[malaguti]

I have several motivations.  To see if I can do it well, to see if I can get an indicator that helps me not make bad entries, possible use in screening and perhaps help with market breadth estimations.  I did wonder whether I could use such an indicator with an index / sector ETFs using the investors method?  I'm trying to whittle down the subjectivity, but man-in-the-loop is required as noisy data, or patterns you did not have in mind designing the filter always seem to get through.

yes, and mine too, as well being able to categorically identify the profitability

I don't think the drop in 2016 is a stage 4, but at the end of the day who cares?
we would have been taken out with our stop loss anyway. so it all becomes pretty moot to be honest trying to worry about a stage 3 or stage 4 exit as we should have taken our profit by then. and the stop loss is going to be nigh on impossible to really get right, so all we're doing it for is the entry

The close was below the falling MA, there are lower highs and lower lows.  On this basis definitely stage 4.    However, stages 2 and 4 are well defined, whereas 1 and 3 seem more subjective.  Since any MA will only be perfectly flat (not rising or falling) using a simple decision based on the position of the close wrt to the MA and its slope will whipsaw around 2 & 4.

I Disagree, I see there is both horizontal support and a long running trendline going back to 2009. there is also just one lower high. it was nothing more than a zig zag/ABC correction in my opinion. anyway, thats the subjectivity of it all. I feel as though we look to move to stage 4 far too quickly. a sloping SMA is just one part of it, we need to have that break of support as confirmation of entry, just in the same way as stage 2

after a point made by ISA, stage 1 and stage 3 have become quite straightforward now as i see it. as soon as you have a close, lower or higher than the SMA, you are in a stage 3 or 1. which makes the stage 2 and 4 the more important to identify

now, if i could code a double or triple top breakout where the SMA on the candle chart is sloping up, i'd be an extremely happy man. and my coding skills are just not good enough. you will be the first to hear by the way if i do manage it!!

Yes, how that works is quite tricky to conceptualise from a coding perspective.  I have a couple of screeners.  One which ranks stocks based on a number of parameters including volume, breakout from channels, MAs and another which detects breakouts from manually entered trendlines. I usually set the trendlines based on the output of the first filter.

I think the core of this would be detecting whether the price today was higher than the upper limit of a channel yesterday / last week.  Effectively automatically setting a flat breakout level.  Won't work for sloped breakout levels.  OTOH I think the flat approach hits many.

indeed, flat is much easier. thats why I chose the donchian channel. we could always put it to the test. choose any stock, where would a break of the 20period donchian get us in. 

I don't think there is a perfect screener.  The best we can do is to use several good screeners.

Just to add PCABC, im enjoying the collaboration with you

[isatrader]

To add to your discussion. I find one of the best ways to help identify the index Stages is to use the Percentage of stocks above their 150 day MA data for that index. For example:

60% and above: Stage 2
41 to 59% range: Stages 1 or 3
Below 40%: Stage 4

These are rough figures. But for the most part are fairly good estimations when combined with significant breakout levels and various other measures that we look for to determine the Stages. So might be a good additional parameter to add to your screener if you can get the data for it as an additional test into your screener.

[badcharts]

I have several motivations.  To see if I can do it well, to see if I can get an indicator that helps me not make bad entries, possible use in screening and perhaps help with market breadth estimations.  I did wonder whether I could use such an indicator with an index / sector ETFs using the investors method?  I'm trying to whittle down the subjectivity, but man-in-the-loop is required as noisy data, or patterns you did not have in mind designing the filter always seem to get through.

yes, and mine too, as well being able to categorically identify the profitability

I don't think the drop in 2016 is a stage 4, but at the end of the day who cares?
we would have been taken out with our stop loss anyway. so it all becomes pretty moot to be honest trying to worry about a stage 3 or stage 4 exit as we should have taken our profit by then. and the stop loss is going to be nigh on impossible to really get right, so all we're doing it for is the entry

The close was below the falling MA, there are lower highs and lower lows.  On this basis definitely stage 4.    However, stages 2 and 4 are well defined, whereas 1 and 3 seem more subjective.  Since any MA will only be perfectly flat (not rising or falling) using a simple decision based on the position of the close wrt to the MA and its slope will whipsaw around 2 & 4.

