(2019-08-17, 10:51 AM)briansmith456 Wrote: The big miners have a similar look but the question is do they come back to just test the 10 sma (assuming they keep pulling back) or whether they come back to test the 30 ema roughly or even test the lower trendline. Isatrader may have some thoughts as knows much more than I do.
Personally, I think the thing to be aware of at the moment is the major market moves, as if there is a sharp down move, then the stocks that have had the most momentum recently tend to get hit very hard. As people are forced to liquidate positions that they might have wanted to hold, due to margin calls in their accounts. Which then has a knock on effect of driving stocks even lower. This is one of the reasons that down moves are much quicker. And also the momentum stocks attract the short term traders, and so they are less likely to hold the positions through a correction.
So what i'm saying is be aware of what the broad market is doing as well as gold and silver, as during the initial part of a pullback in the broad market. Everything tends to get hit. What you want to see is if the stocks you are watching recover quickly and hold up well under the market pressure. As then they might be a good position to consider buying as the market pressure subsides, and the weak holders have been flushed out.
Thanks Isa. Based on your read of the stock market do you see the market continuing to correct? I was thinking it has bottomed if not very close to bottom so if you see signs of market continuing in correction mode please let me know what you are looking at.
Regards,
Brian
(2019-08-17, 02:04 PM)briansmith456 Wrote: Thanks Isa. Based on your read of the stock market do you see the market continuing to correct? I was thinking it has bottomed if not very close to bottom so if you see signs of market continuing in correction mode please let me know what you are looking at.
Regards,
Brian
The breadth indicators that I follow haven't had any short term buy signals, and the effective volume that splits the large and small player volume also hasn't shown any signs of large players coming back into the market yet, which is essential imo for a bottom to form. And the index chart pattern is showing a bear flag I believe. So I think there's potentially more downside yet imo. But I maybe wrong. But I'm remaining cash until there's at least some short term buy signals from the various breadth indicators I follow.
isatrader
Fate does not always let you fix the tuition fee. She delivers the educational wallop and presents her own bill - Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.
(This post was last modified: 2019-08-17, 03:25 PM by briansmith456.)
RE: US Stocks and ETFs - Watchlist and Discussion
(2019-08-17, 02:16 PM)isatrader Wrote:
(2019-08-17, 02:04 PM)briansmith456 Wrote: Thanks Isa. Based on your read of the stock market do you see the market continuing to correct? I was thinking it has bottomed if not very close to bottom so if you see signs of market continuing in correction mode please let me know what you are looking at.
Regards,
Brian
The breadth indicators that I follow haven't had any short term buy signals, and the effective volume that splits the large and small player volume also hasn't shown any signs of large players coming back into the market yet, which is essential imo for a bottom to form. And the index chart pattern is showing a bear flag I believe. So I think there's potentially more downside yet imo. But I maybe wrong. But I'm remaining cash until there's at least some short term buy signals from the various breadth indicators I follow.
For me I am waiting for the $NASI to turn up (do a crossover) which will signify market bottom, just as in Dec (when most everyone was calling for generational market top) as we have divergence now too, just need to see the cross over. Actually hoping for the market to fall a bit more to get the same kind of divergence as last December and watch for the crossover in the $NASI. Now most everyone is also freaking out over a recession calling a market top so I think this market will see 3200+ on S+P. Very nice inverse head and shoulders setting up on larger timeframe too if we break over 3060.
(2019-08-17, 11:16 AM)isatrader Wrote: So what i'm saying is be aware of what the broad market is doing as well as gold and silver, as during the initial part of a pullback in the broad market. Everything tends to get hit. What you want to see is if the stocks you are watching recover quickly and hold up well under the market pressure. As then they might be a good position to consider buying as the market pressure subsides, and the weak holders have been flushed out.
Thank you. So you'd consider the gold and silver miners against the whole market, not just against those metals then? I've been ignoring the wider market for these particular miners. However, you've been around longer and done better than I.
I notices that gold and silver recently paused before making a continuation. However, the miners have paused and even dropped back some, as others have noted, but generally not made the continuation move. So I wonder if this is a posative correlation with the broader market, e.g. general lack of money flowing into all stocks / flowing out, or a negative correlation, people are waiting to see if the broader market falls more before buying miners?
(2019-08-17, 04:15 PM)pcabc Wrote: I notices that gold and silver recently paused before making a continuation. However, the miners have paused and even dropped back some, as others have noted, but generally not made the continuation move. So I wonder if this is a posative correlation with the broader market, e.g. general lack of money flowing into all stocks / flowing out, or a negative correlation, people are waiting to see if the broader market falls more before buying miners?
My experience with the Gold and Silver miners, is that they do tend to show a positive correlation to the market in the initial part of a market correction, especially silver miners which are more volatile and move later than gold stocks, as basically all equity stocks take a hit when there's panic selling and margin calls. But as a market correction progresses, gold miners tend to be one of the first sectors to recover into Stage 2, or to make continuations if already in Stage 2, especially if spot gold is already in Stage 2, and then that starts to encourage people into Silver too.
isatrader
Fate does not always let you fix the tuition fee. She delivers the educational wallop and presents her own bill - Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.