[marry123]

S+P is now breaking above the 61.8% retracement level from its drop. In 2000 and 20008 the stock market made it up to the 61.8% retracement level before tanking. Let's see what happens next but to me it looks like the market saw its bottom in March and we are getting a V bottom as horrendous GDP and unemployment #s mean absolutely nothing to the stock market.

[isatrader]

S+P is now breaking above the 61.8% retracement level from its drop. In 2000 and 20008 the stock market made it up to the 61.8% retracement level before tanking. Let's see what happens next but to me it looks like the market saw its bottom in March and we are getting a V bottom as horrendous GDP and unemployment #s mean absolutely nothing to the stock market.

Looks that way so far. Theres been a number of short term breadth improvements that I've highlighted and so I've been looking for potential constructive setups for short term trades, as there's been a lot of short term cup and handle patterns forming in individual stock charts. But it's all a process, as my S&P 500 short is still well above its stop loss. So the recent range hasn't broken yet, its just had a few peaks above it. So nothing is clear yet.

It's a big week this week for earnings. Lots of the major companies are reporting, and the fed is talking later today too. So I think we'll get some direction by the weekend.

[marry123]

This is the big weakness with the stage analysis method after a market crash, having to wait and watch stocks go up 50-75%+ waiting for the S+P to get over the 30 MA weekly. My worry now is that it makes it over the 30 MA weekly as more and more get bullish then it takes the next leg lower which would mean the smart money bought in March on extremely oversold indicators and made huge returns while stage analysis folks who follow the Weinstein method religiously sit and continue to wait and then risk buying right before the next leg lower (if there is to be a next leg lower).

[isatrader]

This is the big weakness with the stage analysis method after a market crash, having to wait and watch stocks go up 50-75%+ waiting for the S+P to get over the 30 MA weekly. My worry now is that it makes it over the 30 MA weekly as more and more get bullish then it takes the next leg lower which would mean the smart money bought in March on extremely oversold indicators and made huge returns while stage analysis folks who follow the Weinstein method religiously sit and continue to wait and then risk buying right before the next leg lower (if there is to be a next leg lower).

Every method has strengths and weaknesses. Stage Analysis is not about catching bottoms. But if you traded it right then you would have been rotated into others areas of strength as stocks weakened like gold or treasuries while the market was falling. Or you would have captured the far bigger down move by shorting the Stage 4 decline in individual stocks.

I feel like you're focusing on the far smaller up move, as the majority of markets and stocks remain heavily down from where they were in February. So although the bottom fishers have done great in certain stocks. They are probably still sitting on heavy loses to their portfolios as they were likely fully invested in February.

Everyone trades it differently, but for my part it got me out of stocks in January and I moved into precious metals, with the majority in physical gold, as I don't really like to short. So I'm quite content to get back in gradually as constructive setups appear, with a focus on the stocks and sectors that have outperformed during the crisis, as they will likely be the new leaders and continue higher once there is a full recovery.

[marry123]

This is the big weakness with the stage analysis method after a market crash, having to wait and watch stocks go up 50-75%+ waiting for the S+P to get over the 30 MA weekly. My worry now is that it makes it over the 30 MA weekly as more and more get bullish then it takes the next leg lower which would mean the smart money bought in March on extremely oversold indicators and made huge returns while stage analysis folks who follow the Weinstein method religiously sit and continue to wait and then risk buying right before the next leg lower (if there is to be a next leg lower).

Every method has strengths and weaknesses. Stage Analysis is not about catching bottoms. But if you traded it right then you would have been rotated into others areas of strength as stocks weakened like gold or treasuries while the market was falling. Or you would have captured the far bigger down move by shorting the Stage 4 decline in individual stocks.

I feel like you're focusing on the far smaller up move, as the majority of markets and stocks remain heavily down from where they were in February. So although the bottom fishers have done great in certain stocks. They are probably still sitting on heavy loses to their portfolios as they were likely fully invested in February.

All  valid points you make. Yes, I have been focussing on the up move in the NASAQ and S+P watching many stocks make very large moves higher; however,  if we do get over the 30 MA on S+P and DOW then maybe that will be the signal that this is indeed a new bull market starting with much higher highs to come and that this was not just a strong bear market bounce.

[malaguti]

This is the big weakness with the stage analysis method after a market crash, having to wait and watch stocks go up 50-75%+ waiting for the S+P to get over the 30 MA weekly. My worry now is that it makes it over the 30 MA weekly as more and more get bullish then it takes the next leg lower which would mean the smart money bought in March on extremely oversold indicators and made huge returns while stage analysis folks who follow the Weinstein method religiously sit and continue to wait and then risk buying right before the next leg lower (if there is to be a next leg lower).

Hi Marry, I'd reiterate what ISA has just mentioned
if you look at other markets you should be seeing Bonds, Gilts and gold all doing exceptionally well which isn't surprising as equities stumble the more defensive side of your portfolio should be in play whilst the equity markets catch up. 
I see technology (Nasdaq) sector in stage 1
diversification is key in my opinion

[isatrader]

All  valid points you make. Yes, I have been focussing on the up move in the NASAQ and S+P watching many stocks make very large moves higher; however,  if we do get over the 30 MA on S+P and DOW then maybe that will be the signal that this is indeed a new bull market starting with much higher highs to come and that this was not just a strong bear market bounce.

That may be the case, but a V recovery straight to new highs (in the overall market) is still very low odds imo (except the Nasdaq 100), as the high volatility we have, will likely continue throughout the year, which could mean multiple sharp declines still as a Stage 1 base forms, which will give many opportunities to get into strong leading stocks already in early Stage 2.

Attached is the year to date performance of the major indexes.

       

[marry123]

All  valid points you make. Yes, I have been focussing on the up move in the NASAQ and S+P watching many stocks make very large moves higher; however,  if we do get over the 30 MA on S+P and DOW then maybe that will be the signal that this is indeed a new bull market starting with much higher highs to come and that this was not just a strong bear market bounce.

That may be the case, but a V recovery straight to new highs (in the overall market) is still very low odds imo (except the Nasdaq 100), as the high volatility we have, will likely continue throughout the year, which could mean multiple sharp declines still as a Stage 1 base forms, which will give many opportunities to get into strong leading stocks already in early Stage 2.

Thanks, Isa. If you have any Canadian stocks on your radar that you think fit the bill that are either in early stage 2 or in stage 1 with potential for breaking out please post them if you can. Maybe you have some kind of screener you know of that can find Canadian stocks in those stages? I only have Canadian dollars so miss out on all the big moves in the US tech/other stocks (only real good tech stock in Canada has been SHOP but not about to by it right now).

Canadian Pacific (railroad co.) is a Canadian company (attached)that if it breaks above its 30 MA and the TSX/S+P can get over their 30 MA weekly looks like a buy long. Do you agree?

Thanks.