I Disagree, I see there is both horizontal support and a long running trendline going back to 2009. there is also just one lower high. it was nothing more than a zig zag/ABC correction in my opinion. anyway, thats the subjectivity of it all. I feel as though we look to move to stage 4 far too quickly. a sloping SMA is just one part of it, we need to have that break of support as confirmation of entry, just in the same way as stage 2

after a point made by ISA, stage 1 and stage 3 have become quite straightforward now as i see it. as soon as you have a close, lower or higher than the SMA, you are in a stage 3 or 1. which makes the stage 2 and 4 the more important to identify

now, if i could code a double or triple top breakout where the SMA on the candle chart is sloping up, i'd be an extremely happy man. and my coding skills are just not good enough. you will be the first to hear by the way if i do manage it!!

Yes, how that works is quite tricky to conceptualise from a coding perspective.  I have a couple of screeners.  One which ranks stocks based on a number of parameters including volume, breakout from channels, MAs and another which detects breakouts from manually entered trendlines. I usually set the trendlines based on the output of the first filter.

I think the core of this would be detecting whether the price today was higher than the upper limit of a channel yesterday / last week.  Effectively automatically setting a flat breakout level.  Won't work for sloped breakout levels.  OTOH I think the flat approach hits many.

indeed, flat is much easier. thats why I chose the donchian channel. we could always put it to the test. choose any stock, where would a break of the 20period donchian get us in. 

I don't think there is a perfect screener.  The best we can do is to use several good screeners.

Just to add PCABC, im enjoying the collaboration with you

Hi Guys!

I stumbled on this Mansfield RSI on tradingview.com. It's all good, as long as I stick to that platform. The code is protected.

What I find cool about it, it coded some of the stuff you two are talking about.

Extract from https://www.tradingview.com/v/H6bYp0Zb/ 

"...
BUY & HOLD Conditions (green): 
1. Mansfield Relative Strength is above the zero line 
2. Price is above the Simple Moving Average (30) 
3. Simple Moving Average (30) is rising 

SELL & HOLD Conditions (red): 
1. Mansfield Relative Strength is below the zero line 
2. Price is below the Simple Moving Average (30) 
3. Simple Moving Average (30) is falling 
..."

I would love to have a crack at the code, then start an additonal "dark green" overlay starting when all these additonal conditions are met:
1. Candle close above Ichimoku resistance cloud (for that Stan criteria, no close overhead resistance)
2. First green volume candle with 2x average previous 4 weeks.

Inverse that for a "dark red" overlay when:
1. Candle close below Ichimoku support cloud 
2. Do not need volume confirmation for breakdown Stage 4.

That would bring us one step closer to having a strategy/indicator to play out Stan's framework. Note: there is a"pine" script editor on Tradingview, and I Googled some conversion tools to bring those to amibroker.. maybe more tools out there...

Let me know what you think!

Regards,

Patrick

[malaguti]

Hi Guys!

I stumbled on this Mansfield RSI on tradingview.com. It's all good, as long as I stick to that platform. The code is protected.

What I find cool about it, it coded some of the stuff you two are talking about.

Extract from https://www.tradingview.com/v/H6bYp0Zb/ 

"...
BUY & HOLD Conditions (green): 
1. Mansfield Relative Strength is above the zero line 
2. Price is above the Simple Moving Average (30) 
3. Simple Moving Average (30) is rising 

SELL & HOLD Conditions (red): 
1. Mansfield Relative Strength is below the zero line 
2. Price is below the Simple Moving Average (30) 
3. Simple Moving Average (30) is falling 
..."

I would love to have a crack at the code, then start an additonal "dark green" overlay starting when all these additonal conditions are met:
1. Candle close above Ichimoku resistance cloud (for that Stan criteria, no close overhead resistance)
2. First green volume candle with 2x average previous 4 weeks.

