(2014-05-10, 03:53 PM)Tryst Wrote: looking at the sectors chart of percentages of stocks above the 150 day MAs, with 7 out of the 9 being underneath 70% (the two sectors above being the defensive sectors, energy and utilities), would you assume the likelyhood is that the NYSE will follow the NASDAQ lower?
The sector breadth includes both the Nasdaq and NYSE stocks, and it's the weakest it's been since I started following it each week more than a year ago, and so with all sectors falling into the mid range zone between 30% and 70% I'd say it confirms that the market is in Stage 3 currently with two/three of the largest sectors in Stage 4 territory around or below 40%. So my opinion is that this will continue to develop and we will eventually move into Stage 4 across the board as we haven't been to the lower range in any sector since 2011.
Below is the sector breadth charts for 2011/12 and the current 2013/14 so you can compare the two time periods with the market. As you can see, in 2011 most sectors got below 20%, even defensive sectors, and some went below 10%. Compare that to where we are now and you can see that even sectors that have been devastated recently could have a lot further to go.
2011/12
2013/14
isatrader
Fate does not always let you fix the tuition fee. She delivers the educational wallop and presents her own bill - Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.
(2014-05-10, 03:40 PM)Tryst Wrote: Thanks, isatrader. You can see that when the zero line is crossed it indicators the start (there or there abouts) of a new bull/bear market.
Ok, I can see that these are long term indicators, as they do trigger quite some time after true market bottoms/tops.
In one of the Financial Sense Stan Weinstein interviews (can't remember which one) he states that in March/April 2009 it was clear that a market bottom was in as 'all the ducks was lined up' (to quote his words). What indicators would you say Weinstein uses to highlight potential market bottoms?
I suppose the summation index (NYSI) could be one of these as it could indicate a bullish divergence by putting in a higher low while the indexes still moves lower (but other indicators should confirm a bottom, whatever indicators they are). indicating the breath of the market was strengthening.
He uses his "Weight of Evidence" approach that he talks about in the book, where he gauges the market stage using a combination of over 50 indicators and the actual price action. But the key indicators that he uses is the proprietary S&P Surveys and the Secondary Surveys which he mentions briefly on page 77 of the book, which are the percentage of stocks in Stages 1 & 2. Obviously we don't have access to these, but he has said that the Percentage of Stocks above their 30 Week MA (150 day) charts have a strong correlation of around 75-80% to them, and hence why I show those each week in the market breadth thread and the individual sector charts also.
For more idea of the major breadth indicators he uses reread chapter 8 in the book, which talks about the advance decline line, momentum index, new highs new lows etc.
isatrader
Fate does not always let you fix the tuition fee. She delivers the educational wallop and presents her own bill - Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.
Attached is the US Sub Sectors ordered by the weekly percentage change. To see the full list sectioned by major sector, with links through to individual stocks in each sector, go to: http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/indust...ECTOR_SPDR
isatrader
Fate does not always let you fix the tuition fee. She delivers the educational wallop and presents her own bill - Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.
(2014-05-10, 03:40 PM)Tryst Wrote: Thanks, isatrader. You can see that when the zero line is crossed it indicators the start (there or there abouts) of a new bull/bear market.
Ok, I can see that these are long term indicators, as they do trigger quite some time after true market bottoms/tops.
In one of the Financial Sense Stan Weinstein interviews (can't remember which one) he states that in March/April 2009 it was clear that a market bottom was in as 'all the ducks was lined up' (to quote his words). What indicators would you say Weinstein uses to highlight potential market bottoms?
I suppose the summation index (NYSI) could be one of these as it could indicate a bullish divergence by putting in a higher low while the indexes still moves lower (but other indicators should confirm a bottom, whatever indicators they are). indicating the breath of the market was strengthening.
He uses his "Weight of Evidence" approach that he talks about in the book, where he gauges the market stage using a combination of over 50 indicators and the actual price action. But the key indicators that he uses is the proprietary S&P Surveys and the Secondary Surveys which he mentions briefly on page 77 of the book, which are the percentage of stocks in Stages 1 & 2. Obviously we don't have access to these, but he has said that the Percentage of Stocks above their 30 Week MA (150 day) charts have a strong correlation of around 75-80% to them, and hence why I show those each week in the market breadth thread and the individual sector charts also.
For more idea of the major breadth indicators he uses reread chapter 8 in the book, which talks about the advance decline line, momentum index, new highs new lows etc.
Thanks. Stan does allude to those proprietary surveys in his interviews on FS. Does he not show them on his Global Trend Alert releases?
I have the book, but I also find this webpage to be quite useful which covers the key indicators from the book.
