[mongoose1969]

I've read through your thread and set up that indicator. I want to be sure I'm looking at the cloud the way I'm supposed to. Is the goal to make sure the cloud is not as "thick" above the price like it looks with BANX? As I look at something like RDCM, the cloud is actually under the price trend. I guess I need an assist with what I'm supposed to be looking at with that cloud.

A thick cloud above the current price is bad, as it shows a lot of potential resistance. The ideal is to have a Stage 2A breakout occur above the cloud. For simplicity sake, above the cloud is good, below the cloud is bad. Thick cloud is heavy resistance and thin cloud is light resistance. However, ichimoku is an extremely complicated subject, and I believe there's more than ten volumes of books by the creator of it to explain it's use. So we are only looking at a small fraction of it, as like Stage Analysis it's a complete trading method of it's own.

Stockcharts have a explaination page that should help you understand it's basic uses here: http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?i...moku_cloud

But in terms of Stage Analysis I just use only the cloud part for visualising potential resistance, as it speeds up manual scans of stocks which are necessary when using Stage Analysis.

Thanks Isatrader....and thanks for patiently explaining this stuff. It's fun to learn, especially with knowledgable people.

[mongoose1969]

OK...let's see if I get this one right. SWHC looks like it's been in Stage 2 since January 2015 with an upper resistance dating back to October 2007 (assuming that is even accurate). Not suggesting a buy at this point since it looks like the breakout was the January 2015 date, but am I even seeing this right?

[isatrader]

OK...let's see if I get this one right. SWHC looks like it's been in Stage 2 since January 2015 with an upper resistance dating back to October 2007 (assuming that is even accurate). Not suggesting a buy at this point since it looks like the breakout was the January 2015 date, but am I even seeing this right?

No. The Stage 2A breakout point for SWHC wasn't until April 2015, as the breakout point that you are refering to didn't meet the Stage Analysis criteria, as in Jan 15 it's still had a declining 30 week MA. See Stans' Don't Commandments in the book. The relative performance was still below it's zero line, and as you can see from the attached chart, it was still below near term resistance. So only one of the four key criteria was met in Jan 15's breakout.

   

Go back to the Stage Analysis Study Guide - Questions and Answers thread and read about the length of bases etc.

[mongoose1969]

OK...let's see if I get this one right. SWHC looks like it's been in Stage 2 since January 2015 with an upper resistance dating back to October 2007 (assuming that is even accurate). Not suggesting a buy at this point since it looks like the breakout was the January 2015 date, but am I even seeing this right?

No. The Stage 2A breakout point for SWHC wasn't until April 2015, as the breakout point that you are refering to didn't meet the Stage Analysis criteria, as in Jan 15 it's still had a declining 30 week MA. See Stans' Don't Commandments in the book. The relative performance was still below it's zero line, and as you can see from the attached chart, it was still below near term resistance. So only one of the four key criteria was met in Jan 15's breakout.



Go back to the Stage Analysis Study Guide - Questions and Answers thread and read about the length of bases etc.

Ha! I'm laughing right now. 25% right. Good thing I'm sitting on the sidelines with any capital at the moment. Regarding near term resistance, did you determine the breakout was April because that was the point where the price was above the top of cloud in your chart in addition to the other criteria (increasing 30MA, price above 30MA, volume spike, relative performance above it's zero line and increasing)?

[mongoose1969]

OK...here is a new one. ZAGG appears to me that it's meeting all the requirements. Volume is up, price above 30 MA, MA trending up, relative strength heading in the right direction, price is above the "cloud". ProRealTime seems to show an upper resistance around $13.

Am I any closer to being better than 25% right?

   

[isatrader]

OK...here is a new one. ZAGG appears to me that it's meeting all the requirements. Volume is up, price above 30 MA, MA trending up, relative strength heading in the right direction, price is above the "cloud". ProRealTime seems to show an upper resistance around $13.

Am I any closer to being better than 25% right?

You need to use the Logarithmic scale on your weekly charts and show the high and low prices, as you can't determine the suppport and resistance ranges otherwise, and it's very hard to see the true range of Stage 1 bases clearly without it.

Below I've attached a marked up chart for you, so you can see how I see the stock in terms of Stage Analysis, and to show that it's not just me marking it up with hindsight, I've attached the chart I posted on here on the 6th August 2014, that showed it was in early Stage 2A then, but still struggling through resistance. Which as we can see now with the updated chart that it took more than six months to get through the resistance and start to move higher. i.e. remember those opportunities costs again, as that's six months of your money tied up.

       

It recently made a new Stage 2 continuation breakout, but is very far from it's averages, and so would only be considered in the method currently imo, on a pullback towards support, as it's too far away from the trader and investor stop loss positions.

[shaunattwood]

Potential short sales:
CEB (Head & Shoulders Top)
LBTYA (500% run up)
AAN (5 year top violated)
TYC, VRNT, PTSI, LYG, RRGB

[isatrader]

For the short watchlist - IBB looks ready for a potential second leg down in it's Stage 4 decline