Inverse that for a "dark red" overlay when:
1. Candle close below Ichimoku support cloud 
2. Do not need volume confirmation for breakdown Stage 4.

That would bring us one step closer to having a strategy/indicator to play out Stan's framework. Note: there is a"pine" script editor on Tradingview, and I Googled some conversion tools to bring those to amibroker.. maybe more tools out there...

Let me know what you think!

Regards,

Patrick

thanks Patrick, yes I noticed the indicator on those colourful charts of yours!. I also liked the easy to see mansfield along with the slope
I would like to do the same with prorealtime/amibroker. I have the basics of the stages, so it shouldn't be too difficult in theory
how do you incorporate the cloud into your analysis however?
do you say a stage 4 is below the cloud, stage 2 above ie is that a condition for entry? I know ISA "lovingly" uses the ichi cloud 

[badcharts]

Hi Guys!

I stumbled on this Mansfield RSI on tradingview.com. It's all good, as long as I stick to that platform. The code is protected.

What I find cool about it, it coded some of the stuff you two are talking about.

Extract from https://www.tradingview.com/v/H6bYp0Zb/ 

"...
BUY & HOLD Conditions (green): 
1. Mansfield Relative Strength is above the zero line 
2. Price is above the Simple Moving Average (30) 
3. Simple Moving Average (30) is rising 

SELL & HOLD Conditions (red): 
1. Mansfield Relative Strength is below the zero line 
2. Price is below the Simple Moving Average (30) 
3. Simple Moving Average (30) is falling 
..."

I would love to have a crack at the code, then start an additonal "dark green" overlay starting when all these additonal conditions are met:
1. Candle close above Ichimoku resistance cloud (for that Stan criteria, no close overhead resistance)
2. First green volume candle with 2x average previous 4 weeks.

Inverse that for a "dark red" overlay when:
1. Candle close below Ichimoku support cloud 
2. Do not need volume confirmation for breakdown Stage 4.

That would bring us one step closer to having a strategy/indicator to play out Stan's framework. Note: there is a"pine" script editor on Tradingview, and I Googled some conversion tools to bring those to amibroker.. maybe more tools out there...

Let me know what you think!

Regards,

Patrick

thanks Patrick, yes I noticed the indicator on those colourful charts of yours!. I also liked the easy to see mansfield along with the slope
I would like to do the same with prorealtime/amibroker. I have the basics of the stages, so it shouldn't be too difficult in theory
how do you incorporate the cloud into your analysis however?
do you say a stage 4 is below the cloud, stage 2 above ie is that a condition for entry? I know ISA "lovingly" uses the ichi cloud 

Yo!

When doing some Stan, I used to identify close overhead resitance the "classic" way, drawing a trendline from previous highs.. (I still do that with my monthly chart trading framework).

Enter Ichimoku! (grabbed the cloud idea from Isa...)

The fun part of the cloud, it is mechanical, so I can't "cheat" and "ignore" resistance because I really want in that stock my father in law keeps raving about (and probably easier to program)!

I think the Stage can "pre-break" before the ichimoku cloud.. but the entry , with increased probabilities of not whipsawing back below breakline.. 

Here is my compiled checklist to have the A++ setups (should we be able to code that in an indicator/strategy... ohhhh)

Stan's original triple confirmation
1-  2x vol previous 4-5 weeks (for breakdowns, look from crescendo red volume candles)
2-  break above horizontal breakout line, above rising 30 SMA
3-  Mansfeild increasing, above zero line

More of Stan's comments to improve setup
4- No close overhead resistance (insert Ichimoku here)
5- Harmony of trend on higher time frame (apply Stan or any other framework to confirm this)
6- Harmony (forest to trees) with index > sector > industry > stock 

I think these criterias from Stan were dervide from his observations from what composed the Stages... program these in an indicator/strategy  and the Stage will appear!

Regards,

Patrick

[pcabc]

OK,the quoting has gone mad in this one.  Not to worry.

