[Red1324]

Regarding the commodities market, would this be the correct way to analyze the current situation?

On the PrefChart chart we see that Energy and Livestock commodity indices as the top performers. However, all three major commodity indices (CRB, CCI and GSCI) are below zero, which suggests that investing in commodities is not a good idea at the moment(?). If this does not rule out commodities then:

Should we look closer at the Energy commodity sector we see a Stage 1(?) breakout pattern unfolding. The negatives are that there is potential resistance at 390 after the initial breakout of 351 and that the SP500 relative strength is still negative but sloping up. relative strength to GSCI is positive as can be seen on the prefchart.

Looking at the commodities within the energy commodity sector we see that RBOB Gasoline making a potential head and shoulders pattern. However, if prices close above 3.36 it could be a continuation move(?) if all other indicators are in agreement.

Brent Crude Oil has a while to go but if the resistance at 117 is broken it is a buy (could wait for a close above 120 for confirmation) if all other indicators agree.

Crude Oil broke out of a triangle formation 2 weeks ago, which would have been a buy signal since the relative strength to SP500 and GSCI went positive and the volume was above the 52 week EMA, 30WMA was sloping up and cumulative volume gave a buy signal. It is currently making a pullback on the daily to its breakout level.

Heating Oil is rising towards its long-term trendline. If this trendline is broken with a decisive move, volume and positive RS, heating oil could be a potential buy.

Natural Gas has been in a very long downtrend. It has formed a trendline just recently (three touches). 30 WMA is flat and the SP500 and GSCI relative strengths are negative. If the RS turns positive on the break out 4.6 with volume, natural gas would move into stage 2. If the trendline is broken, then it is a Stage 4 continuation move(?). I would also like to add that the volume formation favors an upside move.

I have just read Stan Weinsteins book and am a little confused about analyzing commodities.

The $CRB and $CCI are in Stage 4, but the GSCI Commodity Index ($GNX) is in Stage 1A currently imo.

The Energy Commodity Index ($GJX) is in Stage 2A, but below key resistance still, and the relative performance versus the S&P 500 is still well below the zero line. So you'd want to see confirmation of that with a breakout above the major resistance from the last year. Gasoline looks the same in early Stage 2A imo, but within a multi year sideways Stage 3/1 range. So plenty of resistance in the range to work through.

Natural Gas depends on what you look at, as if you look at the spot price ($NATGAS) it's been in Stage 2 since last September, but is close to breaking down now. But if you look at the ETF (UNG), then it's in Stage 4 again. Which shows the great disparity between the ETF and the spot price.

Anyway, it is possible to use Weinstein's method on commodities, but we have found on here that they have much quicker cycles through the Stages and it even mentions in the book about using a faster 40 day moving average with them (page 333) because of the speed with which they move. Plus there are other factors that influence them that don't effect stocks, so you need to be aware of this when you trade them.

Thanks for the reply. My mistake was looking at the commodities from a longer-term point of view and since they have naturally shorter cycles my analysis was off. I have now added this to my notebook.

Too bad prorealtime doesn't have cci or crb.

[anupam384]

Question for isatrader. I know penny stocks are a different play but is there a thread where people post their picks? Thanks.

[isatrader]

Question for isatrader. I know penny stocks are a different play but is there a thread where people post their picks? Thanks.

The two places for highlighting stocks to watch is the Watchlist - Traders method thread and the Watchlist - Investor method thread. But I don't remember anyone posting any penny stocks as yet.

[theory6453]

"stockcharts doesn't have the Mansfield relative strength available to use, it can only be made by using the price indicator with the ticker divided by the $SPX and adding a 52 week MA as on the attached, plus unless you put an _ symbol in front of the ticker stockcharts uses adjusted prices data."


This question is from an earlier post (5/5/2013) and sorry if it's a stupid question as I am trying to refrain from asking questions until I read thru the forum more, but I'm not sure how to create this custom Relative Strength indicator w/ the 52 week MA in my charts in Stockcharts.com.

Can someone point me in the right direction? I'd like to mimic my charts to look like Isatrader's so I can try to see the same things he's seeing.

Also, is there any tutorial on how to use the forum so I can correctly include the quote from the previous post. Not really sure what I'm doing yet.

Thanks in advance!

[isatrader]

"stockcharts doesn't have the Mansfield relative strength available to use, it can only be made by using the price indicator with the ticker divided by the $SPX and adding a 52 week MA as on the attached, plus unless you put an _ symbol in front of the ticker stockcharts uses adjusted prices data."


This question is from an earlier post (5/5/2013) and sorry if it's a stupid question as I am trying to refrain from asking questions until I read thru the forum more, but I'm not sure how to create this custom Relative Strength indicator w/ the 52 week MA in my charts in Stockcharts.com.

Can someone point me in the right direction? I'd like to mimic my charts to look like Isatrader's so I can try to see the same things he's seeing.

Also, is there any tutorial on how to use the forum so I can correctly include the quote from the previous post. Not really sure what I'm doing yet.

Thanks in advance!

To add the 52 week MA to the price indicator you need to be at least an Extra subscriber on stockcharts, as on the free charts it's doesn't have that option. But if you don't want to pay anything, then some free charting options that can do it are Chartmill.com and freestockcharts.com

I haven't done a tutorial on how to quote a previous message yet, but it's quite simple as all you need to do is click the reply button which is in the bottom right of the message that you want to quote.

Or alternatively you can copy and paste the text and add the quote tags around the bit of text you want to quote of which you need to go into the full reply to find.

[theory6453]

"To add the 52 week MA to the price indicator you need to be at least an Extra subscriber on stockcharts, as on the free charts it's doesn't have that option. But if you don't want to pay anything, then some free charting options that can do it are Chartmill.com and freestockcharts.com"

"stockcharts doesn't have the Mansfield relative strength available to use, it can only be made by using the price indicator with the ticker divided by the $SPX and adding a 52 week MA as on the attached, plus unless you put an _ symbol in front of the ticker stockcharts uses adjusted prices data."


Thanks. I am an Extra subscriber on StockCharts. I added the price indicator to my chart and it defaulted to $SPX but am not sure how to add a function so that it divides my ticker symbol price by the $SPX. Would you mind PM'ing me or shooting me an email with a screenshot on how to add it.

Any assistance would be much appreciated!!

[isatrader]

Thanks. I am an Extra subscriber on StockCharts. I added the price indicator to my chart and it defaulted to $SPX but am not sure how to add a function so that it divides my ticker symbol price by the $SPX. Would you mind PM'ing me or shooting me an email with a screenshot on how to add it.

Any assistance would be much appreciated!!

In the Parameters field for the Price Indicator you just need to divide the stock symbol by the S&P 500, which the symbol for the S&P 500 is the $SPX. So for example on the attached chart for Apple you need to put AAPL:$SPX and then create a simple moving average on the Ovelay field with a Parameter of 52 on the weekly chart.

I've attached my weekly and daily charts with the stockcharts settings. So all you need to do is copy the settings on the screenshots exactly, and it will be the same as the ones that I show on here then.

[theory6453]

Thank you sir! Exactly what I was looking for!