[isatrader]

Additions to the watchlist today on the long side - RTC.L, ACM.L, ANR.L (Stage 1B)

           

Only one for the short watchlist today - BWNG.L (Stage 3)

   

[Tryst]

what I meant was that in your chart you state that it attempted a breakdown/continuation move. Is the price did break down to new lows a few weeks back would the price range from Aug 2012 until the price break down a few weeks ago be classified as a stage for continuation move? This is where my question comes from, can a stage 4 continuation move last as long as this amount of time? (almost 22 months)

I think it's semantics as to whether it's called a Stage 4 continuation breakdown or a new Stage 4A breakdown in this case. Personally, if a stock has had a Stage 4 decline and then moved into Stage 1 and attempted to base, before breaking down once more below the base, then I consider that a continuation move of the previous Stage 4, as the Stage 1 is just a pause in a longer term downtrend. But if moved back into Stage 2 and 3 before breaking down again, then I'd consider it a new Stage 4. But in this case, as it never made it into Stage 2, then I'd consider it a continuation of the previous Stage 4.

Hopefully that makes sense

It looks like L.AQP has turned out to be a continuation. I am not sure what happened fundementally, but it has a massive gap down to new all time lows and on above average volume, but less than recent weeks volume (so far). An example showing to not try to be too cute and go all in early in a stage 1 base.

Not sure what the tell tale signs are looking at the chart that this was going to happen as the recent high volume was on good price action.

   

[isatrader]

It looks like L.AQP has turned out to be a continuation. I am not sure what happened fundamentally, but it has a massive gap down to new all time lows and on above average volume, but less than recent weeks volume (so far). An example showing to not try to be too cute and go all in early in a stage 1 base.

Not sure what the tell tale signs are looking at the chart that this was going to happen as the recent high volume was on good price action.

There was no way to know in this case as the company has done a "Rights Issue", giving all the current holders of the stock a chance to buy shares at 16p. So a secondary offering, but for all shareholders. It's not an area I know anything about, but I believe if they take up the offer then it's similar to a split in that they won't have lost anything. But if they don't then they'll be down considerably.

As you said, it's a good example of why Weinstein recommends buying at the Stage 2 breakout level as bottom picking in Stage 1 is often too early and has a higher risk of failure.

So, it should come off the watchlist now, as it's gaped below the Stage 1 range we were watching, and so it's going to have to make a considerable recovery or form a new Stage 1 range before it's interesting again.

[pcabc]

There was no way to know in this case as the company has done a "Rights Issue", giving all the current holders of the stock a chance to buy shares at 16p. So a secondary offering, but for all shareholders. It's not an area I know anything about, but I believe if they take up the offer then it's similar to a split in that they won't have lost anything. But if they don't then they'll be down considerably.

I'll have to look it up, I thought that in a rights issue if you don't exercise your right you automatically have the right sold for you. Therefore you are not down, you have a smaller % ownership of the company and some cash. Maybe I'm confusing terminology.

[isatrader]

I'll have to look it up, I thought that in a rights issue if you don't exercise your right you automatically have the right sold for you. Therefore you are not down, you have a smaller % ownership of the company and some cash. Maybe I'm confusing terminology.

As I said, it's not something I know anything about, as I haven't had any personal experience with rights issues. But whatever the case, additional shares is dilution, which is rarely a good thing for the stock price in the short term.

[isatrader]

Here's today's stocks for the watchlist - CEY.L, MOIL.L, TSTL.L, SND.L,

               

On on the short side - WSG.L, MLIN.L, SEPU.L, LSL.L, THAL.L

                   

[Tryst]

Here's today's stocks for the watchlist - CEY.L, MOIL.L

I do like the look of CEY. Potentially ground breaking fundamental news released today re. its court case and 3rd party claims. Its gapped up above resistance, so taking a position now would be a bit in no mans land. Maybe wait to see if tests support (previous resistance).

Isatrader, with MOIL, what is your staged analysis take on this one? Is it still in stage 1 until it sticks a weekly landing above your 2nd resistance line? So a close above this resistance would be bullish tomorrow...as it starts a stage 2A?

The oil and gas producers sector is one of no trend, so would you still consider a trade in that case?

Re. the oil and gas producers you can see that some stocks are in bear markets while others the path of least resistance is higher, which explains the sectors lack of primary trend.

Thanks

[isatrader]

Isatrader, with MOIL, what is your staged analysis take on this one? Is it still in stage 1 until it sticks a weekly landing above your 2nd resistance line? So a close above this resistance would be bullish tomorrow...as it starts a stage 2A?

In my opinion it broke out into Stage 2A at the beginning of the year on the weekly close above the lower trendline that I marked on the chart, as it also broke above it's relative performance zero line, the 30 week MA went flat, and it had a small volume pickup - although, not enough to meet the methods requirements for an entry, and it was still below a lot of resistance, which has contributed to it's volatile Stage 2 so far. Also it was a very early breakout.

So I'd now put it at it's second continuation point. But if it can clear the trendline from the 2013 swing high marked and see an increase in volume, then it will be in a much better position to potentially continue its advance.

The oil and gas producers sector is one of no trend, so would you still consider a trade in that case?

Re. the oil and gas producers you can see that some stocks are in bear markets while others the path of least resistance is higher, which explains the sectors lack of primary trend.

The Oil and Gas Producers chart (NMX0530) is in a very broad Stage 1 range, so although not the strongest sector, it's also not the weakest, as it currently resides 19th in the overall relative performance rankings out of 39. And hence only stocks with the very best A+ technical patterns in the group would be tradable imo.

Personally, I'd say MOIL.L has a B or C grade technical pattern currently, as it only has a small base and hardly any volume increase since Stage 2 began, and it's not clear what that volume surge in March was.