I don't think the drop in 2016 is a stage 4, but at the end of the day who cares?

we would have been taken out with our stop loss anyway. so it all becomes pretty moot to be honest trying to worry about a stage 3 or stage 4 exit as we should have taken our profit by then. and the stop loss is going to be nigh on impossible to really get right, so all we're doing it for is the entry

The close was below the falling MA, there are lower highs and lower lows.  On this basis definitely stage 4.    However, stages 2 and 4 are well defined, whereas 1 and 3 seem more subjective.  Since any MA will only be perfectly flat (not rising or falling) using a simple decision based on the position of the close wrt to the MA and its slope will whipsaw around 2 & 4.

I Disagree, I see there is both horizontal support and a long running trendline going back to 2009. there is also just one lower high. it was nothing more than a zig zag/ABC correction in my opinion. anyway, thats the subjectivity of it all. I feel as though we look to move to stage 4 far too quickly. a sloping SMA is just one part of it, we need to have that break of support as confirmation of entry, just in the same way as stage 2

Quite, because depite the points I raised, it looks like it is noving sideways rather than a clear trend.  As you say subjectrive so there will always be areas for differences of opinion.  But as you say, detail not necessarily important, it is quite clear that would have been a bad time to go long.

after a point made by ISA, stage 1 and stage 3 have become quite straightforward now as i see it. as soon as you have a close, lower or higher than the SMA, you are in a stage 3 or 1. which makes the stage 2 and 4 the more important to identify

Does that not encourage whipsaws as it will report stage 1/3 if you have a single day dip below a strongly rising MA?  I think however, this depends on the design of the estimator.

...

indeed, flat is much easier. thats why I chose the donchian channel. we could always put it to the test. choose any stock, where would a break of the 20period donchian get us in. 

That has given me an idea, take my doncian channel code and add or subtract the MA as appropriate, so the channel follows the MA.  I'll have try it and see what happens.

I don't think there is a perfect screener.  The best we can do is to use several good screeners.

Just to add PCABC, im enjoying the collaboration with you

Thank you, likewise.  Spurred me to look into trying some stuff.


OK, I've produced a new stage estimator based on Donchian channels.  The trick here has been to use two sets of channels, a longer period one and a shorter period one.  Pseudo code, approximately:

stage = 1/3

Loop:
  If (MA rising and close > MA):
    If (close > previous long channel high):
        stage = 2:
    End if
  End if
  If (close < previous short channel low):
    If (stage = 2):
      stage = 1/3
    End if
  End if

  If (MA falling and close < MA):
    If (close < previous long channel low):
        stage = 4:
    End if
  End if
  If (close > previous short channel high):
    If (stage = 4):
      stage = 1/3
    End if
  End if

I added some additional logic such that if the close was below the rising MA or above the falling MA that it would go to stages 1/3.  However, either I had a bug, or the rule was never hit, or it was hit but had no effect as another rule had hit first.

Charts attached. As before Green = stage 2, grey = 1/3 and red = 4.  On the longer chart it looks like the new filter whipsaws, but this is because I'm using it daily over many years!  Zooming in it appears to indicate 1/3 when the chart is going sideways.


   
   

Forgot to add, 'A' is as my previous post, just for comparison. B & C use channels with hte above logic:
B: Long 150 days, short 90 days
C: Long 150 days, short 30 days.

I prefer C.

[pcabc]

Let me know what you think!

Regards,

Patrick

I can't keep up!  I'll have to come back to this later, some stuff to do.  A lot of good discussion here.

[pcabc]

To add to your discussion. I find one of the best ways to help identify the index Stages is to use the Percentage of stocks above their 150 day MA data for that index. For example:

60% and above: Stage 2
41 to 59% range: Stages 1 or 3
Below 40%: Stage 4

These are rough figures. But for the most part are fairly good estimations when combined with significant breakout levels and various other measures that we look for to determine the Stages. So might be a good additional parameter to add to your screener if you can get the data for it as an additional test into your screener.

ISA, thanks, I need to look at this for my breadth as I don't use those figures right now.  With what I was doing above I was not trying to work in breath.  What I intend to do it  create a graph of my current breadth estimator to see if that gives me a steer on how much faith I should put on the stage estimates.