[isatrader]

Could we be in a period similar to the early 1980’s?

The initial pullback in 1981-82 was quite severe at -28% and lasted six quarters and went well below the breakout level before turning higher, and the secondary pullback in 1983-84 was -14.7% and lasted another four quarters and was also quite strong.

A similar percentage pullback in the next year would take the S&P 500 back to between 1722 and 1453. The later of which seems unlikely considering the strong support from the year 2000 and 2007 highs in the upper 1500s. And also the 1980’s examples took around three quarters to really breakdown while still bouncing around the highs. So if it is a similar period then it could be a volatile time.

   

[pcabc]

Could we be in a period similar to the early 1980’s?

A trendline jumps out at me, but I cannot think of a plausible cause over such a long period.
   

If this line is not broken for a long time yet on a graph of this scale then happy days.

[isatrader]

A trendline jumps out at me, but I cannot think of a plausible cause over such a long period.

If this line is not broken for a long time yet on a graph of this scale then happy days.

I wouldn't put too much in a trendline on that scale and on a logarithmic chart. I think the simple price action is enough on a quarterly scale, and hence if we apply Stage Analysis principles to it, then a continuation breakout like it shows is often retested before moving higher in earnest. So could we be seeing the beginnings of that currently? It's an interesting time in the market.

[pcabc]

I wouldn't put too much in a trendline on that scale and on a logarithmic chart. I think the simple price action is enough on a quarterly scale, and hence if we apply Stage Analysis principles to it, then a continuation breakout like it shows is often retested before moving higher in earnest. So could we be seeing the beginnings of that currently? It's an interesting time in the market.

I wonder if this is just pure conjecture, is it even worth contemplating this? Something interesting happened today though, my new pullback scanner showed more long pullbacks than short ones - even though breakdowns are much more prevalent than breakouts. Even though a long pullback needs to match a volume criteria in my scanner and a short does not. This could be an irrelevance or a fluke. No idea if it is significant.

[isatrader]

The NYSE Percentage of Stocks above their 150 Day Moving Averages chart has reversed to a column of Xs today from below the key 30% level, and so changes to Bull Alert status.

   

[isatrader]

Attached is the updated US equity index charts.

US Stock Indexes

       
           

[isatrader]

Attached is the updated UK and German equity index charts.

UK Stock Indexes

           


German DAX Index

   

[isatrader]

Attached is the updated major commodities charts, Gold (GC), Copper (HG), West Texas Intermediate Crude (CL) and the Dollar Index (DX).