an entry point.
What do you think isa ?
RE: Watchlist - Traders method - isatrader - 2013-04-15
(2013-04-14, 11:26 PM)goodtyneguy Wrote: Gold broke down and closed below crucial support last Friday on heavy volume. A potential stage 4 is in progress.
The fly in the ointment maybe the fact that Silver has held support in a similar chart pattern so caution should be exercised with this at the moment in my opinion. Besides the stop is 3.79(ATR200) so it is probably better to wait for a pullback to the BD level anyway for an entry point.
What do you think isa ?
Well as you noted in your daily chart, it broke down into early Stage 4A in December and went sideways for a bit before making it's first continuation move in February, and then consolidating again for another month before this latest continuation move. So it's already had a four month Stage 4 move to consider.
I'm personally leaning towards being very cautious here due to the large amount of false breakouts/breakdowns recently, as a lot of stops were taken out on Friday and so there could be a retest of the breakdown level straight away at which point you'll either get a better risk reward to go short, or the buyers will come in strongly looking to bottom fish like we saw on the Treasuries major breakdown in March.
I think it will be interesting to watch the US open, as GLD holders are a big part of the Gold market these days and so might have seen the headlines at the weekend and put sell orders in to be executed at the open on Monday. So if that does happen, then it will be important to see if it's absorbed by buy orders or not imo, as if it isn't then obviously Gold would be in trouble with the next support zone in low 1400s.
[Update]: Looks like it's tanked during the Asian session overnight and is already testing the low 1400s