[isatrader]

$GLD Gold developing in late Stage 1 (seven months)., with relative strength versus the S&P 500 gradually approaching the zero line (52 week RS MA)

Continuing to watch for a Stage 2 breakout attempt

   

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Copper forming in late Stage 3 following a failed continuation breakout attempt within the broader range which has formed as an upthrust & test. Approaching pivotal point, potential for Stage 4 attempt.

   

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Light Crude Oil with a change of behaviour over the last few weeks and Relative Strength (RS) weakening and now below the zero line (52 week RS MA). Hence a sign of a change to Stage 3 characteristics for Oil

   

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$IEF US 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF - currently developing in Stage 1

Watching for a Stage 2 breakout attempt

   

[isatrader]

S&P 500 with a change of behaviour over the last week with three Significant Bars to the downside and an increase in supply.

Closed below the 50 day MA, and around 5% above the 200 day MA currently, which could offer support "if" a deeper correction develops.

   

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S&P 500 in late Stage 2, but the equal weight chart has shown a change of behaviour and is below the flattening 30 week MA and so is showing characteristics of early Stage 3.

Whichever is correct, both offer limited opportunities for investors at this point in the cycle

   

[isatrader]

$ARKK Stage 4 breakdown attempt

   

[isatrader]

Effective volume showing first signs of large player participation again today. Note the QID: The ultra short QQQ ETF came off a lot, and small large player bounces in $QQQ $IWM and $SPY

http://effectivevolume.com/content.php?156-etf-review

[isatrader]

   

US Total % Stocks Above their 50 Day, 150 Day & 200 Day Moving Averages Combined

30.06% (-8.11% 1wk)

A further sharp decline this week of over -8%, taking the US average down towards the top of the lower zone. Which as you can see it doesn't reach very often. So Stage 4 on the breadth data alone (below 40%), while the major indexes of the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 main in late Stage 2. So an anomaly to be resolved. 

Status: Difficult Environment


The Point and Figure Chart shows the data most clearly imo and the also the rarity of current level, as the lower zone has only been reached three times in the last 6 years. So presents clear danger as only the generals are left on the field. But also the possibility of new bases being formed for when we come out the over the side again. 

   


20 and 50 day Oscillator

These show the distance that the combined chart is from the 20 day MA and 50 day MA on the chart. Above the zero is positive environment and below is a difficult / negative environment 

       


NYSE Total % Stocks Above their 50 Day, 150 Day & 200 Day Moving Averages Combined

37.21% (-8.33% 1wk)

       


Nasdaq Total % Stocks Above their 50 Day, 150 Day & 200 Day Moving Averages Combined

22.90% (-7.89% 1wk)

       

[isatrader]

Totals for the week:

+222 double top stock breakouts
-1354 double bottom stock breakdowns

-1132 net breakouts - breakdowns

   

The cumulative line broke down this week below multiple previous lows from the range that's formed over the year. So is in bearish territory and hence suggests continuing with a Defensive strategy.

Status: Difficult Environment


Cumulative Point & Figure Breakouts - Breakdowns Distance Above / Below its 20 day MA

   


Cumulative Point & Figure Breakouts - Breakdowns MA Momentum Oscillators

Most of the Oscillators are at levels similar to late 2018

               

[isatrader]

The purpose of the RS tables is to track the short, medium and long term RS changes of the individual groups to find the new leadership earlier than the crowd.

100 is strongest, 0 is weakest

You can find out which stocks are in each industry group by going to https://stockcharts.com/freech... and clicking on the name of the group

       


1 week, 2 week, 4 week and 12 week RS changes

               


Unsurprisingly the strongest groups where defensive areas this week. But of note was Home Construction $DJUSHB which came up in the watchlist stocks on Thursday and moved into the top 10 for overall group RS this week. Potentially in Phase D of the base structure.

       

[isatrader]

% above +1x ATR(21 day) = 4.40%
% below -1xATR(21 day) = 44.73%

% above +1x ATR holding in the lower extremes with only 4.40% of S&P 1500 stocks above the +1x ATR level. The % below -1x ATR dropped from 72% to 44% by week end.