We're looking at almost 22 months of being in a continuation move...is that possible for that amount of time?
A basing to take this long I could understand, but a continuation seems quite long. Is there a consensus that stage 1 bases are longer in time that continuations/consolidations?
RE: UK Stocks - Watchlist and Discussion (Premium)
(2014-04-19, 11:29 PM)Tryst Wrote: We're looking at almost 22 months of being in a continuation move...is that possible for that amount of time?
A basing to take this long I could understand, but a continuation seems quite long. Is there a consensus that stage 1 bases are longer in time that continuations/consolidations?
I don't really understand that question. After such a severe Stage 4 decline from over 400 down to the 30s in 2011/2012, would you not expect a very long Stage 1 base?
It's first Stage 2 attempt in late 2012 inevitably failed as it was too soon and still under heavy resistance after a 90%+ fall. Since then it's worked sideways to lower on weaker volume as it's gradually worked off the selling pressure, and formed a lower swing high which would now define the top of the new Stage 1 range imo in the mid 50s.
The "Wyckoff Spring" a few weeks back on the failed Stage 4 continuation breakdown attempt is a possible sign of a selling climax, and why I thought worthy of the watchlist, even though it's still got a lot of work to do to move into Stage 2 above it's Sept 2013 swing high.
isatrader
Fate does not always let you fix the tuition fee. She delivers the educational wallop and presents her own bill - Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.
RE: UK Stocks - Watchlist and Discussion (Premium)
(2014-04-20, 12:11 AM)isatrader Wrote:
(2014-04-19, 11:29 PM)Tryst Wrote: We're looking at almost 22 months of being in a continuation move...is that possible for that amount of time?
A basing to take this long I could understand, but a continuation seems quite long. Is there a consensus that stage 1 bases are longer in time that continuations/consolidations?
I don't really understand that question. After such a severe Stage 4 decline from over 400 down to the 30s in 2011/2012, would you not expect a very long Stage 1 base?
It's first Stage 2 attempt in late 2012 inevitably failed as it was too soon and still under heavy resistance after a 90%+ fall. Since then it's worked sideways to lower on weaker volume as it's gradually worked off the selling pressure, and formed a lower swing high which would now define the top of the new Stage 1 range imo in the mid 50s.
The "Wyckoff Spring" a few weeks back on the failed Stage 4 continuation breakdown attempt is a possible sign of a selling climax, and why I thought worthy of the watchlist, even though it's still got a lot of work to do to move into Stage 2 above it's Sept 2013 swing high.
Hi Isatrader,
what I meant was that in your chart you state that it attempted a breakdown/continuation move. Is the price did break down to new lows a few weeks back would the price range from Aug 2012 until the price break down a few weeks ago be classified as a stage for continuation move? This is where my question comes from, can a stage 4 continuation move last as long as this amount of time? (almost 22 months)
RE: UK Stocks - Watchlist and Discussion (Premium)
(2014-04-20, 12:48 PM)Tryst Wrote: what I meant was that in your chart you state that it attempted a breakdown/continuation move. Is the price did break down to new lows a few weeks back would the price range from Aug 2012 until the price break down a few weeks ago be classified as a stage for continuation move? This is where my question comes from, can a stage 4 continuation move last as long as this amount of time? (almost 22 months)
I think it's semantics as to whether it's called a Stage 4 continuation breakdown or a new Stage 4A breakdown in this case. Personally, if a stock has had a Stage 4 decline and then moved into Stage 1 and attempted to base, before breaking down once more below the base, then I consider that a continuation move of the previous Stage 4, as the Stage 1 is just a pause in a longer term downtrend. But if moved back into Stage 2 and 3 before breaking down again, then I'd consider it a new Stage 4. But in this case, as it never made it into Stage 2, then I'd consider it a continuation of the previous Stage 4.
Hopefully that makes sense
isatrader
Fate does not always let you fix the tuition fee. She delivers the educational wallop and presents her own bill - Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.
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isatrader
Fate does not always let you fix the tuition fee. She delivers the educational wallop and presents her own bill - Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.
