RE: Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis and Market Breadth - Technical Analysis
US Financial sector
1. Price looks like it is just starting to make a continuation.
2. No divergence on the advance / decline line.
3. New highs - new lows is posative. Lower than it has been, but certainly has not been negative since the 2020 crash.
4. McClellan Oscillator is positive, but nearly overbought. Same for its volume counterpart, 5. The Summation indicies are negative but moving positive.
6. % stocks above their various MAs are high.
7. The Silver Cross Index (% 20 day SMA versus 50 day EMA) is at about 70%. It was high and then pulled back.
8. The Gold Cross Index (50 day EMA v 200 day EMA) was near 100% for a while. Slight recent dip now though.
Generally positive, but the Gold and Silver Cross Indicies need to be kept an eye on.
Effective Volume in the $QQQ showing a strong positive divergence over the last few days between the small and large players. With large players accumulating while the small players have been distributing. Less clear difference in the $SPY and $IWM though.
isatrader
Fate does not always let you fix the tuition fee. She delivers the educational wallop and presents her own bill - Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.
(This post was last modified: 2021-10-11, 11:38 PM by pcabc.)
RE: Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis and Market Breadth - Technical Analysis
S&P500 versus Russell 300 Market Breadth*
*approximately, as I've not updated the list of components for the Russell 3000 - I think I did it manually last time...
Note, from when I have looked up the A/D line and compared the Russell 3000 versus the NYSE, the Russell 3000 is more pessimistic.
1. Looks like lower highs and lower lows forming. Not penetrated the 150 day MA yet though. So weak.
2. The Advance / Decline line has diverged. The Advancing / Declining Volume line is stronger, but is no higher than it was in April, so it is really diverging as well. Not a good sign.
3. New highs - new lows is still positive, but small. Weakly posative.
4. Weinstein Momentum is positive but has been declining. Similar for the 1% Advance / Decline, 5., which is the same calculation but with a 200 day EMA rather than SMA. The 1% A/D appears though to have leveled off rather than cross below the zero line. Weakly positive.
6. & 7. show the McClellan Oscillator and its volume version crossing from posative to zero, but they are at the point of crossing, so not negative yet perhaps, but perhaps tomorrow. So it looks like it will be negative.
8. & 9. the McClellan Summation Index and its volume sibling are negative but gaining strength. However, since these are a plot of cumulative values of the McClellan Oscillators then if 6&7 dip negative these will go back down.
10. & 11. % stocks above the 20 and 50 day EMAs are about 50%, neutral, but 65% is of stocks are above their 200 day EMA, 12., and although this lower than the first half of the year it has strengthened over the last few weeks which is a positive sign.
13. Silver Cross Index is at 50% which is neutral but has been increasing, a good sign. 14. Gold Cross Index had been on a long slow decline since spring, a negative sign, but has rapidly poked back up above 70%. Whether this is real or a glicth in my calculations, which are new, I am unsure.
Overal it looks like there is a little strengthening in the short term, compared to the index price that has been dropping. Specifically there are signs of recent strengthening if the % stocks above their EMAs, Silver and Gold Cross Indicies are true, and some increase in the McClennan Summation Indicies. But this is very recent, in the longer term the breadth has been decreasing. A mixed bag.
Renewable Energy Group $DWCREE with strong RS today in late Stage 1, and moving up through the middle of the Group RS table. Watching for Stage 2 breakouts / continuations from individual stocks in the group
isatrader
Fate does not always let you fix the tuition fee. She delivers the educational wallop and presents her own bill - Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.
$BEKE is potentially a rare example of the Stage 4B- Sub stage, the definition of which is:
"Stage 4B- Although not yet 'officially' in Stage 1A, stock has now seen its low for the cycle."
It made a capitulation low in August on heavy volume as a Selling Climax (SC), where institutional players began their accumulation campaign. So the reason for the Stage 4B- rating is that the sell off was so extreme that it will take a long time to develop into a Stage 1 base
Relative strength of Technology sector industry groups since the 4th October swing low in the Nasdaq. Renewables $DWCREE group leading the rebound, followed by the Software $DJUSSW group
isatrader
Fate does not always let you fix the tuition fee. She delivers the educational wallop and presents her own bill - Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.
