$AA reported earnings before the open and now a potenial short on the intraday 2 hour chart with a distributional Stage 3 structure rolling over.
Bitcoin attempting to put in a higher low and moving back through the 10 day MA
$MGI back through the 200 day MA on 174% above average volume for the time of day. So potential for a Significant Bar. Earnings: Feb 21
$PTON Stage 4 decline has made the full roundtrip wiping out the entire 2020 Stage 2 advance.
$NFLX with earnings after the close. It's currently back in Stage 3 after the Stage 2 failure and change of behaviour back in November with the Reversal Significant Bar on the weekly chart. Its currently below the 200 day MA, so a negative reaction could send it into Stage 4.
NFLX is the major stock reporting earnings after the close today. ISRG and CSX are other stocks of note with financials making up the bulk of the rest.
SLB is the main stock reporting before open tomorrow and some more financials as well.
Lower highs again today in the indexes as the bounce fades into the end of the day.
$TSLA looks like one of the potential next shoes to drop as it fails again today to get back through the 50 day MA after forming the lower high. So on breakdown watch.
The tape tells all
NFLX gapping down over -10% in the after hours on earnings. So is another mega cap attempting a Stage 4 breakdown
Silver strong again today
isatrader
Fate does not always let you fix the tuition fee. She delivers the educational wallop and presents her own bill - Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.
*SLB has earnings before market open (BMO), so although looking strong relative to the market action, it is in a potential double top position also. So it is also a potential short if a negative reaction to earnings on a reversal through the prior June high.
isatrader
Fate does not always let you fix the tuition fee. She delivers the educational wallop and presents her own bill - Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.
Nasdaq Composite closed at a significant support level yesterday.
So an important test of that support today. Hence, I'm going to be watching for undercut and rally / spring type moves today as is a natural cover point for short term shorts.
One hour in. Time for the first bounce attempt. Will see if it's got any legs or not.
A few of the mega caps edging into the green, and smalls caps indexes also.
S&P 500 intraday 2 hour chart
Potential intraday Stage 4 selling climax. So attempt to stop and start a range.
Indexes Comparison chart - the bounce attempt faded once more today and the downside resumed with every major index closing at the lows for the week with significant bars on the weekly charts.
isatrader
Fate does not always let you fix the tuition fee. She delivers the educational wallop and presents her own bill - Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.
Think the market is extended to the downside? History shows that it can get a lot worse.
See the NYSE Bullish Percent Index data since 1987
As I talked about in the weekend video. Although the Nasdaq is much lower, the NYSE is still playing catch up on downside. For it to become a major market Stage 4 decline, the NYSE stocks have got to selloff too including the defensive areas of the market.
On the intraday Bullish Percent charts the trend has gone vertical to the downside. So will be watching for signs of a turn in these. But a long way below the 30 bar MA currently.
Nasdaq Composite Bullish Percent Index since 1996 is weaker than the NYSE. But also still shows that at previous major lows it has been a lot worse. Focus on risk, not on trying to catch a bottom.
First signs of a intraday bounce attempt.
$VIX double top territory
$GLD Gold - RS through the zero line (52 week RS MA) for first time since 2020.
The tape is really heavy, but not seeing panic yet imo.
It's picking up steam now. Closer to -5% in the QQQ.
As we come towards the end of the day the Undercut and Rally / Spring type action scan is producing 161 results currently. Which is the highest I've seen it at, and clearly a big reversal intraday. So certainly a lot of stocks attempting to put in a swing low.
This has strengthened even more. Now up to 219.
Big change in the tape by the end of day with the undercut and & rally scan closing at 240 results. So it continued to strengthen into close. Nasdaq 100, S&P 500 and Russell 2000 Small Caps 2 hour charts all showing Selling Climaxes (SC). Potential Phase A.
I've added the Undercut and Rally scan results as a .csv file attachment below. The best of them will be in the watchlist a bit later once I've gone through all of todays scans and refined it.
isatrader
Fate does not always let you fix the tuition fee. She delivers the educational wallop and presents her own bill - Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.
A big list tonight, with the large amount of U&R type moves today. But with those type I'm looking at them for potential mean reversions to the short term MAs or to prior resistance, as many are fairly broken technically. Energy stocks with most potential & RS to reach new highs.
Also, remember that earnings season is underway, so make sure that you know when any stocks that are trading are reporting. Go to https://www.earningswhispers.com/calendar and use the search if you're not sure.
$CDEV from tonights watchlist caught my eye on the weekly chart with a Volatility Contraction Pattern (VCP)* developing with VCP Footprint of 31W 48/14 3T
*See Mark Minervini's excellent books that include Chapters on Stage Analysis to learn about the VCP and how it is traded.
isatrader
Fate does not always let you fix the tuition fee. She delivers the educational wallop and presents her own bill - Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.
Market is set for a red open again. So if yesterday was a local Selling Climax (SC) then we've got the 1st 2 points of a potential Phase A of a base structure defined with yesterdays high as the Automatic Rally (AR) point - which defines the range. Watching for red to green moves
Intraday charts - dip buyers making the first attempt
@JannesariSam highlighting $CF which was last highlighted in the watchlist on 3rd November.
Stage 2A breakout attempt in the intraday 2 hour timeframe
This is still quite early in the base structure as it's in Phase B and still under resistance, so watch for signs of an Upthrust developing if volume is lower than average. As a breakout attempt into Stage 2 should have more than 2x the average volume on the breakout.
$SLB from the watchlist showing good RS versus the market following earnings last Friday
$HAL from the watchlist also showing excellent RS and at new highs today
$CDEV from the watchlist holding up well today with a red to green move, and sitting just under the pivot level
$AXP from the watchlist with Reversal Significant Bar today following earnings before the open today.
$MDRX last highlighted in the watchlist on the 14th December making a gap up Stage 2 breakout attempt today with potential significant bar
$HOPE is a new one for the watchlist in the banking group with a Stage 2 continuation attempt to new highs
$CF breakout attempt squatted at the prior resistance, so looking like an upthrust within the developing range so far with a double top.
$SPPP Sprott Physical Platinum and Palladium Trust showing good near term RS and potentially moving back into early Stage 1 on the weekly timeframe
$SG from yesterdays watchlist with a good test today and attempting to follow through in early Phase D of the Stage 1 base structure
$BROS last highlighted on the 10th January. Has since put in potential Spring / Terminal Shakeout and moved back strongly into the Stage 1 base structure. And so potentially into early Phase D.
$BROS also showing as a spring on the daily chart. Testing the 50 day MA currently.
$OXY another energy stock attempting a new Stage 2 breakout
$MSFT with earnings after the bell, so could be a big driver of the market direction tomorrow ahead of the Fed and $TSLA, and then $AAPL on Thursday AMC
$CF closed near to the highs of the day. So did make the early Stage 2 breakout attempt. But it still didn't have much conviction. So could need to consolidate more still.
isatrader
Fate does not always let you fix the tuition fee. She delivers the educational wallop and presents her own bill - Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.
