(2018-08-10, 07:43 PM)arkyuan Wrote: hi Isa,
  Looking back at the charts for this one, HEAR had contract volume after breaking out but the pullback never happened. I found that's the case for most of the stocks. I was wondering if it's a good idea to enter on a contract volume with no pullbacks?Â
  If I look at daily chart, the original breakout happened April 09th, with a pullback at April 12. The volume on April 13 does look scary a bit. But I find April 25 , May 2th or May 9th should be a good entry point already? How many days do we give volume to contract after breakout?
Thanks,
Regards,
Ark,
Unfortunately, there's not a good answer for this, as every stock is different, and getting in on pullbacks is very difficult, unless there's a well defined range that has formed over a number of weeks or more. And a pullback doesn't always happen, sometimes, it's simply a consolidation period and then the stock carries on higher and you are forced to watch from the sidelines as there's no low risk entry point. Point and figure charts can be useful for identifying consolidation ranges, and based on it P&F chart, the triple top breakout was on the 3rd May.
However, it had some significant negatives to consider if you were considering trading it at that point. Firstly it had moved 278% from the February low in just 3 months. Secondly, it had moved rapidly through it's resistance ranges. And thirdly it was 144% above it's 30 week MA, and 92% above it's 10 week MA. So, absolutely no chance of a low risk entry imo, and hence why I mentioned it was one to watch to see what happens on it's first significant pullback once the initial Stage 2A high volume thrust had ended. However, it never ended, and infact expanded even more in the following week, and so is simply one that got away, as we are trading and not gambling, and so we have to trade with the information that have at the right edge of the chart. So even though it may look great in hindsight now. There was never a clear entry point imo after when it was first highlighted on 30th April based on what we look for in the method, where you could have used proper money management to limit your risk. As risk should always be the first consideration in any trade. Otherwise you are gambling, and not trading imo.
hi isa,
  thanks for the info, I do find myself always watching from the sidelines and thought I'm doing some wrong...
that being said I want to see if there is other ways I can enter it safely. In the book it mentioned triple confirmation pattern, I feel like HEAR looks like one?Â
  1. heavy volume – more than twice the underlying level, and for several weeks from the start of the breakout (volume picked up more than twice since march 26)
  2. relative strength that begins as negative or close to zero, but breaks out decisively to the upside along with the price (flat RS line with decisive positive swing)
  3. a big price move up (40%+) before the breakout signal – this implies a base pattern that has relatively wide swings up and down within the overall sideways trend (at april 30, it was more than 40%)
More over in the book it says bigger the base, bigger the move, HEAR had a flat base for a long period of time, therefore the breakout is more significant I find. Also it looks like a double-barreled action before breakout on April 09. I don't know much about head-shoulder formation, I think we can draw a neckline around 2.48?
(2018-08-11, 04:04 AM)arkyuan Wrote: hi isa,
  thanks for the info, I do find myself always watching from the sidelines and thought I'm doing some wrong...
that being said I want to see if there is other ways I can enter it safely. In the book it mentioned triple confirmation pattern, I feel like HEAR looks like one?Â
  1. heavy volume – more than twice the underlying level, and for several weeks from the start of the breakout (volume picked up more than twice since march 26)
  2. relative strength that begins as negative or close to zero, but breaks out decisively to the upside along with the price (flat RS line with decisive positive swing)
  3. a big price move up (40%+) before the breakout signal – this implies a base pattern that has relatively wide swings up and down within the overall sideways trend (at april 30, it was more than 40%)
More over in the book it says bigger the base, bigger the move, HEAR had a flat base for a long period of time, therefore the breakout is more significant I find. Also it looks like a double-barreled action before breakout on April 09. I don't know much about head-shoulder formation, I think we can draw a neckline around 2.48?
This looks like an exceptional winner for stan?
Yes I agree, which is why I highlighted it. However, I didn't see it until about four weeks after the a Stage 2A entry point and so could only watch for a secondary entry to form at that point, as it was too late to enter safely (i.e. it was already 100% above the entry point). But the secondary entry point never formed, so I could only watch from the sidelines as it exploded higher.
So as I said previously, risk should always be the first consideration in any trade with the method. You shouldn't chase a stock that you've missed the entry point on, however good it looks in hindsight, as there's always other stocks that will be just as good in future. Just keep practicing how to identify them, and then you'll be ready for the next one. But always keep your losses small by getting in at the proper entry points, where you can limit your risk and you'll do much better than most, and start to catch the occasional exceptional winner. The downside to trading with a risk first aproach is that you'll have to watch some leave you behind. But the upside is that you'll losses will always be small and managable.
isatrader
Fate does not always let you fix the tuition fee. She delivers the educational wallop and presents her own bill - Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.
Tuesday additions to the watchlist from my relative volume scans - AIT, ANF, CLAR (watch how it behaves on next significant pullback or multi-week consolidation), PETQ
isatrader
Fate does not always let you fix the tuition fee. She delivers the educational wallop and presents her own bill - Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.
A big down day in the market today, and my cumulative P&F chart and indicators have moved to what I use as a risk off signal. So some caution warranted imo.
However, there was still some additions for watchlist today, and looks like the cannabis sector has come alive again in the last few days, with volume going into multiple stocks, so there's a few in the watchlist tonight.
Here's Wednesdays additions to the watchlist - CGC, CRON, EKSO, HIKU.CA, TRST.TO, WDAY, WEED.TO
isatrader
Fate does not always let you fix the tuition fee. She delivers the educational wallop and presents her own bill - Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.
