(2014-12-08, 04:01 AM)CH868 Wrote: I was wondering if stage analysis would work on futures markets and what technical indicators to use along with the price chart
Yep, Stan talks about it at the back of the book on page 330, so have a read through of that. He's says you need to speed things up and use the Daily chart with a 40 day MA, but everything else you normally have on the Daily SA chart is the same - so volume and relative performance.
isatrader
Fate does not always let you fix the tuition fee. She delivers the educational wallop and presents her own bill - Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.
(2014-12-08, 04:01 AM)CH868 Wrote: I was wondering if stage analysis would work on futures markets and what technical indicators to use along with the price chart
Yep, Stan talks about it at the back of the book on page 330, so have a read through of that. He's says you need to speed things up and use the Daily chart with a 40 day MA, but everything else you normally have on the Daily SA chart is the same - so volume and relative performance.
Thank isatrader. I have the book but I don't know how I miss it. One more question, if I were trading futures, how I do I create the relative strength chart on StockChart ? For example, if I were trading crude oil what I do choose under parameter and do I set the MA to 40 day for the relative strength chart ? (I don't have subscription for stockchart)
(2014-12-08, 04:01 AM)CH868 Wrote: I was wondering if stage analysis would work on futures markets and what technical indicators to use along with the price chart
Hi CH868,
I was taught about futures markets for about 18 months and moving averages (which is the key ingredient for staged analysis) wasn't brought into it at all. It was purely chart patterns and volume. The guy was called, Scott Pluschau.
Other may have others to add, but what I have found following both FTSE equity charts and futures charts is below...
Futures: heavy chart pattern based (wedges, triangles, flags, trend lines (inc. sloping trendlines. Volume.
Stocks: Heavy moving averages based when in a trend, volume, relative strength.
(2014-12-08, 04:01 AM)CH868 Wrote: I was wondering if stage analysis would work on futures markets and what technical indicators to use along with the price chart
Hi CH868,
I was taught about futures markets for about 18 months and moving averages (which is the key ingredient for staged analysis) wasn't brought into it at all. It was purely chart patterns and volume. The guy was called, Scott Pluschau.
Other may have others to add, but what I have found following both FTSE equity charts and futures charts is below...
Futures: heavy chart pattern based (wedges, triangles, flags, trend lines (inc. sloping trendlines. Volume.
Stocks: Heavy moving averages based when in a trend, volume, relative strength.
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isatrader
Fate does not always let you fix the tuition fee. She delivers the educational wallop and presents her own bill - Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.
I was looking for word expectancy in this forum and did not find one.
I am sure somebody made at least 50 trades using this method. Could anyone calculate expectancy of this method?
According to this formula:
Expectancy = (W% x Ave W) – (L% x Ave L)
The expectancy number tells you how much money you would expect to win over many trades. The best way to get these statistics is to backtest your trading strategy, or employ your trading strategy with a demo account. Do this for many, many trades (at least 50), and then plug in the numbers.
Let’s look at a trader, Jeff, as an example:
Let’s say that trader Jeff has a trading system that he backtests manually in a demo account for six months, with over 900 trades, and he gets the following statistics.
W% – 70%
L% – 30%
Ave W – $200
Ave L – $420
Calculating expectancy, Jeff sees that (0.7 x 200) – (0.3 x 420) = $140 – $126 = $14. So, armed with this information, trader Jeff knows that if he takes 100 trades with his system, and the average winning trade is $200, and the average losing trade is $420, with a 70% win rate he is likely to have 70 winning trades, 30 losing trades and he will probably make $1400. How does Jeff know this? He knows this because he knows that (70 x $200) – (30 x $420) = $14,000 – $12,600 = $1,400.
This doesn’t mean trader Jeff will make $1,400. This only means that we would expect him to make $1,400 over 100 trades. Of course Jeff’s real results could be a little better or a little worse, but they are probably going to be very near $1,400 after 100 trades.
(2015-01-03, 02:24 PM)Haridas Wrote: I was looking for word expectancy in this forum and did not find one.
I am sure somebody made at least 50 trades using this method. Could anyone calculate expectancy of this method?
I'd be surprised if you did find it, as Weinstein's method is not an automated method, and requires a certain amount of discretionary judgement by the trader or investor following it as well as the technical setups, and so every person will have a different result even if they trade the exact same stocks. My personal experience with the method has been quite favorable, and has continued to improve over the last few years as I've come to understand the method better, and weed out my earlier mistakes. All of which can be seen in my journal thread where I post my trades.
This website and my previous thread on T2W have been a way for me to learn the method in much greater depth, by interactions with other people applying it, and working through some of the more grey areas that the book only briefly touched on.
At the end of the day, the method has been around for over 30 years and is still highly regarded today as it is based on some timeless principles of price action, volume, relative performance versus the market/sector, support & resistance, and the weight of evidence from the market breadth gauges that show whats going on under the surface of the market, such as the advance decline line, new highs - new lows etc.
Weinstein's monthly institutional newsletter, the Global Trend Alert is still available today and costs around $60,000 a year, and so is out of reach of the average investor, but the fact that it's lasted for over 20 years speaks volumes imo.
So does Weinstein's method have an edge? I believe so, from my years of studying it, but it's going to take me many more years to be able to prove that statistically with a significant sample size, as I trade the investor method, and hence try to only invest in a certain amount of stocks that meet the A+ criteria when the market conditions are in alignment.
One of the purposes of this website when I started it, was to forward test the method. So I'd recommend taking the time to study the various threads as I think it shows that it is a solid timeless method, that if followed correctly can produce some outstanding results. But I'd emphasize the followed correctly part, as many people only follow small parts of it and so don't take the time to fully understand it.
isatrader
Fate does not always let you fix the tuition fee. She delivers the educational wallop and presents her own bill - Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.
One more question, if I were trading futures, how I do I create the relative strength chart on StockChart ? For example, if I were trading crude oil what I do choose under parameter and do I set the MA to 40 day for the relative strength chart ? (I don't have subscription for stockchart)
