Stage Analysis - Trading and Investing using Stan Weinstein's Four Stage Breakout method

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Welcome to the Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis Discussion Thread. I've been running this thread on another forum since September 2011 here:, but it's become too big to manage in a single thread. So I've created this forum for it, so that the charts can be organised in a logical way, which will make it easier for everyone to find what they are interested in.

The previous thread has over a year and half of posts, detailed discussions, interviews, examples etc, and so is an excellent starting point for anyone wanting to learn Stan Weinstein's method, but I hope to take it to the next level on here.

If you are viewing this as a guest then I'd recommend taking a minute to register as a member on here - which is free of charge, and will give you access to all main boards and the ability to post in this thread, as only members are allowed to contribute to the site.

Anyway, I hope you enjoy the thread.

Definitions of the Stages and Sub-stages

Stage 1A Start of a base. Needs much more time.
Stage 1 Basing Phase. May begin accumulation.
Stage 1B Late in base-building phase. Watch for breakout.

Stage 2A Early in uptrend stage. Ideal time to buy aggressively.
Stage 2 Advancing Stage.
Stage 2B Getting late in uptrend.

Stage 3A Looks as if a top is starting to form. Be sure to protect holdings with a close stop.
Stage 3 The Top Area. Start to reduce positions.
Stage 3B Has become increasingly toppy. Use rallies for at least partial selling.

Stage 4A Stock has entered Downtrend Stage. Close out remaining positions.
Stage 4 The Declining Stage. Avoid on the long side.
Stage 4B Late in downtrend. Much too soon to consider buying.
Stage 4B- Although not yet “officially” in Stage 1A, stock has now seen its low for the cycle.

Additional ratings
(A) Early in that Stage.
(B) Late in that Stage.
(+) Outstanding pattern in that Stage.
(–) Unexciting pattern in that Stage.



Audio interviews with Stan Weinstein
Stan Weinstein | FINANCIAL SENSE

Video Interview from the day of the 1987 Stock Market crash
Black Monday - Part 2 - Nightly Business Report Oct.19, 1987 - YouTube

Stan Weinstein Q&A


Global Trend Alert example - March 2005

Extract from Stan Weinstein's interview in the "Technically Speaking" book

Extract from Stan Weinstein's interview in the "The Heretics of Finance" book


How to create the Mansfield Relative Strength Indicator

Buying Reference

Point and Figure Charts - Free resources to help learn P&F charting

Effective Volume Analysis - Link to the website that covers everything to do with the Effective Volume data from the book Value in Time: Better Trading through Effective Volume

Major Charts Update - week ending 22nd February 2013

Attached is the updated major charts and the relative performance table. The FTSE 100 holds onto the top spot for another week, while the DAX moves back to second place. The notable mover this week in the table was the Dollar Index (DX) which moved up two places to 8th. The Dollar Index made a closing breakout above the 200 day MA, but didn't close the week above the November high however. The 30 week weighted MA turned up, bu the 30 week SMA is still declining, and so if it breakouts here it wouldn't be considered a valid Stage 2 entry point until the 30 week MA stabilised. It has however, been a big driving force behind the commodity declines this week along with the Chinese market ($SSEC) pullback, which particularly affected Copper and the Base Materials sector.

Treasuries also had a strong week and closed around the top of the one month range and above their reasonably steep downtrend lines, but are still well below declining 30 week MAs.

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Attached is the long, medium and short term moving average breadth charts and the NYSE Bullish Percent Index. The short term moving average breadth charts continued to deteriorate this week and most gave high pole warnings and below their 50 day MAs on the line charts, which moves them to Bear Alert status imo. The medium term NYSE Percentage of Stocks above their 150 day Moving Averages chart also changed columns to Os on Thursday and so moved to Bull Correction status.

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Attached is the the weekly and daily charts of the major sectors and below is the relative performance table in order of strength. Notable changes this week were the crosses above and below the zero line for Consumer Staples (XLP) and Basic Materials (XLB) and the move off the bottom stop for Utilities (XLU). Health Care (XLV) also moved up and so the three defensive sectors showed the best relative performance which is unsurprising considering the volatile week in the US market.

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There was numerous changes this week for the first time this year with four more sectors moving below their 10 week MAs. Consumer Staples, Technology, Energy, Health Care all move to a sell signal and so the market is very mixed with four sectors still green and five now red.

Financials and Industrials remain the strongest sectors with over 80% of their stocks above their 150 day moving averages whereas Health Care and Basic Materials are the weakest sectors with only 55.94% and 52% of their stocks above their 150 day moving averages.

Below is the data table for the Percent of Stocks Above 150 Day Moving Average in each sector which I've ordered by relative strength, with the highest to the lowest percentage in each sector. Also attached is the visual diagram of the 9 sectors and the overall NYSE Percentage of Stocks above their 150 day Moving Averages, plus the 1% P&F chart and line chart of the nine sectors.

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Here's the rest of the weeks breadth charts I follow...

  • Cumulative P&F Breakouts - Breakdowns had it's first negative of the year with only 6 breakouts to 16 breakdowns. So -10 for the week, which has taken it 11.6 from it's 20 day MA which I use as a signal/action line, and it's been above since late November 2012.
  • The six Advance Decline measures took a small hit, but nothing serious yet and so remain on buy signals imo.
  • New Highs dropped back close to crossing below New Lows, but closed the week back above the 100 level.
  • The NYSE Volume Advancing / Volume Declining Ratio had a spike in declining volume mid week, but Friday's advancing volume was fairly strong also and so is a mixed still imo.
  • The short and medium term volatility breadth charts $NYA/$NYA50R and $NYA/$NYA150R both moved back above their 50 day MAs for the first time since November and so change to sell signals imo.
  • The Put/Call ratio closed the week in bearish territory, and the $SPX/$CPC ratio has gone flat.
  • The S&P 500 to US Treasuries ratio 1% reversal P&F charts both reversed to a column of Os.
  • And finally the effective volume charts - The QQQ is now on a sell signal as it's dropped below it's 20 day MA and the February lows, whereas the SPY and IWM both rebounded at their 20 day MAs, and are at or close to new highs still - and so are still positive.
So a very mixed picture this week.
The medium term NYSE Percentage of Stocks above their 150 day Moving Averages chart added an additional O today, which means it's dropped below 50% of the previous column of Xs, and hence given a P&F High Pole warning. So the status changes from Bull Correction to Bear Alert now for the medium term moving average breadth chart.
interestingly that although the market reversed hard yesterday the $BPNYA hardly fell at all..
(02-26-2013, 10:50 AM)theblackmamba Wrote: [ -> ]interestingly that although the market reversed hard yesterday the bpnya hardly fell at all..

That's partly because of the nature of how P&F charts are calculated in that they can only move once per day. i.e. yesterday had a strong open and so a lot of stocks would have added an additional X if they were already in a column of Xs, even if they later reversed lower, as they can only make one move per day.

The $BPNYA is a compilation of the percent of stocks that trade on the NYSE that are on Point and Figure buy signals and tells you whether to be offensive or defensive with your strategy. And it also takes a lot to move the NYSE Bullish Percent Index because of the large amount of stocks in it, which is why it's used as a long term gauge of risk and not a so much as a timing measure.